بررسی تأثیر احساسات سرمایه گذاران بر انتظارات آن ها از سودهای آتی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
سرمایه گذاران همواره ترکیبی از رفتار عقلایی و احساسات خود را در سرمایه گذاری ها لحاظ می کنند. در برخی شرایط خاص ممکن است رفتارهای احساسی سرمایه گذاران بر رفتارهای عقلایی آن ها غلبه کرده که این می تواند منجر به تغییر در انتظارات آن ها از سود های آتی شود. هدف اصلی این پژوهش بررسی تأثیر احساسات سرمایه گذاران بر انتظارات سرمایه گذاران از سودهای آتی است. برای رسیدن به مقصود پژوهش، طی سال های 1390 – 1399 تعداد 163 شرکت پذیرفته شده در بازار سرمایه انتخاب شدند. بر مبنای رگرسیون خطی چندگانه فرضیه های پژوهش مورد آزمون قرار می گیرد. دستاوردهای پژوهش نشان داد که بین احساسات سرمایه گذاران و پایداری زیان ها رابطه معناداری وجود ندارد. به عبارتی، احساسات سرمایه گذاران نمی تواند منجر به تغییر معنادار پایداری زیان ها شود. همچنین، نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که بین احساسات سرمایه گذاران و پایداری سودها رابطه معناداری وجود ندارد. در حقیقت، احساسات سرمایه گذاران نمی تواند منجر به تغییر معنادار پایداری سودها شود. دستاوردهای در پژوهش حاضر نشان داد که سرمایه گذاران درک صحیحی از سودهای (و زیان های) آتی ندارند که بر اساس آن تصمیم گیری نمایند. عدم درک مناسب سرمایه گذاران از سودها و زیان های آتی، به افشای پایین اطلاعات شرکت ها فعال در بازار سرمایه و رفتار احساسی سرمایه گذاران برمی گردد که می تواند توسط فعالان بازار سرمایه و نهادهای مربوطه بررسی و ریشه یابی شود و نسبت به کاهش این مشکل فعالیت های بیشتری انجام شد.Examining the Impact of Investors' Sentiment on Their Expectations of Future Earnings
Investors' decision-making processes are influenced by a combination of rational behavior and emotions, particularly during special circumstances where emotional behaviors may overshadow rationality. This study aims to examine the influence of investor sentiments on their expectations of future earnings. A sample of 163 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period from 2011 to 2020 was selected to achieve the research objective. Multiple linear regression was used to test the research hypotheses. The results indicate that investors' sentiments do not have a significant relationship with the stability of losses, suggesting that emotional behaviors do not lead to substantial changes in loss stability. Similarly, there is no significant relationship between investors' sentiments and the stability of earnings. Consequently, investors lack a proper understanding of future earnings and losses, which impacts their decision-making processes. Addressing this issue requires relevant officials to take measures to enhance investors' awareness of the overall market and the fundamentals of listed companies, thereby fostering a more informed investment environment. 1- IntroductionBehavioral finance theories underscore the pivotal role of investors' emotional behaviors in determining asset values, challenging the conventional notion that changes in security values are solely driven by fundamental factors (Kim & Ha, 2010). This study aims to investigate the influence of investors' emotions on their expectations of future earnings and to examine how emotions at the capital market level lead to misjudgments in stock valuations. To achieve these objectives, we explore the relationship between investors' emotions and their expectations of future earnings. Specifically, we anticipate that investors may perceive losses as more stable during periods of diminished sentiment and less stable during periods characterized by heightened sentiment. This difference is expected to be more pronounced for companies operating at a loss compared to profitable companies. Literature Review2-1. Investor sentimentThe emergence of behavioral financial sciences has sparked significant interest among researchers, leading to a plethora of studies investigating the emotional behaviors of investors. Noteworthy contributions in this domain include the works of Baker and Wurgler (2007), Cornell (2017), Hua (2020), and Bilel (2020). In recent years, the field of behavioral finance has witnessed efforts to elucidate the mechanisms through which investors' emotions influence stock values and overall stock market performance. 2-1. Investors' Expectations of Future EarningsInvestors' expectations of future earnings encompass the prevailing sentiments and attitudes held by investors regarding the prospective performance of a company, which can range from optimism to pessimism (Aboody, 2018). It is worth noting that researchers often approach survey-based data with a certain degree of caution due to the potential disparity between survey responses and actual behavioral patterns. Consequently, gauging expectations through trading activities provides a means to discern irrational investor behavior. Statement No. 1 issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Board underscores the significance of profit as a metric employed by investors to assess profitability, dividend-paying capability, forecast future earnings, and extend credit to other firms (Sinha, 2016). Therefore, it is evident that a company's profit margin can exert a notable influence on the stock market. 