سید حسین میرجلیلی

Resource-rich developing countries are forced by economic fluctuations due to international commodity price movement. One way to reduce the volatility adverse effects is to establish institutions such as Sovereign Wealth Fund. However, the way this fund is managed is important. Iran, as a resource-rich developing country, suffers from economic fluctuations. In order to manage resource revenues, National Development Fund (NDF) has been established. In this paper, using DSGE model, we examined different scenarios for managing fund resources. A scenario, without any stabilizer Fund and two different scenario for National Development Fund. In the second scenario, NDF has a role like the one in Sixth Development Plan. In the third scenario, all oil revenues are deposited to NDF and a part of the fund as much as interest rate in the OECD countries plus 70% of long run oil revenues invested in the economy. The Results indicated that the management of oil revenues by the Fund, in which the inflow of oil revenues into the economy follows the commitment, is an appropriate policy to reduce the economic fluctuations in Iran.

In the decade of 1979-1988, there was no development plan in Iran. During 1989-2022, six development plans implemented in Iran’s economy. The assessment of development plans conducted based on the performance and the results of economic indicators over the period. Economic Growth over the course of development plans was volatile. There has been a double-digit inflation rate over the course of the development plans and Productivity and the distribution of income indices were volatile. The challenges of planning in Iran include lack of common understanding on basic concepts of development plans, challenges of comprehensive plan, essential change due to external shocks, time span, parallel initiatives, coordination failure and lack of independent evaluation entity.

Financial Sector includes financial institutions, financial instruments, financial markets, regulations over the financial sector, and policy-making organizations in the financial sector. Financial institutions that collect deposits of the public are consist of governmental(governmental and developmental) and private banks, non-banking financial institutions, credit unions, and Gharz-ul-Hassanah Funds. Commercial insurance companies, social insurances, pension funds are contractual financial intermediaries within the Iranian economy. Investment companies that invest in securities act as investment financial institutions. In the money market, there exist banks, non-banking financial institutions, credit unions, and Gharz-ul-Hasanah Funds. The most important capital market institution in Iran is the Tehran Stock Exchange and there is no derivatives market. Financial instruments within the financial sector of the Iranian economy are stocks, Participation certificates of advantageous projects, and short term and long term deposits in banks. The major regulations over the financial sector in Iran are the law for interest-free banking operation, monetary and banking law, establishment law for securities exchange and the law for issuance methods of participation certificates, and the establishment law for central insurance of Iran and insurer. Some of the challenges within the financial sector of Iran are as follows: Bank-base-system of the financial sector, government's intervention in profit rate assignment and provision of compulsory facilities, lack of presence of private sector within the derivative market, taking effects of monetary policy from fiscal policies and the non-diversified securities within the capital market.

Islamic banks had demonstrated significant resilience during the global financial crisis, because of relying on real economic activities , avoiding toxic financial derivatives, and keeping higher liquid assets. However, they were vulnerable afterward in economic crisis. Canadian banks as an example of the most successful conventional banks during both the global financial and economic crisis, also had demonstrated significant resilience, because of institutional setting, prudential regulator, high capital-asset ratio, leverage cap, and conservative mortgage market. Islamic banks can learn from this experience and make a reform on liquidity management , corporate governance and consider the experience of resilient conventional banks.

This paper examines potential output with alternative methods for the period 1978-2008 using annual data of the Iranian economy. We applied Hodrick - Prescott Filter, Production Function and SVAR methods for estimation of annually potential output. The results show that the turning points for these methods look similar and almost produce similar results for output gap. Also the estimated potential output and output gap are conformed to economic and political events as output gap has decreased in war period (1980-1989) because of war expenditures, reducing production and therefore decreasing GDP. Also Iranian economy has been faced with negative output gap and therefore a severe recession because of the crisis in South East Asia in late 1990s. Gap trend is uprising after 2005 for the reason that happening oil shock and economic advancement for increasing oil income.

After the Islamic Revolution in Iran, investing in bonds by the private sector was recognized as incompatible in accordance with Islamic jurisprudence. Therefore Musharakah certificate substituted bond. Musharakah sukuk is bearer or registered securities issued based on certain par value for the certain period of time and sold to the investors which want to participate on execution of projects. Issuer, subject-matter of participation, on-account profit, agent and Trustee are the components of the sukuk in the Law concerned. Development of Musharakah sukuk in two phases, from it's commence in 1994 to now was explained in the article with the characteristic of some projects. In spite of remarkable successes of Musharakah sukuk in Irn, it faces some challenges.