تبیین اجتماعی تروریسم در غرب آسیا؛ تاثیر اعتماد بر تروریسم در سال های 2007 تا 2020 (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
برای تبیین تروریسم در غرب آسیا به ویژه پس از حادثه یازدهم سپتامبر 2001 تلاش های بسیاری صورت گرفته، اما حاصل این تلاش ها عمدتاً منجر به تبیین های اقتصادی، سیاسی یا روان شناختی شده و تبیین اجتماعی تروریسم، به ویژه با تمرکز بر مولفه اعتماد، مورد توجه چندانی نبوده است. بر این اساس، در مقاله حاضر این پرسش مورد توجه قرار گرفته که اعتماد چه تأثیری بر تروریسم در غرب آسیا داشته است؟ در پاسخ به پرسش مذکور فرض بر این است که میان اعتماد به عنوان یک متغیر اجتماعی و تروریسم در غرب آسیا رابطه معناداری وجود دارد. برای آزمون این فرضیه میزان همبستگی میان داده های اعتماد به عنوان متغیر مستقل و تروریسم به عنوان متغیر وابسته با استفاده از نرم افزار SPSS نسخه 22 تحلیل شده است. تحلیل داده ها با استفاده از ضریب همبستگی پیرسون و رگرسیون خطی چندمتغیره از نوع گام به گام حاکی از آن است که اعتماد بین المللی به ترتیب 36 و 82درصد از تغییرات تعداد گروه های تروریستی و تعداد حملات آنها را تبیین می کند، در حالی که اعتماد نهادی تقریباً 33درصد از تغییرات شدت خشونت اعمالی توسط گروه های تروریستی را توضیح می دهد. با توجه به مقادیر بتا، می توان گفت اعتماد بین المللی بر تعداد گروه های تروریستی و تعداد حملات آنها تأثیر مثبت و اعتماد نهادی بر شدت خشونت گروه های تروریستی تأثیر منفی داشته است.Trust and Terrorism: A Sociological Study of West Asia (2007-2020)
IntroductionThe rise of West Asia as a hub for various terrorist groups, many of which are linked to Islam and operate on a global scale, has led to a growing connection between global terrorism and Islam. According to data from the “National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START),” between 2012 and 2017, 17 terrorist groups conducted attacks in Europe, compared to 148 in the West Asia and North Africa. A key concern, beyond the number of active terrorist groups, is the severity of their violence. For instance, during this period, ISIS alone was responsible for 5,646 terrorist attacks, resulting in 39,744 deaths and 856 injuries. In 2012, Europe saw 13 attacks, while Iraq recorded 319. By 2017, Europe experienced 40 attacks (14 in Russia), whereas Iraq faced 1,160 attacks.In explaining the factors behind the rise of terrorist groups and the intensity of their violence, particularly in West Asia, experts and analysts have pointed to various causes such as political instability, economic conditions, cultural characteristics, and psychological disorders. While each of these factors can shed light on aspects of the issue, it is essential to recognize that “terrorism is primarily linked to social factors.” Unlike criminal activities driven by selfish motives, terrorists often believe their actions serve a collective, altruistic goal, highlighting a deeply social dimension. Therefore, social factors, especially community-level trust, play a crucial role in understanding the formation of terrorism and the behavior of terrorists. MethodologyThe paper adopts a quantitative approach, is periodical in nature, and relies on secondary data sources such as The Legatum Prosperity Index, the Global Terrorism Database, and START. Trust and terrorism are examined as the independent and dependent variables, respectively. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS version 22. The study focuses on West Asian countries, with sampling performed using the hierarchical clustering method known as “Ward.” Discussion and ResultsQatar ranks highest in institutional trust, with an impressive average score of 98, while Yemen lags far behind with a score of just 11, indicating the weakest institutional trust. In terms of generalized interpersonal trust, Yemen surprisingly leads with a score of 81, whereas Iraq records the lowest score at 31. On the international trust front, Qatar again performs well with an average score of 60, contrasting sharply with Iraq, which has the lowest score of 20.Throughout the studied period, Iraq experienced a total of 6,205 terrorist attacks, averaging 443 attacks per year. Syria had the highest number of terrorist groups, with a total of 74 operating in the country, resulting in an average of over five groups conducting terrorist operations annually. Iraq also recorded the highest intensity of violence, with approximately 53,000 casualties, meaning that around 4,000 people were killed or wounded in the country each year.Out of the nine possible correlations between the three levels of trust and various components of terrorism, five showed significant relationships. Specifically, there was a significant correlation between interpersonal trust and the number of attacks; institutional trust was significantly related to both the intensity of violence and the number of attacks; and international trust had a significant connection with both the number of terrorist groups and their attacks. ConclusionIn general, this research aligns with the findings of other scholars in showing that in societies with high levels of interpersonal trust, the formation of terrorist groups is more likely, while an increase in institutional trust correlates with a decrease in violence. However, a unique finding of this study is that a rise in international trust has led to an increase in both the number of terrorist groups and their attacks in West Asia. This divergence from other research may be attributed to the deep roots of Islamic culture in the region and the anti-social tendencies of authoritarian rulers in West Asian countries, who, while engaging with globalization, lean toward liberalism. Therefore, it can be concluded that the lack of mature institutional structures in the region prompts citizens to respond by forming or joining terrorist groups, escalating both the number of attacks and the intensity of violence.
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