مطالب مرتبط با کلید واژه " Iran "


Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Iran: An Application of GARCH-in-Mean Model with FIML Method of Estimation

تعداد بازدید : ۷۱۴ تعداد دانلود : ۳۰۹
This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty for the period of 1990-2009 by using monthly data in the Iranian economy. The results of a two-step procedure such as Granger causality test which uses generated variables from the first stage as regressors in the second stage, suggests a positive relation between the mean and the variance of inflation. However, Pagan (1984) criticizes this two-step procedure for its misspecifications due to the use of generated variables from the first stage as regressors in the second stage. This paper uses the Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) method to address this issue. The estimates we gathered with the new set of specifications suggest that inflation causes inflation uncertainty, supporting the Friedman–Ball hypothesis.

Revisiting the Effects of Growth Uncertainty on Inflation in Iran:An Application of GARCH-in-Mean Models

تعداد بازدید : ۷۹۳ تعداد دانلود : ۳۰۸
This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and growth uncertainty in Iran for the period of 1988-2008 by using quarterly data. We employ Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate time-varying conditional residual variance of growth, as a standard measures of growth uncertainty. The empirical evidence shows that growth uncertainty affects the level of inflation. This result is in line with Feizi Yengjeh (2010), supporting Deveraux (1989) hypothesis.

Transboundary Water Management Improvements, the Way Forward in the Middle East; Case Study: Transboundary Water Management of Iran and Neighbors

کلید واژه ها: IranMiddle EastTransboundary WatersHydropoliticsIntegrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۶۲۲ تعداد دانلود : ۳۳۱
Human civilizations have been created and developed adjacent water resources such as rivers. The old Mesopotamia Civilization near Euphrates - Tigris Rivers, The Egypt Civilization near Nile River, The India Civilization near Indus River and The Burned City Civilization near Hirmand (Helmand) River and Hamoon lakes are samples of aforementioned civilizations. Demise of old Civilizations occurred according to wars, dangerous disasters and illness, droughts and deficiency of water. Today, with regards to limitation of ancient empires, kingdoms and governments and creation of new small and big countries, new boundaries have been established and the importance of fresh water resources and transboundary rivers has been increased much more and after that several challenges and disputes have been occurred between countries for accessing fresh water over these resources and even some serious disputes and wars between countries have been occurred in 20th century. According to aforementioned, government's consideration and attempts of countries are toward compiling new methods for water resources management specially based on principles of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). Also for decreasing challenges and disputes and prevention of new challenges, water treaties based on international laws, and previous historic water rights and or the necessity to friendship relations between countries could help us achieving to unique and more suitable solutions in Transboundary Waters. Iran and its neighbors have several Transboundary Rivers Basins such as Aras (with Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan), Atrak (with Turkmenistan), Arvanad (Shat-Al-Arab) (with Iraq), Hirmand and Harirud (with Afghanistan) and others. In this paper, after a brief survey on Transboundary Rivers of Middle East Countries, it is presented the experiences of Transboundary Water Management of Iran and its neighbors in several fields of implementations, challenges, successful and new required process for implementation of IWRM in the Transboundary Rivers.

U.S Offensive Policy toward Iran's Security in the Middle East and Persian Gulf after 33 day's War


