درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

Pension funds are major concerns and future threats to the economy of de-veloping countries. In general, pension funds are among the most sensitive and complicated modern financial institutions in today’s world, as well as an important component of the national economy to achieve the goals of the social security system. The present study was only focused on the dimensions and prioritization of the influential factors in evaluating the impact of pension funds. This could be an important step toward accurate policymaking in this regard within a shorter period and with decreased costs by recognizing the important factors. This was an applied research in terms of the objectives and involved a mixed method in terms of the design. Data were collected in two consecutive stages using the descriptive survey method. The first stage involved a qualitative assessment using the content analysis method, and the second stage was carried out using a decision-making mathematical model known as the fuzzy DEMATEL method. The two stages facilitated the identification of the influ-ence and interaction of the factors and prioritized the identified indexes. The fuzzy DEMATEL technique is a simple and efficient model applied to rec-ognize and rank the most important factors. The factors were calculated based on the opinions of experts using the fuzzy DEMATEL method. Ac-cording to the results, the three most important factors in this regard were upstream rules and regulations, inflation, and investment strategies.

One of the most important aspects of investment is determining the “optimal investment portfolio”. To date, scientific research has been conducted to determine the optimal portfolio with “artificial intelligence” and “Fuzzy logic”. However, we determine the optimal portfolio based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. On the other hand, several factors affect returns, which is one of the most important issues in investment decision-makings, and various models have been developed to analyze the return of “capital” and “other assets”. In this regard, some of the most important models include linear and non-linear models, artificial neural network models, Fama–French model, Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, and optimal stable model. All of these models are indicative of the use of quantitative methods and models in the investment industry. One of the causes of using these models is developing the financial economy. In fact, the development of financial economy has more increased with the concept of “portfolio optimization”. In fact, the portfolio optimization and diversification concept is the basis of developing and expanding classical finance and financial decision-making. Financial markets, especially the capital market, can have a great deal of relevance to other sectors of the economy. In the present study, we design and calibrate a new Keynesian DSGE model in relation to the optimal investment portfolio and effectiveness of shocks (e.g., productivity and foreign exchange earnings fluctuation) on macroeconomics variables.