3-2. Investor Sentiment and Their Expectations of Future EarningsThe present research endeavors to explore the impact of investors' sentiments at the capital market level on the misvaluation of stocks. Specifically, it investigates the relationship between these sentiments and investors' expectations concerning future earnings. In this study, we anticipate that investors may perceive losses as more stable during periods characterized by reduced emotional intensity and less stable during periods marked by heightened emotional sentiment. Furthermore, it is posited that the stability of earnings is lower (higher) during periods of low (high) sentiment, with this disparity being particularly pronounced for loss-making companies as compared to profitable ones.The research hypotheses are articulated as follows:H1: There is a negative and significant relationship between investors' sentiments and the sustainability of losses.H2: There is a positive and significant relationship between investors' sentiments and the stability of earnings.MethodologyThis research falls under the category of post-event analysis, utilizing historical information extracted from companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The statistical population for this study comprises companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange between 2010 and 2019. A carefully selected sample of 1630 company-year observations, was employed for analysis. To test the research hypotheses, composite data were utilized, and multivariate regression models were employed for estimation.ResultsThe first research hypothesis posited that there exists an inverse and statistically significant relationship between investors' sentiments and the sustainability of losses. However, based on the results presented in Table 1, the significance level of the variable representing investors' sentiments surpasses the 5% threshold, indicating that there is no substantial relationship between investors' sentiments and the sustainability of losses. This suggests that investors' emotions do not exert a significant impact on the persistence of losses.Similarly, the second research hypothesis postulated a direct and meaningful relationship between investors' sentiments and the stability of earnings. Yet, the findings in Table 2 reveal that the significance level of the variable related to investors' sentiments exceeds the 5% significance level, signifying that there is no substantial relationship between investors' sentiments and the stability of earnings. In essence, it implies that the sentiments of investors do not wield a significant influence on earnings stability.DiscussionIn the current research, it was initially hypothesized that investors in loss-making companies would perceive losses as more stable during periods characterized by reduced emotional intensity and less stable during emotionally charged periods. These results underscore the complexity of investor behavior and the challenges in accurately predicting how emotions influence investment decisions and expectations. The findings imply that other factors or variables not considered in the current research may play a more substantial role in shaping investors' expectations of future earnings in both loss-making and profitable companies.ConclusionThe research outcomes indicate that in both loss-making and profitable companies, investors' sentiments do not wield a statistically significant influence on their expectations of future earnings. This suggests that investors' expectations regarding future earnings may not be accurately formed. Even in the case of profitable companies, investors' emotions do not appear to significantly impact their profit expectations. These results may be attributed to investors' potentially inadequate understanding of future earnings, which could give rise to emotional behaviors. Addressing this issue calls for intervention by capital market analysts and relevant institutions, with a focus on enhancing investor awareness. Initiatives should be developed to raise investors' knowledge levels, thereby contributing to the normalization of the broader market and the fundamentals of listed companies.It's worth noting that these findings appear to contradict those of Riedl (2021). In the Iranian economic context, these results apply similarly to both loss-making and profitable companies, indicating that emotions may not be a significant factor influencing profit expectations on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Moreover, these findings align partially with the results of BashiriManesh and Oradi (2018).
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