کلید واژه ها: IranSecurity arrangementSecurityPreventive strikeWar

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۷۰۶ تعداد دانلود : ۳۳۱
U.S foreign policy interests in the Middle East and Persian Gulf region has always had three components: economy, security and politics. It is not overstated to stress the centrality of energy resources in the economic sector as a predominant factor. In this context, securing access to energy and the flow of oil become vital for world economic prosperity. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, added more impetus to the U.S security issues in the Persian Gulf. President Bush's doctrine of ""preemptive war"" and ""the global war on terror"" placed the Persian Gulf region at the heart of his post-9/11 strategic vision. The Bush administration used the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington as a great opportunity to revamp the regional security by undertaking some drastic measures. The invasion of Iraq in March 2003, the idea of regime change in Iran as well as other American Neocons' grandiose plans about the necessity to reshape the ""Greater Middle East"", made governments in the region nervous. In addition, by giving prominence to the ""security question"" over all other considerations, the US policy plunged the region deeper into uncertainty. Washington has systematically tried, and to a large extent succeeded, to securitize the inter-state relations in the region. This approach combined with the NATO plan to further its regional partnership, made any significant rapprochement among the Persian Gulf states on the issue of security almost impossible. For these reasons, a collective regionally crafted security arrangement that includes littoral states of Iran, Iraq the countries of Persian Gulf Cooperation Council would be unattainable in a foreseeable future.

Revisiting the Effects of Growth Uncertainty on Inflation in Iran:An Application of GARCH-in-Mean Models

کلید واژه ها: IranGrowth UncertaintyInflationGARCH-M models

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۷۴۲ تعداد دانلود : ۳۱۵
This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and growth uncertainty in Iran for the period of 1988-2008 by using quarterly data. We employ Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate time-varying conditional residual variance of growth, as a standard measures of growth uncertainty. The empirical evidence shows that growth uncertainty affects the level of inflation. This result is in line with Feizi Yengjeh (2010), supporting Deveraux (1989) hypothesis.

Estimation of Rural-Urban Migration in Iran (An Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Approach)

کلید واژه ها: IranMigrationUrbanismAuto-Regressive Distributed Lag

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تعداد بازدید : ۱۰۹۹ تعداد دانلود : ۳۷۴
Rural inhabitants’ perception of better life changes when observing the success of other people, and hope to emulate their success. They know that University degree can lead to a higher expected income. In fact urbanism has some benefits but the costs (pollution, congestion, and crime) are also pervasive in developing countries. In order to better understand the problem, and examine policy measures for controlling its negative externalities, it is of importance to study and analyze the factors which may affect migration. Therefore, in this study we investigated this important issue with emphasis on the effect of rural literacy level on rural-urban migration by using an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model utilizing time-series data related to the years 1959-2005 in Iran. Results indicate that in long term, rural literacy level has the most effect on this function. It was also found that, 1% increase in rural wage, urban wage, rural value added and rural literacy level can cause 0.25% decrease, 0.32% increase, 0.16% decrease and 0.32% increase in migrant’s number, respectively.

An Evaluation of Alternative BVAR Models for Forecasting Iranian Inflation


کلید واژه ها: IranBVAR modelsInflation Forecastingg-prior

حوزه های تخصصی:
  1. حوزه‌های تخصصی اقتصاد اقتصاد کلان و اقتصاد پولی قیمت ها،نوسانات تجاری،دورهای تجاری سطح عمومی قیمت ها،تورم
  2. حوزه‌های تخصصی اقتصاد روش های ریاضی و کمی مدل سازی اقتصادسنجی ارزیابی مدل
تعداد بازدید : ۸۱۶ تعداد دانلود : ۳۸۱
This paper investigates the use of different priors to improve the inflation forecasting performance of BVAR models with Litterman’s prior. A Quasi-Bayesian method, with several different priors, is applied to a VAR model of the Iranian economy from 1981:Q2 to 2007:Q1. A novel feature with this paper is the use of g-prior in the BVAR models to alleviate poor estimation of drift parameters of Traditional BVAR models. Some results are as follows: (1) our results show that in the Quasi-Bayesian framework, BVAR models with Normal-Wishart prior provides the most accurate forecasts of Iranian inflation; (2) The results also show that generally in the parsimonious models, the BVAR with g-prior performs better than BVAR with Litterman’s prior.

