تحلیل پویایی سیستم توسعه پایدار مناطق محروم ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
پژوهش حاضر به طراحی مدل پویایی سیستم توسعه پایدار مناطق محروم و شبیه سازی توسعه منطقه محروم دلفان در افق ده ساله با مشارکت برنامه ریزان توسعه منطقه ای به منظور شناسایی سیاست های محرومیت زدایی پرداخته است. با توجه به نتایج تحلیل حساسیت مدل، راهبردهای پایداری اقتصادی در دو دسته سیاست توسعه زیرساخت های عمرانی و سرمایه گذاری در کشاورزی و دامپروری، خدمات گردشگری و صنعت و معدن؛ پایداری اجتماعی در چهار دسته سیاست ارتقاء آگاهی عمومی، توسعه کارآفرینی، توانمندسازی اجتماع محور و سیاست های تشویقی توسعه کارآفرینی و پایداری محیطی در سه دسته سیاست پایبندی به الزامات محیط زیستی، پایداری منابع آب و پایداری منابع خاک شناسایی گردید. در ادامه با اعمال جداگانه و ترکیبی راهبردها با توجه به منابع مالی در دسترس؛ رفتار متغیرهای مدل مورد بررسی و مقایسه قرار گرفت. اعمال سیاست های منتخب نشان می دهد با صرف منابع مالی در حدود 6 هزار میلیارد ریال در منطقه در طول سه سال نهاد محرومیت زدایی و نیز مشارکت استانداری و سایر دستگاه های اجرایی استان لرستان در توسعه زیرساخت های منطقه و مشارکت بخش خصوصی در سرمایه گذاری توسعه اقتصادی؛ روند افزایشی فقر شهری و روستایی با حفظ اراضی قابل کشت، مراتع و جنگل ها پس از یک تاخیر پنج ساله نزولی گردد و آثار فقر و محرومیت به صورت پایدار در منطقه از بین می رود.Dynamic analysis of sustainable development system of deprived regions of Iran
IntroductionRegional justice, disenfranchisement and sustainable development and reducing the gap between the rich and the poor were among the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, which, despite significant progress, are still considered important issues in the society. Sustainable development is one of the most important strategies of the regional planning system, which has received much attention in recent decades. Sustainable regional development, considering access to natural resources, is proposed in the area of economic and social development of the region. So that the economic development of the region should remain at a level that does not exceed the environmental capacity of the region and lead to the improvement of the quality of human life. This research seeks to identify the sustainable development policies of the deprived areas of Delfan with regard to the available financial resources based on the dynamics of the regional sustainable development system.Methodology This study is an application of system dynamics in sustainable development policies of deprived areas. The system dynamics (SD) is for the purpose of modeling complex systems in order to understand and recognize the situation of the problem for the policy makers and to test and ensure the effectiveness of the proposed policies. Therefore, this study has designed the dynamic model of the sustainable development system of deprived areas and simulated the development of the deprived area of Delfan in a ten-year horizon with the participation of regional development planners in order to identify deprivation policies.Results and Discussion After examining the issue of regional sustainable development and policies to reduce poverty in the deprived and less developed regions of the country, with the participation of the beneficiaries of Delfan regional development in Lorestan province, the issue of sustainable development of the deprived region in three economic subsystems and infrastructures sustainable development of deprived areas, social subsystem of sustainable development of deprived areas and environmental subsystem of sustainable development of deprived areas were identified. The economic subsystem and infrastructures of sustainable development of the deprived area deals with the financial flow of deprivation removal resources and its expenses in the infrastructures. The financial resources for the removal of deprivation in Delfan region, according to the financial resources available to the institution of deprivation removal, are government financial resources and the participation of private sector investors. In accordance with the situation of the deprived area of Delfan and considering the capacities of natural resources, economic investments and entrepreneurship were considered in three sectors of agricultural and animal husbandry entrepreneurship development, tourism service entrepreneurship development and mining entrepreneurship development. Considering the creation of job opportunities and employees in different sectors, the amount of household income and the amount of urban and rural poverty in the region were considered. The social subsystem of the sustainable development of the deprived area deals with the dynamics of the urban and rural population and migration and unemployment and the active workforce in the agriculture and animal husbandry sectors, tourism services and mines. The subsystem of natural resources and environment of the region focuses on the protection of lands, pastures and forests and water resources with regard to economic development. According to the subsystems of the model and the identified factors and relationships of each subsystem, the causal model was designed and the intensifying and moderating loops of the problem were explained.Conclusion According to the results of the sensitivity analysis of the model, economic sustainability strategies in the two policy categories of civil infrastructure development and investment in agriculture, tourism services and industry and mining; Social sustainability in four policy categories promotion of public awareness, entrepreneurship development, community-oriented empowerment and encouraging policies for entrepreneurship development and environmental sustainability in three policy categories of adherence to environmental requirements, sustainability of water resources and sustainability of soil resources was identified. In the following, by applying separate and combined strategies according to available financial resources; The behavior of model variables was investigated and compared. The implementation of selected policies shows that by spending financial resources of about 6 thousand billion rials in the region during three years by the institution of deprivation reduction and also the participation of the governorate and other executive bodies of Lorestan province in the development of the region's infrastructure and private sector participation in economic development investment; The increasing trend of urban and rural poverty will decrease after a five-year delay by preserving arable lands, pastures and forests, and the effects of poverty and deprivation will disappear permanently in the region. The proposed applied model of system dynamics in the policy of sustainable development of deprived resions and its efficiency is presented in the deprived resion of Delfan.
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