درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

In the wake of the capture of Iraqi lands, especially Mosul by the ISIS, the talk of disintegration of Iraq was ever more serious in political circles. The idea is still at issue even after the collapse of the ISIS and its defeat in Mosul. The main objective of this study is to examine whether ethnic and religious conflicts are powerful enough to lead to Iraq’s disintegration. Considering the recent developments in Iraq with pretexts of ethnic and religious conflicts, the question considered in this article is whether this situation could pose a threat to the territorial integrity of Iraq or not? Monitoring the positions of internal groups of Iraq, U.S. interests as well as neighboring countries including Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey indicates that disintegration of Iraq would not be beneficial for these countries and it will cause farther violence in the region. In this research, the roles of certain Foreign & domestic or International & national elements in the Iraqi politics and society are being analyzed. A study of the effect of the three variables of Kurds, Sunnis and Shias on Iraqi disintegration or integrity indicates that the Kurd variable has the largest contributing effect on Iraq disintegration while the other two variables show lesser potential for driving the country towards disintegration. Nevertheless, the interests of the regional and trans-regional states combined with the geographical situation of Iraq as a landlocked territory prove to be an obstacle in the way of disintegration of the country. According to the findings of this research, the territorial disintegration of Iraq does not seem to be a viable scenario and territorial integrity of Iraq is more consistent with the objectives and interests of local communities and foreign governments. <br />  <br /> 

This paper initially attempts to demonstrate that Iranian society has constantly attempted to democratize the authoritarian regime, but it usually fails in the transition stage. I have shown that the democratization process in Iran has often resulted in the creation of a newly shaped authoritarian structure rather than an institutionalized democratic regime.  Meanwhile, I have argued that the democratic process has not been interrupted and some of the minimum criteria of the transition process, such as the politics of periodic elections, have been realized in Iran. In this study the democratic transition has been explained through socioeconomic development. The data for this paper consist of forty-two cases of parliamentary and presidential elections. The hypothesis is evaluated using regression analysis technique. The empirical findings indicate that the proportion of the total variance of democratic transition which is explained by the socioeconomic development is 0.56 percent. This relation is positive and is statistically significant at .05 level. <br />  <br />