Scenario Planning

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of scenario planning on strategic innovation considering the mediating role of strategic thinking and strategic flexibility. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive survey in nature. The statistical population of the study is the manufacturing companies of Bushehr province. In order to determine the sample size, the test-software method (G-Power) was used. Based on this, 222 observations were calculated. Using a simple random sampling method with the online survey, 176 questionnaires were finally received by the researchers. Data analysis was performed using the structural equation method and Smart PLS 3 software. Research findings showed that scenario planning has a positive and significant effect on strategic innovation. The mediating effect of strategic flexibility and strategic thinking in the relationship between scenario planning and strategic innovation is also significant. The present study expands the management literature by filling in research gaps. Organizations today need to change their past strategies to be able to understand and meet customer needs faster and more competitively than other competitors.

The present study was conducted with the aim of scenario planning of the future of strategic agility in the Ministry of Sports and Youth of the Islamic Republic of Iran through using future research. The method used in this research is scenario-based planning, which is designed and performed in eight steps. The method of data collection in this qualitative study was based on interview, expert panel and Delphi survey. Twenty experts with specialized knowledge or practical experience were selected as the participants of the research through using snowball sampling. In the first part, acceleration to affairs and processes, the application of new managerial competencies, innovative and agile organizational structure, the use of emerging technologies, and the existence of a system of encouragement and punishment based on strategic agility were identified as key drivers. In the second part, it identifies and describes possible and compatible scenarios based on the drivers and related uncertainties, and it was found that out of the two proposed scenarios, only one scenario is in a promising situation. According to this scenario, by increasing the speed of the affairs and processes, the use of new managerial competencies, agile organizational structure, emerging technologies, and the existence of an incentive system, we can see the improvement of strategic agility in the Ministry of Sports and Youth.

Economic sanctions, involving trade restrictions imposed by one country or a group of countries against another, come in various forms, such as tariffs, trade barriers, and import/export restrictions. In recent times, Iran and Russia have become targets of diverse economic sanctions imposed by the Western Bloc. Given that both countries heavily rely on their energy sectors as the bedrock of their economies, this study focuses on assessing the impact of Western sanctions on Iran and Russia's energy industries. Employing the Futurology method (Scenario planning), the research examines the effects of Western sanctions on the energy sectors of Iran and Russia, and explores their respective responses to mitigate these adverse consequences. The findings highlight four potential scenarios for the future of the Iranian and Russian energy sectors, based on two megatrends of sanctions and geopolitical tensions. Among these scenarios, the "Ideal scenario" emerges as the most favorable outcome, while the "Austerity scenario" poses the greatest challenges. Despite the short-term efficacy of these strategies, the study underscores heightened long-term investment risks in both nations. Consequently, foreign investors' participation in the oil and gas sectors of Iran and Russia is expected to decline.

This study seeks to identify and describe believable and probable scenarios about the future engagement of children in cyberspace from the perspective of futures studies. Children's and adolescents’ access to the Internet and network-based technologies is becoming increasingly prevalent. So explaining the key factors and uncertainties affecting this phenomenon requires a comprehensive insight into current and emerging trends and the change drivers. For this purpose, after reviewing several useful technological and social trends, using scenario-based planning methodology, questionnaire tools and expert panel, 28 effective factors, ten key factors, and five driver forces (with uncertainty) were identified. Then, structural analysis and scenario logic explanations have been performed by Micmac, Scenario wizards, and cross-impact matrix analysis. Accordingly, the four scenarios of “salmon in the pool”, “salmon in the river”, “guppy in the tank”, and “goldfish in the pond” have been identified and narrated for the future of Iranian children's engagement in cyberspace. The findings of this study provide a more comprehensive understanding of believable futures while emphasizing the importance of engaging and addressing the interests of audiences and the needs of stakeholders in designing relevant strategies and broadening the horizons of decision-makers toward future alternatives.

The purpose of this work is to use structural analysis to create believable scenarios of Iranian food tourism. In the present study, to formulate plausible scenarios, first by reviewing the literature and interviewing experts, 37 factors affecting food tourism were extracted. The variables affecting the future of food tourism, directly and indirectly, were calculated using a questionnaire and analysis by MICMAC software. Finally, considering the two most critical factors called food festivals and sanctions/international relations, plausible scenarios for the future of Iranian food tourism were developed. Based on the results, four scenarios are presented. These scenarios include Golden Scenario, Limited Scenario, Neglected Scenario and Chaotic Scenario. In Golden scenario, which depicts the ideal conditions, as many suitable food festivals as possible are being held in a country, and sanctions are not imposed. According to Limited Scenario, holding more and better food festivals is on the officials’ agenda, but on the other hand, the country is under sanctions and pressure. In Neglected Scenario, holding festivals is the same as in the past, and the country is not sanctioned. In Chaotic Scenario, depicting the worst-case scenario, the festival process is the same as in the past and has not been developed quantitatively and qualitatively. Also, the country is in a problematic situation of sanctions. Creating Credible The industry's major players and beneficiaries greatly benefit from Iranian food tourism scenarios, which enable them to provide flexible preparation-based programmers in response to shifting circumstances. The techniques and factors that influence the growth of the business will be known to the participants and recipients of food tourism, and this will open up a multitude of opportunities for the players involved.

This study aimed to investigate the resilience of sports clubs as business enterprises in the crisis caused by the Coronavirus epidemic. Thirty-five experts in the field of sports club management were interviewed in three rounds of interviewing. In the first round, the main questions for the interview was determined, and then two series of interviews were carried out with experts. Basis of the analysis in the second one was content analysis approache. A summary of the answers given to the sample and interviewing were conducted again. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and one-sample t-tests were used to measure the resilience. In the next study section, the propulsive forces identified with the Delphi technique and prioritized based on the degree of importance and uncertainty, and Micmac was used to write possible scenarios. Results indicated that resilience of sports clubs was not in a good condition in the presence of crises and challenges. The findings showed that poor management of sports clubs and low income were the most influential critical factors in resilience. A low partnership index with a total of 201619 had the highest impact. Organizations that responded quickly and actively and were user-friendly under adverse economic conditions were more likely to succeed.