The Impact of Migrant Labor Force on Housing Sector’s Efficiency of Iran


کلید واژه ها: DEAIranPerformanceMigrantAfghansconstruction

حوزه های تخصصی:
  1. حوزه‌های تخصصی اقتصاد اقتصاد خرد اقتصاد جمعیت و اقتصاد کار تحرک،بیکاری و استخدام تحرک جغرافیایی نیروی کار،کارگران مهاجر
  2. حوزه‌های تخصصی اقتصاد اقتصاد بخشی،اقتصاد صنعتی،کشاورزی،انرژی،منابع طبیعی،محیط زیست اقتصاد صنعتی ساختار بازار،استراتژِ بنگاه و عملکرد بازار تولید،قیمت گذاری و ساختار بازار،توزیع سایز بنگاه ها در بازار
تعداد بازدید : ۸۰۴ تعداد دانلود : ۳۰۷
Iran has been host to the largest number of migrants in the form of Afghan refugees since 1982. These refugees have been permitted to find jobs in Iranian labour market, particularly in the labour intensive markets like manual jobs and construction activities which could not easily be filled by Iranian workers. The research provides a critical review of the impact of migrated Afghan labourers on the efficiency performance of the construction sector of Iranian economy during the period 2006 – 2009, using data envelopment analysis. Results show that, despite the high costs incurred by Iran as host to more than one million refugees, it also benefited from the presence of Afghans. Statistical analysis shows that there is a significant difference between the efficiency scores of the provinces using more migrant Afghan labour force and those having less concentration of such labourers in construction activities. That means most of the technically efficient states in construction activities have the opportunity to employ Afghan workers, since they used to be a very competitive and flexible labour force with unattractive payment. As a result the repatriation program of the Iranian government on Afghan refugees could be limited because of the low levels of substitution among Afghan and Iranian workers in the field of construction.

The Impact of Strike to Iran on Global Energy Market


کلید واژه ها: IranIran’s regional policyMilitary strikeGlobal Energy MarketCost -Benefit policy

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۵۵۸ تعداد دانلود : ۲۴۸
The security of Iran depended to many political factors. Geopolitical regions will be affected on global security and power. countries like Persian Gulf, and the stability of regional Countries depended on the global economy. It risks triggering arms race for preventing a strong state and powerful state in region. Strong state in Iran will change the balance of power in the Middle East. Persian Gulf countries will opposite with strong state in Iran. However, US intend to have political leaders in the region and the unraveling of the non-proliferation must conduct a robust public discussion that thoroughly treaty. US and its regional allies accused Iran for its capability in normative Ideology and revolutionary policy. In addition to those mentioned by Obama, there explores the nature of the Iranian threat, the different policy are many other costs of a nuclear Iran for regional and international countries. So they reaction to the Iranian capability and abilities. The competition of Persian Gulf and Middle East countries, will be affected on the future of regional security. Global economic cannot disregard of Iran’s policy and situation. It does not consider options available, and their consequences for great power and their policy in Persian Gulf. This article discusses on relationship Iranian regional and great power policy. Western allies argue that Iran’s influence in the region; emboldened Iranian-sponsored resistance groups, Iran’s nuclear attempts create enormously challenging such as Hezbollah; the further spread of radical Islamism issues with no easy solutions. In the public debate during and anti-Americanism in an already tumultuous region. In several years ago, especially since 2006 a recurring concern has been the economic reduced chance for Arab-Israeli peace; and greater military risks posed by the available means for preventing a nuclear deployments to the region that American taxpayers will Iran, whether tough sanctions or military action. Such need to fund to try to deter Iranian revolutionary policy.

