مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران

By utilizing the new Keynesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper examines the effects of credit easing policy on macroeconomic variables with or emphasizing on production. For this purpose, a model has been design including 5 sectors of household, enterprises, banks, government and central bank. Considering the dominance of fiscal policy over monetary policy in the Iranian economy, the integrated constraint of the government and the central bank has been used. The model has been estimated using Bayesian method and quarterly time series data during 1991 to 2017. The results of Impulse Response Function show that implementation of this policy has increased consumption, investment, government spending and ultimately production, which indicates the effectiveness of this unconventional monetary policy to get the economy out of recession. Also, in response to the positive impulse of the central bank’s credit line to banks and the negative impulse of legal reserves, bank facilities increase, which is in line with theoretical expectations. The impact of the negative impulse of interbank market rate has also led to an increase in production credits. 

This paper investigates the responses of Iran’s macroeconomic variables to the oil embargo against Iran. The article applies a Bayesian time-varying parameter SVAR model along the quarterly data of oil export, real exchange rate, inflation, real GDP and money supply of Iran over the period of 1991:Q2-2020:Q2. Applying time varying parameters in this study helps us to consider the economic structural changes and transition mechanism in analyzing the response of macroeconomic variables to oil embargo. The oil embargo against Iran has been intensified since 2012. To consider the effect of the oil embargo on Iranian macro variables, the model has been estimated in two different periods of time, before and after 2012. The results indicate that the escalation of the oil embargo from 2012 has caused a stagflation period and ends in a decline in real GDP and national currency depreciation. In addition, it has intensified money supply and triggers existing inflation. These results have some policy implications to overcome difficulties raises when the economy faces sanction.

This article examines the effect of government size on the high, medium and low thresholds of the Gini coefficient in Iran. For this purpose, the auto regression model of soft fuzzy logistic transfer (FLSTAR) has been used for the period of 1997-2019. One of the reasons for using this model is flexibility in its application. The main focus of this paper is to calculate the Gini coefficient bands according to the size of government in the economy. Hence, we calculate the bands (high, middle and low) of the Gini coefficient. The study show that the threshold size of the government is equal 0.499. Findings of this research are applied in a real case which reveal that with increase of government share in economy the Gini coefficient increases as well. Therefore, the government should seriously pursue privatization policies.

The efficient use of electricity in the household sector to ensure maximum welfare of households and supply of electricity required by industry as an engine of economic growth is the important goal of countries. Therefore, reducing the inefficiency of energy consumption by households is of high importance. The present study uses statistical evidence of expenditure-income of Iranian households for the period 2010–2021 to estimate the share of energy inefficiency in the households’ energy consumption differences. The results of Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition show that the share of inefficiency in creating a gap in the share of household electricity costs has decreased from 87.2% in 2010 to 76.5% in 2021. The results of Machado-Mata decomposition show that in the upper quantiles of the share of electricity consumption, the share of the difference in the socio-economic characteristics of households is more than that of the lower quantiles and this share has increased in 2021 as compared to 2010. Therefore, the role of household consumption pattern is more than the rate of access to high-energy appliances, so providing a step-by-step pricing system with an exponential rate for electricity consumption is an effective policy to reduce inefficiency in electricity consumption. Furthermore, quantile regression estimation shows that household income and size have a negative effect, and ownership and size of housing and access to household appliances have a positive significant effect on the share of household electricity costs.

Since the housing sector has an intricate relationship with other sectors of the economy, fluctuations in the price can be costly. Also, rising prices are either rooted in the underlying conditions of the economy or simply caused by the bubble, leading to different policies. Therefore, house price bubble can be considered as an early warning system to prevent adverse economic consequences. The present paper applies the theory of rational expectation bubble in the Iranian housing market during the years 2006-2020 using the Blanchard and Watson model. The theory implies that negative returns on house prices are less likely to occur if the bubbles exist. The risk assessment is, however, estimated by linear logistic function. The existence of bubble in housing market is confirmed based on 30 provinces.

Income inequality has gained prominence by exacerbating the economic stability of both developed and developing countries over the past few decades. The intensity of this issue is non-trivial with economies witnessing failure in policies, indecorous economic governance, and the challenging economic ideologies. Impact of financial development on economic growth is an important channel in economic issues on which plenty of discussions and challenges have arisen. Financial development involves various dimensions of financial systems and markets. Islamic financial development (IFD) is one of these dimensions. This research investigates the impact of IFD on income inequality in 28 countries active in the IFD area, including 14 high-income and 14 middle-income and low-income countries, over 2013-2017 by considering the Kuznets curve hypothesis, financial curve hypothesis, and Kuznets financial hypothesis and through spatial econometrics technique. Results indicate that Islamic financial development (IFD) decreases income inequality. In addition, the findings of the study reveal that there is no clear-cut evidence to support the proposition of economic development along with financial growth, which would reduce the problem of income inequality. The results show that the GDP per capita, Inflation and Trade Openness increase the income inequality. In contrast, General government final consumption expenditure, urban population and age dependency ratio, help countries reduce income inequality.

Based on the theoretical literature, there are different and sometimes conflicting approaches about the effects of the shadow economy on per capita income. Considering the importance of this issue for economic policy, this study examines the effects of the shadow economy on per capita income for the period of 2005- 2017 using a panel generalized two stage estimator (PG2SLS) in two groups of developing and developed countries. Based on the results obtained in both groups, the size of the shadow economy has a negative effect on the per capita income. Also, the effects of the shadow economy on per capita income in developed countries are much higher than in developing countries, which is somewhat countrary to the theoretical framework. Stimating the model with the assumption of endogeneity of the shadow economy, for developing countries these effects have become negative and significant, but for developed countries these effects do not have the necessary significance.