سید حسین میرجلیلی

Industrial investment in Iran, especially in the wake of sanctions’ intensification in the 2010s, decreased significantly. The government implemented fiscal policy which has been associated with uncertainty. In this paper, using a dynamic panel model and generalized method of moments, we examined the effect of fiscal policy uncertainty on investment in 24 industrial groups in Iran over the period 2002-2020. The results indicated that the growth of fiscal level shock,resulted in a low but positive effect on investment directly. However,the coefficient of cross effect between the growth of fiscal level shock and the fiscal policy uncertainty undermined the positive effect on industrial investment. The government has had two effects on industrial investment indirectly through the demand side shock. By creating demand, it has had a positive effect on industrial investment with the cross effect between the growth of the fiscal level shock and industrial sales. However, on the other hand, the growth of the fiscal level shock has been associated with the creation and growth of fiscal policy uncertainty, so that the cross effect between the growth of fiscal policy uncertainty and the growth of industrial sales on industrial investment shows a high negative coefficient. The results of these two effects suggest that due to high uncertainty,the indirect government effect on investment in 24 industrial groups is negative, which happens through the demand-side shock. Moreover, the growth of fiscal policy uncertainty, sanctions, and interest rates, respectively, have had the most adverse effect on investment in 24 industrial groups in Iran.

During the last three decades, financial sanctions have been imposed on Iran by the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations Security Council. This paper aims at estimating the effect of financial sanctions on the import of capital and intermediate goods in Iran, which was carried out for two independent time periods. The first period (2010-2013) includes multilateral financial sanctions, and the second period (2016-2019) includes multilateral sanctions and the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA. We examined the impact using the difference-in-difference (DID) method. The results of the first period indicate that the decrease in the imports of capital and intermediate goods in Iran depends more on the countries that "provided the sanctions plan" than the countries that did not provide the sanctions plan, because the coefficient of dummy variable for implementation in the random effects model is statistically significant. The negative effect of 0.007 on imports shows that the effect is weak, because this group of countries behaved differently. In the second period, the random effects model is statistically significant. In this model, the negetive effect of 0.22 on imports indicates a significant effect. Therefore, the reduction of Iran's imports in this period depends more on the countries that provided the sanctions plan than the countries that did not provide the plan.

By utilizing the new Keynesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper examines the effects of credit easing policy on macroeconomic variables with or emphasizing on production. For this purpose, a model has been design including 5 sectors of household, enterprises, banks, government and central bank. Considering the dominance of fiscal policy over monetary policy in the Iranian economy, the integrated constraint of the government and the central bank has been used. The model has been estimated using Bayesian method and quarterly time series data during 1991 to 2017. The results of Impulse Response Function show that implementation of this policy has increased consumption, investment, government spending and ultimately production, which indicates the effectiveness of this unconventional monetary policy to get the economy out of recession. Also, in response to the positive impulse of the central bank’s credit line to banks and the negative impulse of legal reserves, bank facilities increase, which is in line with theoretical expectations. The impact of the negative impulse of interbank market rate has also led to an increase in production credits. 

In the decade of 1979-1988, there was no development plan in Iran. During 1989-2022, six development plans implemented in Iran’s economy. The assessment of development plans conducted based on the performance and the results of economic indicators over the period. Economic Growth over the course of development plans was volatile. There has been a double-digit inflation rate over the course of the development plans and Productivity and the distribution of income indices were volatile. The challenges of planning in Iran include lack of common understanding on basic concepts of development plans, challenges of comprehensive plan, essential change due to external shocks, time span, parallel initiatives, coordination failure and lack of independent evaluation entity.

The causality between tourism growth and economic growth would not be very accurate regardless of the environmental factors affecting them such as the oil revenues. The present study investigates the effects of oil revenues on the causality between them, to present the difference between the two variables in oil-exporting countries. We examined the causal relationship using Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s model (2012) and the trivariate method in 9 oil-exporting countries from 1996 to 2019. The results show a one-way causal relationship between economic growth and tourism promotion in two variate causality but no relationship was found between them in trivariate. However, one-way causality is weakened when oil revenues are introduced. The causality of economic growth is not confirmed in the presence of oil revenues, as the causal relationship in the two-variable test is affected by the abundance of oil revenues. JEL Classification: F49, L83, O47, C21, C23

