Scenario Writing

There are many opportunities and threats in the decision-making environment for managers, and an organization must use research and information systems to change, monitor, and anticipate this environment. Futurism reflects how tomorrow reality gives birth to tomorrow's reality is. The purpose of this research; Analyzing the role of futures studies in the existing patterns of critical factors of multi-criteria decision-making techniques in operations research using the philosophical assumptions of the classical and critical paradigms and finally determining the appropriate strategy based on these components, to increase success and life expectancy. The present study intends to formulate exploratory scenarios of this knowledge by using the critical uncertainty approach. To develop credible scenarios of knowledge of decision techniques, the opinions of 15 experts in this field were collected using the fuzzy Delphi approach and through the critical uncertainty questionnaire. After extracting the most important uncertainties, plausible scenarios of decision-making techniques were determined with the help of experts. According to the results obtained from the opinion of experts from the critical uncertainty questionnaire, four research uncertainties were identified, identified and the scenario design criteria were used. Each of the four cases, which includes low attention to social issues versus high attention to social issues, low attention to ethical models versus high attention to ethical models, low attention to soft approaches versus high attention to soft approaches, Low attention to complex issues versus high attention to complex issues indicates a specific dual situation in the future. Each of these dual situations indicates uncertainty about the future of multi-criteria decision making. Based on these uncertainties, three scenarios were identified. These scenarios include Achilles heel, phoenix, and heel. Also, semi-structured interviews with the theme analysis approach were used, and the philosophy of past and future approaches in this field was reviewed and critiqued.

Purpose- The "Smart Village" approach includes long-term social, economic, and environmental activities of the rural community that involve widespread participation in local governance processes, promoting entrepreneurship, preserving the rural environment and, ultimately, sustainable development of rural areas. Therefore, the development of scenarios that facilitate the realization of the smart village approach in the peri-urban settlements of the metropolis of Tehran should be emphasized.Design/methodology/approach-This research is a descriptive-analytical study from the perspective of its objectives it is applied. Data and information were collected through library research, documentary studies, and survey methods (interviews). By reviewing scientific sources and conducting interviews with experts, 57 influencing factors of the smart village approach on the sustainability of peri-urban settlements were identified, categorized into 5 dimensions, and a total of 35 people, including managers of relevant organizations and university experts, were interviewed. The analysis of data was based on futures studies techniques, including structural analysis and mutual effects analysis (done using Micmac and Scenario Wizard software).Finding- The research findings show that there are a very large number of possible scenarios for the impact of the smart village on the sustainability of peri-urban settlements in the metropolis of Tehran within the range of Islamshahr County. Among them, 14 scenarios have weak compatibility and only 1 scenario is in a state of strong and sustainable compatibility (zero incompatibility). The first scenario, which is a positive one, has a mutual effect score of 733 and a compatibility value of 13, while the second scenario, which indicates unfavorable conditions for the future impact of the smart village on sustainable development, has a mutual effect score of -144 and a compatibility value of 5. The third scenario also has a compatibility value of -2 and with a mutual effect score of 63, it can be one of the impactful scenarios for the smart village on the sustainability of peri-urban settlements in the metropolis of Tehran. At the end of the research, operational suggestions are presented to enhance the indices of a smart village to achieve sustainable development in the rural settlements of the studied area.Originality/Value - For the first time in Iran, scenarios have been developed on the impact of smart villages on the sustainability of peri-urban settlements, and from this perspective, it is innovative and among the first research in the field.