درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

There are many opportunities and threats in the decision-making environment for managers, and an organization must use research and information systems to change, monitor, and anticipate this environment. Futurism reflects how tomorrow reality gives birth to tomorrow's reality is. The purpose of this research; Analyzing the role of futures studies in the existing patterns of critical factors of multi-criteria decision-making techniques in operations research using the philosophical assumptions of the classical and critical paradigms and finally determining the appropriate strategy based on these components, to increase success and life expectancy. The present study intends to formulate exploratory scenarios of this knowledge by using the critical uncertainty approach. To develop credible scenarios of knowledge of decision techniques, the opinions of 15 experts in this field were collected using the fuzzy Delphi approach and through the critical uncertainty questionnaire. After extracting the most important uncertainties, plausible scenarios of decision-making techniques were determined with the help of experts. According to the results obtained from the opinion of experts from the critical uncertainty questionnaire, four research uncertainties were identified, identified and the scenario design criteria were used. Each of the four cases, which includes low attention to social issues versus high attention to social issues, low attention to ethical models versus high attention to ethical models, low attention to soft approaches versus high attention to soft approaches, Low attention to complex issues versus high attention to complex issues indicates a specific dual situation in the future. Each of these dual situations indicates uncertainty about the future of multi-criteria decision making. Based on these uncertainties, three scenarios were identified. These scenarios include Achilles heel, phoenix, and heel. Also, semi-structured interviews with the theme analysis approach were used, and the philosophy of past and future approaches in this field was reviewed and critiqued.

The present study is an applied developmental study and from the point of view of data collection is a qualitative one. The strategy applied in this study is the grounded theory as a systematic and qualitative approach toward creating a hypothesis. The main aim the present study follows is to design a model for the pathology of running public policies in Iran. The data was collected through face to face, profound 60 to 90 minute interviews with 20 of prominent policy makers, executives and professors asking questions on challenges of running public policies. Sampling was conducted theoretically. Initially, a set of basic concepts were recollected via coding process and categories were extracted from them. Later, in axial coding stage, the relationship between these categories was determined through coding paradigm. Then, in the selective coding stage, each part of the model was explained. The advantage of this study over other works of research conducted on the pathology of running public policies is presenting a comprehensive and practical model attempting to consider all parameters affecting an unsuccessful public policy. The present study tries to demonstrate a holistic view and identify the challenges in public policy environment, challenges of the policy in public environment, and challenges of running a public policy ending in the failure of a public policy in order to elaborate on the outcomes of a failed policy.