International Economic Studies

International Economic Studies

International Economics Studies, 51, Issue 1, Winter and Spring 2021 (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

مقالات

۱.

Financial Sanctions and Economic Growth: An Intervention Time-series Approach(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلید واژه ها: Financial Sanctions رشد اقتصادی: Economic Growth Intervention Model

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۶۵۳ تعداد دانلود : ۳۶۷
In the present study, the authors examined the impact of financial sanctions on economic growth using Iran's data and intervention time-series analysis over the period 2005-2017. Financial sanctions targeted the country's financial resources and increased interest rates and medium- and long-term financing costs. In general, financial sanctions adversely affected the financial sector. In this regard, blocking of assets and restricted access to financial and foreign exchange resources, depreciated domestic currency, reduced investment, exports, and production along with increased inflation and unemployment ultimately reduced economic growth. The results indicated the effectiveness of financial sanctions on economic growth in the short-run. However, during the third period (2010-2014), when severe and multilateral financial sanctions are imposed, the coefficient is negative (0.54), which is higher, compared to the other periods. As the economic sanctions of Iran have intensified, the economic growth has slowed down. Nevertheless, in the long run, financial sanctions have had a weaker negative effect of 0.19 on the economic growth.
۲.

Is Friedman Still Right?(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلید واژه ها: Monetary policy Unemployment Search and Matching Theory

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۶۹ تعداد دانلود : ۵۱
This paper has investigated the role of search and matching frictions in a monetary model and examined if the Friedman rule, advocating a rate of deflation equal to real interest rate, is still right. We defined a dynamic programming problem in which money is situated in the model by cash in advance constraint, and used a numerical method (value function iteration method) to solve the pre-mentioned problem. Also, in this paper, the concept of the homogenous agent is substituted by the heterogeneous agent, and there are two groups of agents, namely unemployed and employed agents. The difference between the two divergence groups is indicated by different constraints in this study. According to our model, the Friedman rule will not maximize the aggregate welfare of the assumed society with this new friction. It is noteworthy that the parameters of the numerical model have been derived from the United States economy and the essay is theoretical. The results can be applied in different economies with their specific parameters. Also, the study offers some implications to central banks. JEL Classification: E52, E24, C78.
۳.

Time and Frequency Dynamics of Connectedness among Emerging MENA Stock Markets, Brent Crude Oil, and Gold Market(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلید واژه ها: Brent Crude oil Frequency Return Connectedness MENA Stock Markets

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۴۴ تعداد دانلود : ۴۳
This study investigates the return connectedness across the major Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stock markets, Brent crude oil, and Gold, from April 2008 to July 2019 using the frequency-domain framework and causality among these markets. Three different periods, including the short term, medium term, and long term are considered to analyze the interconnectedness of markets. The results of the study indicate that the markets are more connected and speculative in the short term, thus there is less chance of portfolio diversification among these markets in the short term. The QE general contributes more to the Brent crude oil market in the short term, and Tadawul has more connectedness with this market in other timeframes. Moreover, among MENA stock markets, the QE general contributes more to the short term and medium term and ADX general has more influence on other markets in the long term. The financial crisis of 2008 and the oil price crash during 2014 increased the total return connectedness of these markets with the shocks having long-lasting effects. The findings of this study can offer new insights to policymakers and investors. JEL Classification: C18, C32, G15
۴.

Dynamic Effects of Accession to the WTO on Industrial Sector in Iran: Application of the RDCGE Model(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:

کلید واژه ها: World Trade Organization Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Trade Liberalization MFN Tariffs Nash equilibrium

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۳۵ تعداد دانلود : ۳۴
The present study aims to analyze the long-term impact of tariff reductions to be mandated in the event of accession of Iran to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the industrial sector using the Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model. For this purpose, the model was calibrated for the 2011 social accounting matrix of Iran. In the baseline scenario, it was assumed that the Iranian economy will experience annual growth of 2% without accession to the WTO, which is the same rate as the population growth. In the alternative scenario, the tariff reduction simulation was performed based on the average tariff commitments of 22 developing countries acceded to the WTO. Based on the results, industrial production and exports will shrink by 3.4 and 3.5%, respectively, over the 30 years after joining the WTO, leading to an 81% gap between the production levels in the alternative and baseline scenarios at the end of this period. JEL Classification: I38, C68, F13.
۵.

An Investigation of the Impacts of Institutional Quality, Intellectual Property Rights and Human Capital on Economic Growth: Some Evidence from G7 and D8 Countries(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:

کلید واژه ها: economic growth Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) Model Institutional Quality Index

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۲۷ تعداد دانلود : ۳۲
The existing literature primarily indicates a positive association between institutions and economic growth. However, institutions do not exert a similar impact on economic growth across different sets of countries. In this study, we analyzed the impact of institutional quality on economic growth using a sample of 15 members from G7 and D8 Countries in the period 1984-2017 using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression framework. González, Teräsvirta, and Van Dijk (2005) indicated that there is a non-linear relation between institutional quality and growth modulated by institutional development. On the other hand, we found that institutional quality can positively (or negatively) affect growth in case of a low (high) level of institutional development. This result suggests therefore a reconciliation of the theories asserting that institutional quality can “sand the wheels” or “grease the wheels” of economic growth. The main result of this study confirms the negative impact of institutional quality on economic growth in this block of countries. JEL Classification: K14. K15, K18.
۶.

Dynamics of Tourism and Economic Growth in the Oil-Exporting Economies: A Tri-Variate Causality(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلید واژه ها: Tourism economic growth Oil - exporting Countries Tri - Variate Causality

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۳۱۳ تعداد دانلود : ۱۴۸
The causality between tourism growth and economic growth would not be very accurate regardless of the environmental factors affecting them such as the oil revenues. The present study investigates the effects of oil revenues on the causality between them, to present the difference between the two variables in oil-exporting countries. We examined the causal relationship using Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s model (2012) and the trivariate method in 9 oil-exporting countries from 1996 to 2019. The results show a one-way causal relationship between economic growth and tourism promotion in two variate causality but no relationship was found between them in trivariate. However, one-way causality is weakened when oil revenues are introduced. The causality of economic growth is not confirmed in the presence of oil revenues, as the causal relationship in the two-variable test is affected by the abundance of oil revenues. JEL Classification: F49, L83, O47, C21, C23

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