A Critique on Shia Geopolitics Discourse; With Emphasis on Genealogical Approach

کلید واژه ها: IranKeywords: GenealogyDiscourse TerritorialityShia GeopoliticsShia Crescent

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تعداد بازدید : ۶۷۹ تعداد دانلود : ۲۸۷
The results of the research show that located of Shia Iran in Matrix Sunni countries in the Persian Gulf, Always one of The West Maneuver Fields was for political Pressure action against Iran. So that The schemes such as “Iran Fears”, “Shiite Crescent”, and “The New Middle East” from regional and trans-regional actors purely has been a strategy to drive out Iran from playground area. Geopolitics In modern thoughts was in based on place as a key factor in understanding the geopolitical zones. But, in the postmodern thoughts, is emphasized on “Space” Instead of “Place” are emphasis on near discourses to each other in public space. For example, the shia geopolitics unlike geopolitical objective effects, has no Visual effects neither the territory nor any level of mapping. But a kind of an attempt to strengthen new words Discourse after Cold War is that threatened the Shia is intended to produce soft power for the west Countries. The idiom of Shia Geopolitics is revealed a Power structure system which can be realized to incentive coined the term. This paper is trying with the re-reading of terminology of Shia Geopolitics, stressed Iran’s, through a “Conceptual Genealogy”, that is done in form of “Discourse Method”, and disclosure of the"" invisible structures of power ""to give a better understanding of these term.

Persian Gulf-Indian Ocean Geopolitical Intertwinement

کلید واژه ها: IranPersian GulfIndian OceanUnified fieldsOil

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تعداد بازدید : ۵۸۶ تعداد دانلود : ۲۴۴
The present paper is an attempt to discuss the symbiotic relationship between two geopolitical regions, i.e. the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean. Since the Persian Gulf access to the high seas is through the Indian Ocean sea-lanes, geopolitics of oil routes also should be studied in the light of the geopolitics of Indian Ocean. The main contention of the present paper is that there is a symbiotic relationship between the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf which goes much beyond mere morphological geographical connections. In fact, this symbiosis has a geopolitical-geographical nature as described by Stephen Jones' geopolitical theory of Unified Fields. In this perspective, the Persian Gulf is vitally dependent on the Indian Ocean while any development in the Persian Gulf would crucially affect the developments in Indian Ocean. The data required for this research were collected through documentary method which included books, journals and data available in statistical centers. The collected data have been analyzed to test the hypothesis within the framework of Stephen Jones’ Unified Field Theory. The findings of the research sustain the hypothesis indicating that there is a geopolitical symbiosis between the two water bodies.

The Impact of Exchange Rate on Demand for Money in Iran

کلید واژه ها: GMMIranMoney DemandExchange Rate

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تعداد بازدید : ۶۰۰ تعداد دانلود : ۲۴۷
Central banks have long been interested in obtaining precise estimations of money demand given the fact that the evolution of money demand plays a key role over several monetary variables. One implication of currency substitution is that the exchange rate could serve as another determinant of the demand for money. Due to the recent currency crisis in Iran, it would be important to investigate the phenomenon of currency substitution. By using quarterly data from Iran during 1990Q2 to 2013Q1 and the Generalized Method of Moments approach, we show that exchange rate in addition to real GDP, Inflation, lagged monetary aggregate has effect on the demand for real m2 in Iran. We found that income and lagged monetary aggregate elasticities are positive while the exchange rate elasticity and inflation coefficient are negative. This indicates that inflation and depreciation of domestic currency decreases the demand for money.

Manufacturing Firm Size Distribution in Iran Evidence from Food & Beverages and Non-Metallic Mineral Products

کلید واژه ها: IranFirm Size DistributionLognormal DistributionPareto DistributionManufacturing Industries

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۶۴۱ تعداد دانلود : ۲۷۵
Empirical studies have shown that the size distribution of firms can be described as a lognormal or Pareto distribution. However, these studies have focused on developed countries and little attention has been devoted to developing countries. Using the variable of number of employees as a measure of firm size, this paper investigates the shape of firm size distribution in the food & beverages industry and also in the non-metallic mineral products industry over the period of 1997-2005. Our findings show that there is no universality of the size distribution of firms between industries. In other words, the size distribution varies in terms of kind of industry, so that our results make it clear that food & beverages industry follows lognormal distribution, conversely to other industry which a good representation of Pareto distribution. From policy point of view, knowledge about firm size distribution caused new entrance firms to decide wisely and therefore provide improvement on performance after entry.

