دیپلماسی پنهان میان عربستان سعودی و رژیم صهیونیستی: ریشه ها، روندها و شکست (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
کوشش عربستان سعودی و رژیم صهیونیستی برای برقراری روابط رسمی سیاسی و دیپلماتیک به رغم همه امیدواری ها با بن بست مواجه شد. این دو که برای یک دهه از دیپلماسی پنهان برای رقم زدن این تحول بهره جسته بودند، نتوانستند از ظرفیت های موجود در دیپلماسی پنهان برای حصول به موفقیت و برقراری روابط رسمی استفاده کنند. چرایی این عدم موفقیت، سوال اصلی مقاله حاضر است. فرضیه اصلی مقاله این است که این مسئله گرچه تا حدی ریشه در وقوع عمیات طوفان الاقصی در اکتبر 2023 دارد، اما به میزان بیشتری علل این عدم موفقیت، مربوط به روند خاص دیپلماسی پنهان میان این دو است. دیپلماسی پنهان میان عربستان و رژیم صهیونیستی، نه تنها نتوانست کارکرد منتهی به نتیجه برای دو طرف به بار آورد، بلکه به سبب نبود یک نقشه راه مشخص، تک بُعدی بودن، سبک خاص دیپلماسی رژیم صهیونیستی که مبتنی بر ضددیپلماسی است، دیپلماسی فریب کارانه سعودی و در نهایت سردرگمی ایالات متحده در سیاست خارجی خود، از ابتدا محکوم به شکست بود. هدف مقاله حاضر تبیین چرایی به نتیجه نرسیدن ابزار دیپلماسی پنهان در تحقق هدف برقراری روابط رسمی میان رژیم صهیونیستی و اسرائیل با کاربست روش تحلیل تاریخی بر مبنای کیفیت گذشته دیپلماسی پنهان این دو است.Secret Diplomacy Between Saudi Arabia and Israel: Origins, Developments, and Setbacks
Introduction Despite high expectations, the attempts of Saudi Arabia and Israel to forge political and diplomatic ties reached an impasse. The two countries, which had employed secret diplomacy for a decade to effect this change, were unable to leverage the potential inherent in such diplomacy to succeed and formalize relations. This paper primarily investigates the causes of this failure. The central hypothesis posits that while this issue is partly linked to the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in October 2023, the principal reason pertains to the unique process of “secret diplomacy”.The secret diplomatic efforts between Riyadh and Tel Aviv not only fell short of achieving the outcomes both parties sought, but were also destined to fail from the outset due to the absence of a clear strategy, their one-sided approach, Israel’s anti-diplomacy style, Saudi Arabia's deceptive diplomacy, and finally, the inconsistency in the United States' foreign policy. This paper aims to elucidate the reasons for this failure by employing a historical analysis method, focusing on the nature of the past secret diplomacy between the two countries. Methodology The methodology of this paper is based on historical analysis, meaning that we will scrutinize the current and future state of secret diplomacy between Saudi Arabia and Israel, drawing on the historical trajectory of each actor’s secret diplomacy. Given that their secret diplomatic interactions are ongoing, the most critical data and rationale for assessment lie in their past behavior in previous instances of secret diplomacy. Result and Discussion Based on the results of this study, the factors shaping secret diplomacy between Israel and Saudi Arabia are the following:Countering Iran’s influence in the Middle EastThe preparedness of the United States to withdraw from the Middle East or diminish its military footprint in the regionThe inability of the United States to effectively counter Iran on nuclear and regional mattersThe interest of the United States in a significant compromise in the Middle East due to security considerations and its internal political issuesThe escalating aspirations of TurkeyThe mutual economic interests of both Israel and Saudi ArabiaThe factors contributing to the unsuccessful secret diplomacy between Riyadh and Tel Aviv, encompassing Saudi Arabia’s domestic issues, its bilateral ties with Israel, and its relations with other countries, are outlined as follows:Excessive prolongation of negotiations (bilateral relations with Israel)Internal political shifts within the United States (third parties)Saudi Arabia’s substantial expectations from the United States in military, nuclear, and security aspects (third parties)The Israeli anti-diplomatic stance and lack of flexibility on the issue of Palestine (bilateral relations with Israel)The widespread impact of the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on the Arab world and Saudi society (Saudi domestic issues)Saudi Arabia’s observation of Israel’s vulnerability and subsequent adjustments (third parties)The agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran with the mediation of China and stopping the war in Yemen (third parties)The enhancement of relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, along with Saudi Arabia’s reconciliation with Qatar (third parties)The absence of a roadmap for secret diplomacy (bilateral relations with Israel)Recognition of the high and negative costs associated with establishing formal relations with Israel in the aftermath of the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood (Saudi domestic issues).In summary, it can be said that Saudi Arabia continues to pursue the establishment of formal political ties with Israel. However, this necessitates a more flexible stance from Tel Aviv and a departure from its anti-diplomatic approach, and political shifts within the United States. Saudi Arabia is willing to make concessions, provided that the U.S. government aligns with Riyadh’s interests and ensures the desired demands are met.
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