Futures Studies

A decade after the establishment of the Saudi regime Riyadh and Washington constructed a strategic alliance between themselves in 1945. On the other hand, given the “Pivot to Asia” doctrine adopted by the Obama and Trump Administrations, the decline of Washington's dependence on Saudi oil, as well as some important events such as the murdering of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Riyadh officials, the prospect of relations between the two countries has been highlighted in political circles. Based on a scenario-planning study, the current paper tries to answer the question: “what will happen to the future of US-Saudi relations considering the aftermath of the Khashoggi murder?” Concerning the impact of this fiasco on the future of US-Saudi relations, we can logically consider five scenarios: the continuation of the status quo, the deepening of strategic relations, the decline of strategic relations, a strategic shift, and, finally, the elimination of strategic relations. But given ongoing circumstances, the deepening or end of strategic relations is unlikely to happen, the present article only focuses on the three other scenarios; the continuation of the status quo, the power shift and the decline of strategic relations amidst the two countries. However, the removal of Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) from the position of crown prince (should it be low-cost) could also be in Washington's agenda for maintaining strategic ties between the two countries. The paper's hypothesis is inclined to the status quo scenario and argues that with the official stances of the Trump Administration, in particular that of November 20, 2018, the strategic alliance of Riyadh-Washington will continue, with more expenses shouldered from the Riyadh side.

Despite nearly two decades from Agenda 21 adoption, emphasizing the design and implementation of sustainable development indicators, there is no consensus on Sustainability indicators for designing and evaluating it to be acceptable to all elites and experts around the world. Recently, the issue of Intergenerational justice in sustainable development has been of great importance. This paper addresses the identification of environmental indicators related to intergenerational justice for sustainable development. The method of this research is qualitative and with respect to the target, it is an exploratory study. The participants in this study were 18 academic and executive experts selected by purposeful and non-probable methods. Interviews were analyzed through the thematic analysis method, and later the MAXQDA software was used to display the grid. The result of this research was the identification of 43 sub-themes in the form of nine themes. The themes were natural resources, social capital, laws and regulations, spatial planning, renewable energy, environmental vulnerability, environmental health and sustainability, environmental performance, and ecological footprint.

Supposing that today’s growing range of human needs with the increasing growth of technology is not only limited to material dimensions but non-material aspects are of an undeniable role in the human self-actualization. In this regard, the concept of spirituality dramatically manifests itself in different aspects of human life, even though the technological evolutions and tourism can be an important lever in this area. In this study, using content analysis techniques and using ideas of experts, we assessed the components of ‘styling the future’, ‘tourism’, and ‘spirituality’ comparing elements of these variables such that the relationship between tourism and spirituality was extracted in the form of ‘a sense of excellence’, ‘a sense of meaning’, ‘human values’ and ‘interaction with existence’. Also, the relationship between tourism and futures studies (futurology) was defined using the extracted parameters including ‘consultation prior to social and cultural reforms’, ‘future analysis and alert against challenges’, and ‘determining strategic priorities’. Eventually, in relation to these three components, the obtained results emphasized the need for taking the advantage of spirituality in the study of the tourism industry.

The present study was conducted to identify the future dimensions of smart city planning research. Participants in this study were municipal managers and urban planners with at least 15 years of experience and a master's degree or higher. Individuals were selected by purposive sampling. Sampling was performed with the participation of 10 experts. Data collection tools fell into two groups: 1- review and upstream documents, urban planning documents in the library section, 2- semi-structured interview in the field section where the semi-structured interview with the participants continued until the theoretical saturation stage. Content analysis method was used to analyze the qualitative data. In order to ensure the validity, the interview questions were approved by 3 experienced urban  planning experts and managers, 1 of whom had a master's degree and 2 of whom had a doctorate. In order to measure the reliability, the krippendorf coefficient was used, the overall coefficient of which was 84%. ATLASTI software has been used in the content analysis section. In order to identify future smart city planning research scenarios, SCENARIOWIZARD software has been used.  The results of factor analysis show that out of 176 available indicators (items), 33 basic themes can be identified and 9 categories of constructive themes have been obtained. Finally, 9 scenarios were identified based on the importance of all 9 factors. The results indicate that the main output of the realization of smart cities and e-municipality is to set conditions for providing services in the healthiest way to citizens, eliminating corruption, creating new job opportunities, and service and transformation in the economic and commercial sectors, increasing the effective presence of the private sector and improving the business environment, reducing damage to the environment, smart governance and increasing satisfaction