The Representation of Iran in Englishcentral Educational Website: Unfolding the Hidden Curriculum

کلید واژه ها: IranCritical discourse analysisHidden CurriculumVan Leeuwen’s Social Actor NetworkEnglishcentralEnglish Language Teaching (ELT)

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تعداد بازدید : ۶۵۳ تعداد دانلود : ۲۷۱
Despite their widespread popularity and rapid growth, the Internet-mediated English educational materials for learners of English as a foreign/second language (FL/SL) have rarely been analyzed in terms of their potential hidden curriculum. Accordingly, the present study aims to address this need through conducting a CDA investigation into some lessons which are randomly selected from an English educational website called “Englishcentral.” Adapting, expanding, and adopting some elements of Van Leeuwen’s (2008) Social Actor Network, the researchers attempt to describe and explain the representation of “Iran” in Englishcentral. Investigating and thematizing the research data revealed that the keyword “Iran” was used in this website to refer to three groups of social actors, namely the Iranian government and officials, Iranian people, and Iranian people and/or government/officials. The way these social actors are associated and dissociated, activated and passivated, personalized and impersonalized creates remarkable findings which give support to the presence of particular hidden agenda in this program. In all, the results of this study reveal that the Iranian social actors are portrayed unfavorably in Englishcentral, which is an alleged English educational program.

Explanation of the functions of Iran’s buffer status in the past two centuries

کلید واژه ها: IranGeopoliticsBuffer spacePowers RivalryGreat Game

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تعداد بازدید : ۴۶۱ تعداد دانلود : ۲۰۲
In the past two centuries, Iran as a buffer space, has played multi-functional roles in political and geopolitical arena due to power games of maritime and land empires of Britain and Russia in order to prevent the possibility of direct contact and conflict between rival powers. These functions have been performed sometimes by bilateral powers’agreements, sometimes by one of them and sometimes by Iran’s government and nation as a reaction against powers’ game. Although Iran has had a weak and neutral presence in these regional and global rivalries, it has had different important functions that can be presented as a model of functions and roles of buffer State. So, this research considers explaning the functions of Iran’s Buffer space with a descriptive- analytic methodology. Data gathering procedure is library and field finding. The research findings iluminate 22- functions in two general class of external functions and internal functions of Iran’s Buffer location.

بررسی روابط تجاری ایران و کمپانی هند شرقی انگلستان در دوره ی زندیه، براساس تئوری سیستمی

کلید واژه ها: IranPersian GulfSystem theorytraditionZand governmentBritish East India Company

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تعداد بازدید : ۸۷۰ تعداد دانلود : ۴۱۱
The adaptation of sociological theories to historical subjects, despite the problems it encounters, is something that new historiography should start to do for dynamism and to avoid pure quotation of historical events and it should enjoy the results of other fields studies, especially sociology. In this case, System Theory has an important position in appropriate analysis and explanation of historical events. This essay studies Iran’s traditional relations and British East India Company in Zand era based on System Theory in order to analyze the various results of these two system’s relation. For this purpose, written contracts between them, have been the basis of assessment. Karim Khan expected to flourish commerce and return security to Iranian coast of Persian Gulf, via commercial relations with British East India Company. On the other hand British East India Company aimed to self allocate the benefits of trade with Persian Gulf and eliminate other rivals. In line with this review, objectives, political and economic outcomes this business relationship for both, be determined.

