طراحی مدل ریاضی زنجیره تأمین زیست توده برای ساخت نیروگاه با وجود اختلال (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
آلایندگی ناشی از دفن زیست توده، سود انرژیهای زیست توده و تقاضای شدید برای انرژی، توجه به شبکه زنجیره تامین زیست توده را بیشتر نموده است. هدف این پژوهش، طراحی مدل شبکه زنجیره تامین زیست توده با رویکرد اقتصادی و زیست مجیطی، برای کاهش هزینه و کربن در شبکه زنحیره تامین زیست توده است. عمده ترین شکافهای پژوهشی برطرف شده عبارتند از تعیین بخشی از زیست تودهها به عنوان خروجیهای مطلوب و نامطلوب و بررسی همزمان اختلال در عرضه مواد اولیه و تقاضای محصول نهایی است. مدل ریاضی، برنامهریزی خطی عدد صحیح مختلط می باشد . تابع اول، کمینه سازی هزینه ها و تابع دوم، کمینه سازی میزان پخش کربن است. برای تک هدفه کردن تابع، تحت عدم قطعیت، از مدل ریاضیTH فازی استفاده گردیده است. عدم قطعیت و اختلال با سناریوسازی بررسی شده است. اعتبارسنجی مدل، در یک مورد مطالعه در استان فارس است. بنا به یافته ها، ساخت چهار نیروگاه با ظرفیتهای متفاوت در غرب و شرق شیراز، جهرم و کازرون، توجیه پذیر است . مدل پیشنهادی توانست به میزان 1/2درصدپیش بینی دقیقتری از میزان برق تولیدی ارائه نماید. تجزیه و تحلیل حساسیت بر روی پارامترهای روش TH و بر روی تغییر مقادیر تقاضای مشتریان، مطابق پیش بینی ها است. نتیجه اینکه مدل پیشنهادی، عملکرد خوبی دارد. و توانسته است با ادغام رویکرد اقتصادی و زیستمحیطی، از نظر هزینه، مقرون به صرفه باشد و در کاهش میزان انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای جذاب باشد وهم اینکه برای ایجاد امنیت و پایداری انرژی، موفق عمل نمایدDesigning a mathematical model of the biomass supply chain to build a power plant despite disruption
The importance of mass biology has increased due to pollution caused by biomass burial, the profitability of biomass energy, and the demand for energy in the supply chain network. The goal of this research is to design a model for the biomass supply chain network with an economic and ecological approach to reduce costs and carbon emissions. Research gaps have been addressed, which include determining desired and undesired process outputs, along with simultaneously examining material supply disruptions and final product demand. The mathematical model used is a mixed-integer linear programming model. The primary objective is to minimize costs, and the secondary objective is to minimize carbon emissions. To address this in a single-target function under uncertainty, the fuzzy TH mathematical model has been employed. Uncertainty and disruptions have been studied through scenario building. The model's validation includes a case study in Fars province, where the findings justify the construction of four power plants. The proposed model improved the accuracy of electricity production predictions by 2.1 percent. An analysis and sensitivity study was performed on the TH method's parameters and changes in customer demand values according to predictions. The results show that the proposed model performs well, achieving cost-effectiveness through the integration of economic and ecological approaches. It also successfully reduces greenhouse gas emissions, enhances energy security and stability, and demonstrates a positive impact.
Introduction
More than 70 thousand tons of biomass waste are produced in Iran daily. These waste products result in the generation of methane gas and carbon dioxide, leading to severe air pollution and climate changes in the country. Given that 14% of Iran's electricity production comes from hydropower, and the nation is grappling with drought, electricity generation has decreased, leading to government-imposed power cuts, particularly in industrial areas. To address the need for biomass resource investment in energy production, the main challenge is the absence of an optimization model for the biomass supply chain that encompasses all relevant factors. Hence, this research aims to design a flexible optimization model for the biomass supply chain, offering insights to investors on how to produce energy with reduced costs and lower carbon emissions. Key research gaps identified are as follows: 1-Simultaneously addressing uncertainty arising from disruptions in the first two levels of the supply chain, encompassing biomass supply from raw materials, and examining the fourth level - the customer level - by defining scenarios. 2- Innovatively considering capacity levels in the context of the biomass supply chain, a subject not widely explored before. 3- Focusing on the production of bioenergy in conjunction with by-products. 4- Deliberating on the definition of desired outputs at separation centers. 5- Highlighting the importance of considering undesired outputs at separation centers. 6- Proposing a stochastic-probabilistic-fuzzy planning approach to enhance flexibility, particularly in managing risks and operational disruptions.
Research Method
This network encounters two types of uncertainty, both of which cause disruptions. Consequently, four scenarios have been devised to address these disruptions: 1- The scenario involving reduced raw material supply due to drought's impact. 2- The scenario in which electricity demand decreases in response to specific conditions. 3- The scenario where both of the aforementioned scenarios occur simultaneously. 4- A scenario without any disturbances. As a result, a resilient model has been developed to manage disturbances while ensuring environmental sustainability. The proposed model is a mixed-integer linear programming mathematical model with two objective functions: cost minimization and carbon emission minimization. The model is solved using the exact solution method in conjunction with Gomes software. To address function targeting under uncertainty, the fuzzy TH mathematical model has been employed. The model's validation has been examined through a case study in Fars province.
Findings
Several findings have emerged from the study: The construction of four power plants is recommended, each to be located at one of the ten proposed sites, with each having a different capacity. The proposal includes the establishment of four biomass separation centers. Different types of biomass are utilized in the power plants in varying proportions. Biomass transportation involves three types of transporters with capacities of ten tons, fifteen tons, and twenty tons. The quantity of these transporters varies across different separation centers and power plants. Electricity is supplied to six different applicants. The quantity of fertilizer produced varies according to different scenarios and time periods. The sensitivity analysis reveals that increasing the coefficient of the first objective function results in a decrease in the values of the first objective function. Conversely, decreasing the coefficient of the second objective function simultaneously leads to an increase in the value of the second objective function.
Conclusion
The model designed for this purpose is a sustainable development model that encompasses two of the three sustainability aspects, namely, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and the minimization of economic costs. Therefore, it is a resilient model that employs a scenario-based approach to address various forms of uncertainty. In the case of this study, raw materials were procured from nine out of ten biomass supply centers, indicating resilience in terms of biomass supply. The model optimally allocates resources among the supply chain members to minimize greenhouse gas emissions while also considering cost-effectiveness. The inclusion of favorable and unfavorable outputs in the model impacts the annual electricity production of each power plant. Without these variables, the model would overestimate electricity production. Sensitivity analysis reveals the trade-off between objective functions, confirming the model's correct and logical performance. Therefore, the model's validity is established. It is recommended that, in further development of this model, specific travel times for trucks between locations be included in the model.
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