غلامرضا هاشم زاده خوراسگانی

Purpose: With the increase of problems and the complexity of organizations, the need to provide better solutions and use more powerful tools of strategic planning is evident because managers with strategic thinking and a better understanding of the strategic plan will perform more effectively. It can be said that strategic thinking is considered as a supplement to strategic planning, a suitable approach to "leadership" of the organization and can help in systematically dealing with problems, understanding opportunities, optimal allocation of scarce resources and achieving the desired results. In view of this importance, the current research aims to design a strategic thinking competence assessment model with the approach of developing organizational flexibility in National Gas Company of Iran.Method: This research is applied in terms of purpose and was done with qualitative approach based on grounded theory method. Sampling of the research was done using snowball method (chain reference). For this purpose, qualitative data was collected, which led to the identification of many aspects of the phenomenon and the possibility of developing a conceptual research model. The data collection method is library studies, perusal of high-level documents, and in-depth and open interviews. The statistical population of this research consisted of specialists and experts in the field of management and strategic thinking, of whom 12 people were investigated. In the process of conducting this research, the interviews continued until theoretical saturation was observed.Findings: The findings showed that six main categories are effective on the evaluation of strategic thinking with an organizational flexibility approach, which are: foresight, strategic determination, systemic attitude, innovation and creativity. The results show that the validity of the model is confirmed and the six obvious variables (six dimensions) explain the latent variables of strategic thinking competency assessment. According to the direction of all the relations between the manifest variables and the latent ones, , all the relations are aligned and direct.Conclusion: According to the amount of standardized factor loadings, the dimension "Foresight (AN)", with a factor loading of 0.88, is the most reliable indicator belonging to evaluation measurement.

< p>The present study models the risk of investment in the petrochemical industry considering the impacts of exchange rate (US dollar to Iran''''s Rial) movements using the time series data from November 2008 to March 2019 and ARFIMA-FIGARCH framework. The empirical results prove the existence of the Fractal Market Hypothesis, FMH, and the Long Memory property in both the risk and return of the petrochemical stock index. These findings can be culminated in reaching a reliable and significant model to evaluate the investment risk in the petrochemical industry. In line with this, to analyze the idea whether considering the exchange rate movements matter for assessing the risk management in the petrochemical industry, the effects of exchange rate movements as a crucial source of systematic risk in Iran has been taken into consideration in the process of modelling the risk of investment in that industry. Our results demonstrate that the exchange rate movements have had a direct and significant effect on the investment risk of that industry so that if, on average, one percent change occurs in the exchange rate, the investment risk in this industry changes by 57% in the same direction.

Nowadays, information-making is growing rapidly due to the developments in technology; thus, it is critical to maintain information and establish integrated systems for storage and office automation in any organization; thereby, the establishment of datacenters has become a requirement for them. Despite offering models related to some parts of the data centers, there are still ambiguities in identifying the influential and key variables. This study aimed at offering a dynamic model for the parts related to the attractiveness of data center services by using Vensim software. Five reinforcing loops and seven balancing loops were extracted through studying the review of literature; then, the relevant stock and flow variables have been defined. Afterwards, the model is presented in the form of cause and effect model and the stock-flow model. Also, various scenarios have been studied, including increasing the training capacity and attractiveness, imposing an overload on the network and switch failure, upgrading the bandwidth carrying capacity, reducing the maximum maintenance. According to the results and sensitivity analysis done in this research, it can be said that the attractiveness of services, the acquired skills, and the maximum feasible maintenance along with the bandwidth carrying capacity, storage, and processing power of the data centers is so vital in determining the performance level of data centers and the attractiveness of services.

The present study models the risk of investment in the petrochemical industry considering the impacts of exchange rate (US dollar to Iran's Rial) movements using the time series data from November 2008 to March 2019 and ARFIMA-FIGARCH framework. The empirical results prove the existence of the Fractal Market Hypothesis, FMH, and the Long Memory property in both the risk and return of the petrochemical stock index. These findings can be culminated in reaching a reliable and significant model to evaluate the investment risk in the petrochemical industry. In line with this, to analyze the idea whether considering the exchange rate movements matter for assessing the risk management in the petrochemical industry, the effects of exchange rate movements as a crucial source of systematic risk in Iran has been taken into consideration in the process of modelling the risk of investment in that industry. Our results demonstrate that the exchange rate movements have had a direct and significant effect on the investment risk of that industry so that if, on average, one percent change occurs in the exchange rate, the investment risk in this industry changes by 57% in the same direction.