مطالب

Objective: This study aims to support Iran’s transition to renewable energy by identifying optimal sites for renewable power plant deployment in Kerman province. The aim is to design a decision-support framework incorporating stakeholder values and dynamic system behaviors to guide policy and investment under multiple scenarios. Methods: An integrated Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) framework was developed. Phase 1 involved interviews with 15 experts (engineering, economics, and environmental science) to derive stakeholder values, translated into criteria like solar radiation, ecological sensitivity, cost, social acceptance, and grid resilience. Legal/environmental filters narrowed 39 locations to six feasible sites. Phase 2 employed ABM to simulate interactions among suppliers, government, and consumers under three policy scenarios: (1) limited local sales, (2) guaranteed government purchases, and (3) competitive energy market sales. Results: The simulations demonstrated that Scenario 3 (energy market sales) resulted in the highest levels of energy output and job creation, particularly at high-potential locations E and F. The model also highlighted how adaptive financial mechanisms, such as targeted subsidies and tax incentives, can shape investor and supplier behavior in favor of sustainable deployment. Conclusion: The proposed VFT-ABM framework offers a flexible and context-sensitive tool for renewable energy planning in decentralized systems. It effectively balances economic, social, and environmental goals and can be replicated in other regions facing similar energy transition challenges. Strategic policy design, especially market-driven approaches coupled with incentive structures, is critical for mobilizing private sector participation.