Dynamic Relationship Between Macroeconomic Instability and Private Investment in the Iranian Economy

کلید واژه ها: IranPrivate InvestmentMacroeconomic InstabilityBounds Test ApproachTrivariate GARCH Model

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۵۷۴ تعداد دانلود : ۲۳۷
This paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic instability and private investment of the Iranian economy. The study uses a trivariate VAR(2)-GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean with diagonal BEKK approach to proxied inflation and exchange rate uncertainties as the main indicators of macroeconomic instability. Moreover, Bounds testing approach to level relationship applied to investigate the long-run relationship between macroeconomic instability and private investment. By taking the structural breaks into account, results of the paper reveal that there are mean spillovers between inflation, exchange rate and private investment. There also is a negative effect of macroeconomic instability on private investment over the period of study, 1988:1-2010:4. These results support Pindyck (1982, 1988, 1991), Caballero (1991), Ferderer (1993a), Caballero and Pindyck (1996).

Neutrality of the Regulated Price Shock on Price Indices When All Primary Factors’ Endowments Are Adjusted


کلید واژه ها: IranRegulated price shockStandard Leontief Price (SLP) ModelNeutral policy

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تعداد بازدید : ۴۵۵ تعداد دانلود : ۲۳۱
The regulated price policy may be implemented for some products. It is generally implemented for some products such as electricity, natural gas, water and so on that are supplied as monopolist. The regulated price shock on these products may lead to an adjustment in the endowments of primary factors. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of a regulated price shock on price indices when all primary production factors adjust their endowment with respect to a price shock. To this end, in addition to a mathematical approach, the matter is demonstrated practically for Iran’s economy through an extended Standard Leontief Price (SLP) model. The Input-Output table of Iran for the year 2001 is employed as the database of the research. The result of the research indicates that in a similar case, the regulated price shock is neutral and has no benefit for the monopolists who brought it up.

The Sensitivity of Central Bank Independence Measurements to Inflation in Iran: A New Approach

کلید واژه ها: ARDLIranSensitivity AnalysisCentral Bank Independence

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۷۷۳ تعداد دانلود : ۲۶۴
The purpose of this study is finding the sensitivity of central bank independence measurements on its impact on inflation in Iran. To this aim different measurements of the central bank independence were calculated using the indices of Grilli et al. (1991), Cukierman et al. (1992), Mathew (2006) and Dumiter (2009) for the period 1961-2012 . Although results of correlation between CBI index and inflation shows that there is a negative correlation between all CBI index and inflation, but the estimated results using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) show except for the index of Grilli et al. (1991) other indices have similar short run and long run significant negative effect on the inflation in Iran. So the CBI have the sensitivity to definition. Also, results of estimation shows that there isn’t any significant differences between the impact of Cukierman et al. (1992), Mathew (2006) and Dumiter (2009) index on the inflation. So this indices can be used interchangeably.

The Co-movement between Output and Prices: Evidence from Iran

کلید واژه ها: GARCHIranOutputDynamic Conditional CorrelationPrices

حوزه های تخصصی:
  1. حوزه‌های تخصصی اقتصاد اقتصاد کلان و اقتصاد پولی قیمت ها،نوسانات تجاری،دورهای تجاری سطح عمومی قیمت ها،تورم
  2. حوزه‌های تخصصی اقتصاد اقتصاد کلان و اقتصاد پولی مصرف،پس انداز،تولید،اشتغال و سرمایه گذاری تولید
تعداد بازدید : ۴۵۹ تعداد دانلود : ۱۹۹
This paper employs a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model, which is developed by Engle (2001, 2002), to detect the timing and nature of changes in the comovement between Iranian output and prices for the periods after Iran–Iraq war , known as imposed war . The results showed that there is a weak correlation between output and prices after imposed war and varies periodically and changes from positive to negative after imposed war and changes from negative to positive again after 2009 crisis in Iran. We conclude that there is a contagion effect of the price index on output. The predominantly negative output-price co-movement suggests that the overall price level was typically countercyclical rather than procyclical. These findings imply the presence of aggregate supply versus aggregate demand shocks and sticky prices. Supply shocks are the main causes of stagflation. To solve the problem of stagflation, governments must adopt policies to push out the aggregate supply curve