اثر بحران مالی 2008 بر تجارت دوجانبه ی خدمات بین المللی گردشگری ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
بحران مالی، جزء موثرترین عارضه های اقتصادی است که در یک منطقه ی اقتصادی رخ می دهد و نهایتاً به کشورهای دیگر سرایت می کند و شاخص های اقتصادی را تحت تأثیر قرار می دهد. یکی از مهم ترین شاخص های اقتصادی، تجارت بین الملل است. با توجه به آمارهای ارائه شده از سازمان های مختلف، بحران مالی تأثیر کمتری بر تجارت خدمات نسبت به تجارت کالا داشته است؛ از این رو سیاست گذاری صحیح بر این بخش می تواند در زمان بحران مالی کاهش کمتری را در حجم کل تجارت بین الملل ایجاد کند؛ لذا در این مطالعه به بررسی اختصاصی اثر بحران مالی بر تجارت بین الملل بخش خدمات طی سال های 2003-2010 پرداخته شده است و با توجه به اینکه گردشگردی یکی از مهم ترین زیربخش های خدمات است، یک بررسی موردی در این زمینه نیز با استفاده از الگوی جاذبه و با به کارگیری نرم افزار Stata11 صورت گرفته است. نتایج نشان می دهد تغییرات وضعیت مالی، اثر مستقیم بر حجم تجارت کل خدمات و تجارت خدمات گردشگری دارد و تغییرات این شاخص بر تجارت خدمات گردشگری نسبت به تجارت کل خدمات اثر کمتری دارد. همچنین سایر عوامل اثرگذار بر تجارت دوجانبه ی خدمات شامل درآمد سرانه، نرخ ارز و مسافت است.The Effects of 2008 Financial Crisis on Iran’s Bilateral Trade in International Tourism Services
Abstract: Financial crisis is one of the most effective economic problems that may occurring an economic region and eventually spread to other regions through which economic indicators can be affected seriously. According to the literature, however, financial crisis has had less impact on trading services than feasible goods. The current study explores the effects of recent global financial crisis on Iran’s trade in services during the period 2003-2010, given that tourism has a dominant role in the country’s relations with the major trading partners including Canada, Italy, Germany, Russia, Japan, Great Britain and France. Using bilateral cross-section export data, a specified gravity model has been estimated by Stata(11) to show indeed the crisis effect on such trade relations. The Empirical results obtained indicate that 2008 financial crisis has affected significantly bilateral tourist flows between Iran and its major country partners while the effect has been less than that of total trade in services. Other variables such as income per capital, exchange rate and distance have had significant but different effects on Iran’s international tourist earnings. Introduction Services trade growth and high value-added in this sector in recent years has encouraged developed and developing countries to promote non-commodity trade. In International trade literature, it has been shown that commodity trading is affected by financial flows so that the different effects on the country’s current account are created. High proportion of trade in services is related to the tourism industry. Entrance of tourism in each country is considered to be as the country's services exports, yet its citizen starveling abroad is considered to be as imports of services. A bilateral trade relationship between two countries has been formed with foreign exchange receipts and payments mechanisms, affecting current account of countries. In this study we investigate the relationship between Iran’s trade in tourism and the recent global financial crisis, using a panel trade gravity model, The Impact of financial crisis on total trade in services has also been considered. Tow econometric gravity model shave been estimated separately and the result have been analyzed theoretically and empirically. Finally, the study has concluded some remarks. Materials and Methods Gravity models are one of the most important tools that provide estimation of bilateral trade flows in a particular period and simultaneously provide a view of exporting and importing countries. Accordingly, an augmented gravity model has been specified through which estimated results allow us to discuss the recent global financial crisis effect on Iran’s international tourism. We select countries which have large trade relationship with Iran in trade, and particularly in services, like Canada, Italy, Germany, Russia, Japan, Great Britain and France during2003-2010. Discussion and Results: The empirical results show all variables in the model are statistically signify cant at 5%level of significance. Partner countries’ income per capita coefficient is positive which indicates adirectrelati on ship between income and bilateral trade in services; it can be expressed that as1percentage increase in per capita income in Iran would cause increasing bilateral trade volume to1.67percent. And1 percent increase in per capita income of Iran’s partner (country j) would cause an increase in Iran’s bilateral trade between two country sup to1.35percent. Changes in exchange rates, will affect bilateral trade in tourism negatively. If economies get diverged in levels of development and its macroeconomic situation, costs of monetary integration will be high; because it needs nominal convergence preconditions for initial convergence on interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, government debt and deficit. Divergence between the studied countries has led to changes in exchange rates have a negative impact on bilateral trade of the two countries. It can be stated that any change will further reduce the volume of trade. Given that2008 and 2009are the years of crisis; negative changes in financial crisis index shows that the economy is moving to improve from financial conditions. The results also show that the global financial crisis has affected earnings from tourism trade. According to the results, all variables are significant at the5% significance level. The crisis index changes have a positive sign that represents the positive effect of changes in financial conditions. Changes in the financial conditions index have a positive effect on the volume of bilateral trade in tourism. As the crisis has happened during 2008-2009and the financial crisis index change is negative; thus the conditions is going out of the crisis and improving financial conditions Thereby reducing the volume of business tourism can be done in two ways. In the first case, due to uncertainty and the hope of improving conditions, tourists postpone traveling, thus at time the number of international travel reduced and this reduces the volume of tourism services trade. Conclusion: The research findings show that the per capita income between trading partners, changes in exchange rates, changes in the financial crisis index and geographical distance have affected significantly the Iran’s volume of trade in services and trade in tourism services. Per capita income elasticity of tourism services is less than the elasticity for total services because the countries in this study were mostly the ones that tourism is not luxury good. The impact of the crisis on total services is more than tourism services because tourism services are exchange during international travel. Usually International trips are planned and immediate factor causes less impact. But total services, includes services such as financial services, which shall be instantaneous and factors such as changes in financial conditions and exchange rates, have more and positive impact on total service in comparison to the tourism services.
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