ایران و بالکانی ها در فضای پسامنازعه (2023-2008) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
ایران پس از انقلاب اسلامی و به ویژه از دهه 1990 همواره تلاش کرده است پیوندهای فرهنگی، سیاسی، نظامی و اقتصادی برای حضور و کسب نفوذ در بالکان استفاده کند، اما با استقلال کوزوو و فروکش کردن نسبی بحران 200 ساله، ماهیت فضای سیاسی در بالکان دگرگون شده است. تغییر در محیط سیاسی منطقه و ایجاد فضای کنشگری جدید باعث تغییر در محیط سیاسی داخلی بازیگران منطقه ای و همچنین تغییر در ترکیب و اولویت های بازیگران فرامنطقه ای حاضر در آن شده است. در این مقاله قصد داریم به این پرسش پاسخ دهیم که سیاست خارجی ایران در طول سال های 2008 تا 2023 با چه فرصت ها و تهدید هایی در فضای کنشگری جدید در بالکان مواجه بوده است؟ یافته ها نشان می دهند که ایران با توجه به گسترش ناتو و اتحادیه اروپا در میان بالکانی ها در فضای پسامنازعه نتوانسته است از ابزارهای نظامی و اقتصادی خویش برای افزایش نفوذ خود استفاده کند. ازاین رو با اتکا بر پیوندهای فرهنگی کوشیده است دیپلماسی فرهنگی خاصی را با راهبردهای استفاده از حضور مسلمانان در منطقه، افزایش نفوذ زبان فارسی و در مقطعی بهره گیری از سنت سلطه ستیزیِ چپ سیاسی در بالکان به اجرا بگذارد. این حضور و نفوذ نیز به نوبه خود مسبب شکل گیریِ تهدیدهای نوینی در بالکان علیه ایران شده است که از مهمترین آنها می توان به گسترش ناتو، استقرار سپر دفاع موشکی آمریکا، رشد سلفی گرایی و استقرار مجاهدین خلق در این منطقه اشاره کرد. در اینجا با رویکرد برنامه ریزی استراتژیک، از مدل SWOT برای شناسایی و تحلیل این فرصت ها و چالش ها استفاده شده است.Iran and the Balkans in the Post-Conflict Era (2008-2023)
IntroductionIn international politics, states are continually working to expand their influence in other countries and regions. The need to maintain a balance of power between rival or adversarial states has been a fundamental aspect of the nation-state system. Consequently, states are persistently seeking to identify and engage balancing forces in their surroundings to counter threats posed by alliances and coalitions of opposing powers.However, when a state cannot find balancing forces within its immediate region, it may seek to counterbalance threats by extending its influence beyond its territorial neighborhood. This strategy allows the state to shift the dynamics of power and reduce pressure from adversaries. The Islamic Republic of Iran's growing focus on non-neighboring countries and regions outside the Middle East reflects this approach. Over the past four decades, regional rivals and adversaries have exerted substantial pressure on Iran, leading to significant developments such as the eight-year Iran-Iraq war and extensive international sanctions. In response, Iran's foreign policy has actively sought allies beyond its region, from Central Asia and North Africa to the Arabian Peninsula, South America, and, more recently, West Africa. In this context, Southeast Europe, particularly the Balkans, has also emerged as a key area of focus.Since the Islamic Revolution, particularly from the 1990s onward, Iran has actively sought to leverage cultural, political, military, and economic ties to establish its presence and influence in the Balkans. However, Kosovo's independence and the relative resolution of the longstanding 200-year crisis have transformed the political landscape in the region. These changes have created a new dynamic environment, altering the domestic political conditions of regional actors and reshaping the priorities and presence of trans-regional actors. This paper seeks to address the question, “What opportunities and challenges did Iran's foreign policy encounter in the Balkans between 2008 and 2023 within an evolving political context?”MethodologyIn this study, a strategic planning approach is employed using the SWOT model to identify and analyze the opportunities and challenges faced by Iran's foreign policy in the Balkans. The analysis begins by evaluating Iran's internal strengths and weaknesses in its interactions with other influential states in the region following the significant changes in 2008. Subsequently, the opportunities and threats emerging from this diplomatic landscape are outlined. Finally, the paper examines how Iran has leveraged international opportunities in the Balkans to mitigate its internal weaknesses and counter regional threats by capitalizing on its own capabilities. Discussion and ResultsThe findings reveal that Iran has struggled to use its military and economic tools to bolster its influence in the post-conflict Balkans, particularly given the expansion of NATO and the European Union in the region. As a result, Iran has shifted its focus to cultural diplomacy, using its ties with the Muslim population, promoting the Persian language, and at times, focusing on leftist anti-establishment sentiments to enhance economic exchanges with Balkan countries. However, this approach has also exposed Iran to new threats in the Balkans, including NATO's expansion, increased activities by Israel and Saudi Arabia to counter Iran's influence, the establishment of the U.S. missile defense shield, the spread of Salafism, and the presence of the Mujahedeen-e Khalq in the region.ConclusionResearch data indicate that Iran has attempted to leverage its military, economic, and cultural resources to enhance its influence in the post-conflict Balkans. However, in the military-security domain, factors such as NATO's eastward expansion and the perception of the Balkans as a traditional sphere of influence by Russia and Turkey have limited Iran's ability to get a foothold. Economically, the gradual integration of Balkan states into the European Union, coupled with competition from rivals like China, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, has created significant challenges for Iran. Moreover, international sanctions have critically undermined Iran's capacity to fully utilize its economic potential in the region.Culturally, Iran's focus on forging ideological connections, rather than promoting its cultural heritage, Persian language, and historical ties, has sparked concerns about the spread of its political Islam in the Balkans. This ideological approach has also been ineffective in countering the growth of Sunni Salafism among the region's Muslims. As a result, Iran's confrontational cultural strategy in the post-conflict Balkans, rather than fostering stronger political and economic relationships, has fueled Iranophobia. Ultimately, it should be said that a shift in Iran's cultural diplomacy and emphasizing its cultural assets and language, could open new political and economic opportunities in the Balkans.
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