تحلیل راهبرد مهار آمریکا در قبال ج.ا.ایران با تأکید بر دوره بایدن (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
اجرای راهبرد مهار از سوی حکومت های آمریکا در برابر ج.ا.ایران تاکنون، پرسش های زیادی را برانگیخته است. این مقاله با روش پژوهش توصیفی- تبیینی تلاش دارد در چارچوب رویکرد بازها و واقع گرایان راهبرد مهار آمریکا را در حکومت های مختلف آمریکا به طور خلاصه بررسی کند و سرانجام به این دو پرسش زیر پاسخ دهد: 1. رویکرد بایدن در برابر ایران چیست؟ 2.آیا با احیای برجام در دوره او نیز عناصر مهار آمریکا تداوم پیدا می کند یا خیر؟ در فرضیه پژوهشی استدلال می شود که از دید دولت بایدن رویکرد گفت وگو و مذاکره بهترین شیوه برخورد با ایران برای احیای برجام است، زیرا افزایش تنش و دشمنی به اتحاد رقبای آمریکا علیه آن به ویژه در خاورمیانه منجر خواهد شد. اگرچه هدف دولت بایدن از احیای برجام مهار برنامه هسته ای ایران، جلوگیری از برهم خوردن توازن منطقه ای و بین المللی به زیان خود و هم پیمانانش است، ولی واشنگتن افزایش همکاری راهبردی نزدیک ملت ایران، چین و روسیه را نیز تهدیدی برای آمریکا به شمار می آورد. یافته های پژوهش حاکی از آن است که حتی در صورت احیای برجام، هیچ نشانه ای وجود ندارد که ایران اقدام به تغییر در رفتار سیاست خارجی منطقه ای و توسعه توانایی موشکی اش کند؛ بنابراین راهبرد مهار ایران از سوی آمریکا ادامه خواهد داشت.Analysis of the US containment strategy against the Islamic Republic of Iran: with emphasis on the Biden era
Introduction The implementation of a containment strategy by the US government against the Islamic Republic of Iran has raised many questions. This paper, using an explanatory research method, aims to briefly examine America's containment strategy under different administrations within the framework of hawks and realist theory. Ultimately, the paper seeks to answer the question: What is Biden's approach towards Iran, and will elements of American containment persist with the revival of the JCPOA during his term? The assumption of this article is that the Biden government views dialogue and negotiation as the best approach to revive the JCPOA.MethodologyThe research method employed in this study is comparative, and data collection is done through library and documentary research. By exploring the history of US containment strategy against Iran, this research has identified reasons for the continuation of containment efforts during the Biden administration.FindingsThe findings of this study are discussed under the following themes:The situation of tension in the Middle East:Biden believes that heightened tension and hostility in the Middle East may lead America's rivals to unite against it.Biden's approach towards the JCPOA:The Biden administration aims to revive the JCPOA to constrain Iran's nuclear program and maintain regional and international balance in favor of itself and its allies.Iran's relations with eastern powers:Biden views China's Belt and Road plan and Iran's strategic cooperation with China and Russia as a threat to America.Iran's position on missiles and regional influence:Even if the JCPOA is revived, there is no indication that Iran will concede to America in the regional and missile development fields. Therefore, it is likely that containment efforts against Iran will continue under the Biden administration.Biden's approach in containing Iran:Biden's goal is to establish a multinational effort for containing Iran, which includes reducing Iran's political influence and weakening its economy.AnalysisTheories of hawks, realists, and doves, about Iran are very different. It seems that the views of realists can better explain the continuation of the containment strategy in the Biden period. Realists, for example, have said that what Iran is doing is a better indicator of Iran's future behavior than what Iran is saying. Biden also believes that he should react to Iran's behavior in various fields. While hawks view the Iranian government as uncontrollable due to religious obligations, realists see Iran as weighing costs and benefits in decision-making, rather than acting irrationally. But realists believe that this perception is not consistent with the performance of the Iranian government. In addition to taking into account religious values, Iran also considers the facts and has shown restraint when the risks are high and has retreated in the event of a severe threat. Tehran's decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than an armed attack. And the idea of Iran as an irrational actor is wrong. Iranian decision-makers are generally reluctant to act quickly.ConclusionsThe results showed that the US containment strategy in the Biden era continues within the framework of the realist stick and carrot policy. In all areas, the United States intends to increase Iran's costs based on the stick and carrot policy. The main pillars of the stick policy are threats and sanctions. But the US strategy of containment against Iran has another part, namely carrots, and based on that, it calls for building trust and resolving problems with Iran through negotiations. The policy of maximum pressure to contain Iran began during the Obama administration, and Trump and Biden are the sole agents of this strategy. Sanctions remain a key tool in America's containment strategy against Iran, with the JCPOA serving as part of a broader effort to contain Iran beyond nuclear concerns.
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