درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

The two decades the urban growth has been caused in changing land cover in the urban areas, especially in agricultural lands locating in borders of cities. It is necessary for suitable urban planning to achieve suitable urban growth plans, the past evolution of the physical and spatial development of cities in order to predict the appropriate zones for future development in proportion to the ecological conditions of the region. The purpose of this research is to identify, describe and predict land use change for the year 2030 by using Land Cover Change Modeling (LCM). For this purpose, Landsat satellite images Landsat 1995 and 2016 have been used to illustrate user changes and classifying the land cover which uses logistic regression model to study the factors affecting land cover variations and then modeling the transmission potential of the artificial neural network multilayer perceptron model (MLP) with five variables. Finally, the allocation of users to each other with the Markov chain has been assess. The results in study indicate that the most changes are related to the lands built with 5600 hectares (more than the conversion of agricultural land into built). The land cover predict map also showed that the most development will be in the north, northeast, and northwest in 2030.

Purpose- The main purpose of this research is to identify and analyze the performance of the two dimensions of tourism namely supply and demand to achieve agricultural tourism development in the rural areas of Zarivar Wetland in Marivan County as a capable destination in the field of agricultural tourism.Design/methodology/approach- This qualitative research has delved into documentary sources to collect data in the theoretical phase, and conducted purposeful interviews with the Delphi group (decision-making Delphi) in the field phase to identify effective obstacles. The Delphi group included 26 individuals of development authorities, tourism activists, local tourism entrepreneurs and informants as well as experts of rural development and tourism in the region. It was conducted applying grounded theory technique.Findings- The findings showed that the effective factors on the development of agricultural tourism in the region are in the form of two levels related to the development of mass tourism and specialized in the field of agricultural tourism. In the public sector related to the development of mass tourism, weakness in tourism infrastructures and services, weakness in marketing, weakness in training, protecting and diversifying the attractions, weakness in planning, monitoring and performance of governmental institutions, inappropriate business space and weakness in the needs and performance of tourists including 68 variables were identified as the main factors. In the specialized field and related to the development of agricultural tourism, , funding and financial flow, specialized advertising and highlighting, empiricism and creativity orientation, planning and management and traditional agriculture in the form of 34 variables were identified as the most important and effective obstacles of its development and expansion.Practical solutions- Changing the view of regional development and tourism managers to a systemic vision in tourism management and then changing the procedure in emphasizing the development of mass tourism in Zarivar Wetland and emphasizing the expansion of tourism with agricultural as well as paying attention to the villages on the edge of the wetland to present in the tourism market of the region are vitally important.Original/value- In today's era, according to the changes in the tourism market in attracting tourists with special motivations and taking the distance of the tourism market from mass tourism, the development of agricultural tourism can play as an important advantage in the field of rural tourism of Zarivar wetland and attract more tourists and increase their longevity.