Purpose- The "Smart Village" approach includes long-term social, economic, and environmental activities of the rural community that involve widespread participation in local governance processes, promoting entrepreneurship, preserving the rural environment and, ultimately, sustainable development of rural areas. Therefore, the development of scenarios that facilitate the realization of the smart village approach in the peri-urban settlements of the metropolis of Tehran should be emphasized.Design/methodology/approach-This research is a descriptive-analytical study from the perspective of its objectives it is applied. Data and information were collected through library research, documentary studies, and survey methods (interviews). By reviewing scientific sources and conducting interviews with experts, 57 influencing factors of the smart village approach on the sustainability of peri-urban settlements were identified, categorized into 5 dimensions, and a total of 35 people, including managers of relevant organizations and university experts, were interviewed. The analysis of data was based on futures studies techniques, including structural analysis and mutual effects analysis (done using Micmac and Scenario Wizard software).Finding- The research findings show that there are a very large number of possible scenarios for the impact of the smart village on the sustainability of peri-urban settlements in the metropolis of Tehran within the range of Islamshahr County. Among them, 14 scenarios have weak compatibility and only 1 scenario is in a state of strong and sustainable compatibility (zero incompatibility). The first scenario, which is a positive one, has a mutual effect score of 733 and a compatibility value of 13, while the second scenario, which indicates unfavorable conditions for the future impact of the smart village on sustainable development, has a mutual effect score of -144 and a compatibility value of 5. The third scenario also has a compatibility value of -2 and with a mutual effect score of 63, it can be one of the impactful scenarios for the smart village on the sustainability of peri-urban settlements in the metropolis of Tehran. At the end of the research, operational suggestions are presented to enhance the indices of a smart village to achieve sustainable development in the rural settlements of the studied area.Originality/Value - For the first time in Iran, scenarios have been developed on the impact of smart villages on the sustainability of peri-urban settlements, and from this perspective, it is innovative and among the first research in the field.

Syria's political and security developments and the growth of Salafist and Takfiri groups and its political, economic, and cultural dimensions have disturbed all the Middle East equations. In this regard, the role of radical Islamist groups, including ISIL and Jabhat al-Nusra, in the civil war in Syria and Iraq, along with changing the political and security equations of the Middle East, has also brought serious threats to international security. Given that the Central Asian region has been in the spotlight for a long time due to its geostrategic, geopolitical and geo-economic importance and in a sense, considered the heartland of the world; with facing many challenges such as ethnic and political crises, energy, drug trafficking, and terrorism, this is no exception. The Syrian civil war and the rise of ISIL led to a possible extension of the wave of Islamic extremism to the Central Asian region; To the extent that, many citizens and youths of the republics of this region have entered the stage of communication and cooperation with ISIL and the Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria and Iraq. In this way, the present study seeks to explain the future of political Islam in Central Asia in light of Syrian political and security developments. Given the presence and command of some of the Central Asian Islamist groups in the Syrian civil war, the spread of the threat of terrorism in the Central Asian region, Understanding of these groups, their recruiting factors to ISIL, and recognizing the future scenarios of political Islam in Central Asia confirms the need for this research.

The purpose of this work is to use structural analysis to create believable scenarios of Iranian food tourism. In the present study, to formulate plausible scenarios, first by reviewing the literature and interviewing experts, 37 factors affecting food tourism were extracted. The variables affecting the future of food tourism, directly and indirectly, were calculated using a questionnaire and analysis by MICMAC software. Finally, considering the two most critical factors called food festivals and sanctions/international relations, plausible scenarios for the future of Iranian food tourism were developed. Based on the results, four scenarios are presented. These scenarios include Golden Scenario, Limited Scenario, Neglected Scenario and Chaotic Scenario. In Golden scenario, which depicts the ideal conditions, as many suitable food festivals as possible are being held in a country, and sanctions are not imposed. According to Limited Scenario, holding more and better food festivals is on the officials’ agenda, but on the other hand, the country is under sanctions and pressure. In Neglected Scenario, holding festivals is the same as in the past, and the country is not sanctioned. In Chaotic Scenario, depicting the worst-case scenario, the festival process is the same as in the past and has not been developed quantitatively and qualitatively. Also, the country is in a problematic situation of sanctions. Creating Credible The industry's major players and beneficiaries greatly benefit from Iranian food tourism scenarios, which enable them to provide flexible preparation-based programmers in response to shifting circumstances. The techniques and factors that influence the growth of the business will be known to the participants and recipients of food tourism, and this will open up a multitude of opportunities for the players involved.

The approach of convergence in the Islamic world as a prelude and path for Islamic countries to become a new pole of power in the world has been proposed and discussed for a long time among the thinkers and elites of Islamic countries. In this regard, various perspectives and strategies have been presented to achieve this geopolitical goal. Considering Iran's special geopolitical position as the gateway to the heartland of the world and the prospect of becoming a trans-regional power, the authors sought to describe the factors of this convergence and then provide an analysis of different strategies to achieve convergence in the Islamic world with Iran as its pivot. For this purpose, in this research by using a descriptive and analytical method, the five factors of convergence categorized by document collection, and then the strategies to achieve convergence have been mentioned with emphasis on the special capacity of the Islamic Republic to build civilization and play a role in future scenarios.