Sanction is defined as the restrictions over economic activity imposed by one international actor. It is a foreign policy tool in the United States foreign policy. Three key terms discussed throughout the book are sanction, pain, and resolve of sanctioned country. In the nine chapters of the book, the author discussed the design, and implementation of economic sanctions. The main points raised in the review are: a one-sided account of the book. It is an account of the sanction sender’s perspective. The other side of sanctions is the humanitarian problem stemming from sanctions. Moreover, studies on the economic consequences of sanctions on Iran were briefly presented, which are ignored in analyzing the implementation of the sanctions. The literature includes reducing economic growth, increasing income inequality, intergenerational effects of sanctions, effect of sanctions on food security, and impact of sanctions on public health expenditures._x000D_ Sanction is defined as the restrictions over economic activity imposed by one international actor. It is a foreign policy tool in the United States foreign policy. Three key terms discussed throughout the book are sanction, pain, and resolve of sanctioned country. In the nine chapters of the book, the author discussed the design, and implementation of economic sanctions. The main points raised in the review are: a one-sided account of the book. It is an account of the sanction sender’s perspective. The other side of sanctions is the humanitarian problem stemming from sanctions. Moreover, studies on the economic consequences of sanctions on Iran were briefly presented, which are ignored in analyzing the implementation of the sanctions. The literature includes reducing economic growth, increasing income inequality, intergenerational effects of sanctions, effect of sanctions on food security, and impact of sanctions on public health expenditures.

This review provides an assessment of the collection of contributions on the economic issues of COVID-19. The paper focused on the structure of the book and chapters’ content, quality of the publication, missing topics, predictions, and the pandemic effects on poverty and inequality. As the book is written during the initial stages of the pandemic, it does not contain the digital economy, cryptocurrency, health economics issues, sovereign debt, and resilience. The book is a useful text for graduate students in Economics and illuminating for economic policies during the COVID-19 pandemic._x000D_ This review provides an assessment of the collection of contributions on the economic issues of COVID-19. The paper focused on the structure of the book and chapters’ content, quality of the publication, missing topics, predictions, and the pandemic effects on poverty and inequality. As the book is written during the initial stages of the pandemic, it does not contain the digital economy, cryptocurrency, health economics issues, sovereign debt, and resilience. The book is a useful text for graduate students in Economics and illuminating for economic policies during the COVID-19 pandemic

Financial markets are channels for attracting surplus financial resources and allocating them to investment. Macro-prudential policy needs to consider financial cycle in order to assess the state of the financial sector, predict its developments and justify the need for specific policy tools. we examined the effect of macro-prudential policies on financial cycle of Iran's economy Over the period 2008-2018 using Unobserved Components Structural Time Series Model. We explored the effect of macro-prudential policy index and other variables on the financial cycle. The findings of this study, using the Generalized method of moments (GMM) for the time series data, suggested that the macro-prudential policy index has a negative and significant effect on the financial cycle in the Iranian economy. Also, the probability(likelihood) of a banking crisis, the interbank market loan rate and the economic growth index have positive and significant effect on the financial cycle.

Shadow banking is a term that came out of the financial crisis of 2007-2009. There is a belief that shadow banking was one of the crisis reasons. Because the excessive expansion of shadow banking endangers the financial stability of countries, this paper examines the impact of shadow banking on financial stability using data from 14 countries of the G20 during 2002-2018. We divided countries into four groups according to the level of shadow banking activity; then, we employed the quantile regression method. The results indicated that shadow banking hurts financial stability (positive impact on financial instability) in countries with a high shadow banking index (fourth group countries). One unit of increase in the shadow banking index increases financial instability in the fourth group countries (high shadow banking) by 1.6 units. But in countries where shadow banking is not very strong (other three groups), shadow banking does not significantly affect financial stability.

Stock Exchange Investors have paid more attention to the banking group in recent years so that in many cases, the direction of the banking index has changed the general direction of the market. Therefore, exploring the banking index fluctuation is important from the point of view of investors as well as the direction of the market. The purpose is to examine the effectiveness and direction of news, as one of the most important factors in the formation of volatility, on the banking group index in Tehran Stock Exchange by using 1460 daily records during 2018-2019 and the GARCH family's method. The data were collected for four different newsgroups, including economic, political, psychological, and financial. After that, the news that had more relationship with the banking group was separated to underscore in the weighting stage and divided into the positive and negative news, according to the perspectives of capital market experts and economic elites. The results indicated that newsgroups have a significant effect on the group index, and only the negative political model on the banking group has an asymmetric effect. The results indicated that political and economic news has a positive and significant impact on banking index fluctuations.