درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

Stock return predictability has been extensively considered as a stylized reality. Theories indicate that returns should change along the time, and various studies have presented evidence on this point. On the other hand, there is an optimal portfolio in each regime, and one cannot claim that a specific portfolio can minimize risk and returns in each regime. On the other hand, the financial conditions index (FCI) is an important index to specify monetary policy conditions. Regarding the importance of the issue, this research aims to present a comprehensive index, including all monetary transmission mechanisms. In this regard, it is attempted to improve the efficiency of stock return predictability in Iran's economy by incorporating an FCI and identifying relationships between FCI and stock returns using the TVP-DMA model, which can resolve shortcomings of traditional models. The study is applied research in terms of purpose. Seasonal data over the period of April 1991 to July 2019 is used. The results based on TPV, DMS, and DMA models indicate that liquidity growth rate, economic growth rate, unemployment rate, exchange rate, financial condition index, oil revenues, misery index, and budget deficit, has significantly affected factors of stock returns in 30, 50, 11, 49, 66, 54, 7, and 84 periods of 104 periods, respectively. Accordingly, budget deficit, financial condition index, oil revenues, and economic growth are the most effective factors of stock returns predictability in Iran. Further, the incorporation of flexibility in coefficients of the financial development index leads to higher forecast accuracy.

In this historical analysis of US foreign policy toward Iran during the presidency of George W. Bush, the author aims to decipher the overarching policy approach guiding United States' Iran policy in the context of the main issues arising during this time period. George W. Bush started his presidency with the legacy of past presidents, viewing Iran as a threat to US interests and drawing from the policy tool box that had been developed during the previous four administrations. In this paper, the implementation of these different policy approaches will be discussed in the context of the events of September 11, the Afghanistan and the Iraq wars, and the nuclear issue. Engagement, containment, and covert and overt means of destabilizing the Islamic Republic of Iran will be discussed. The roots of many of the current issues in U.S. -Iran relations as well as the tactics used to tackle them could be traced to the period under study. In the years after the presidency of George W. Bush and despite the different tactics used, this mentality has led presidents as diverse as Obama and Trump to suffer from the same strategic mistake: an instrumental approach to Iran. The failure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to withstand the transfer of power in the United States shows how the American practice of the weaponization of all available means to deal with Iran, including diplomacy and economic tools, is jeopardizing any real hope for a different direction in US-Iran relations.