درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

Due to the importance of accurate tourism demand estimation, the evaluation of estimating approaches is still ongoing. To address this challenge, the current study aimed to present a novel estimation statistical approach for modifying ARIMA to compare with two most prominent soft computing approaches, ANN and SVM. ARIMAadj is the modified ARIMA seasonal adjustment that declares a potential replacement to conventional ARIMA. Current study investigated the accuracy of seasonal adjustment on conventional ARIMA and compared its accuracy with ANN and SVM in estimating tourist demand of Asian countries to South Korea. The results show that the modified ARIMA outperform the soft computing approaches for tourism demand estimation accuracy of five out of six source Asian countries. Therefore, it could be concluded although there is no optimal approach to estimate tourist arrivals with certainty, the findings of this study show that the seasonal adjustment in ARIMA would be a worthwhile model to estimate tourism demand of Asian countries.

Sports tourism is one of the types of tourism that has an increasing growth in the tourism industry. Its effects are evident in all dimensions and fields, and there is a need to explain the role of this type of tourism on promoting the culture and ethics of the host society. Therefore, the main goal of this research is to investigate the role of sports tourism on promoting the culture and ethics of the host society, which is done using a mixed method. In the first stage, semi-structured interviews were conducted using the qualitative method of the focus group of 15 experts who were selected by the purposive sampling method. In the second stage, 27 experts were identified using stratified sampling. Through the tool of the questionnaire, they expressed their opinions regarding the extracted components and indicators. According to the research findings, 32 key codes, 14 integrative codes and 4 overarching codes were obtained through coding by King and Harrocks method. In the quantitative stage, all the experts approved the extracted components and indicators. According to the results, sports tourism has a fundamental role in promoting the culture and ethics of the host society and this role is through components such as "developing and promoting positive and useful values in the host society; cultural and moral empowerment of tourists and the host society; promotion of participation and ethical cooperation; developing and promoting a culture of altruism and empathy" was approved. These cases can not only bring positive and extensive communication fields to the host society, but they are also able to be effective in creating social capital in the host society.

This research aims to identify the factors that influence the growth of cultural tourism in Iran and propose a corresponding model. Following the identification of these factors, a scenario is written to optimize their utilization. The research employs a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to achieve its objectives and finalize the factors. Semi-structured interviews are conducted with experts in the field. In the second phase, after the formal validity of the factors is confirmed, their fuzzy cognitive mapping and scenario are designed using the FCMapper and Pajek software programs. As the results show, the factor of “creating investment opportunities and attracting financial resources in the field of cultural tourism” is the most influential, while the factor of “providing diverse and creative services in Iran’s cultural tourism” is the most impressionable for the development of cultural tourism in Iran. In the task of scenario writing, it has been discovered that, by focusing on attracting financial resources, managers can enhance the infrastructure, create a context for interaction with other countries, identify new target markets, and offer creative services to Iranian cultural tourists through diverse tours. The findings can help stakeholders, managers, and policymakers in Iran’s tourism industry design and develop plans and strategies for the growth of Iran’s cultural tourism