ژئوانرژیک ایران در دوره انتقال انرژی، با تاکید بر ژئوانرژیک گاز طبیعی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
ژئوانرژیک به عنوان شاخه ای از ژئوپولیتیک پست مدرن، امروزه و در آغازین دهه های قرن بیست و یکم، از جایگاه ویژه ای در رشد و توسعه اقتصادی کشورها برخوردار است. منابع و ذخائر نفت و گاز ایران به عنوان مهمترین منابع اقتصادی کشور محسوب می شوند. لیکن کشور ما طی سه دهه اخیر پس از پایان جنگ سرد، علیرغم موقعیت ممتاز ژئواکونومیک و ژئوانرژیک، به جایگاهی متناسب با ظرفیت ها و پتانسیل های اقتصاد جغرافیایی خود دست نیافته است. . مسئله اصلی تحقیق این است که، میزان نقش و اهمیت گاز طبیعی در تجارت جهانی انرژی و ژئوانرژیک ایران، در دوره انتقال انرژی و تا پایان نیمه اول قرن بیست و یکم در سطوح منطقه ای و جهانی چگونه است؟ بر این اساس فرضیه تحقیق عبارت است از اینکه، گاز طبیعی در دوره انتقال و تا پایان نیمه اول قرن بیست و یکم، دارای نقش و اهمیت اساسی در تجارت جهانی انرژی و ژئوانرژیک ایران است. روش تحقیق بر اساس هدف از نوع کاربردی و بر اساس ماهیت از نوع توصیفی و تحلیلی است. نتایج و یافته های پژوهش نشان می دهد، که با توجه به مزیت ها، تقاضا و مصرف روزافزون گاز طبیعی در دوره انتقال از یک سو، و موقعیت جغرافیایی و ظرفیت های کم نظیر ژئوانرژیک ایران جهت تولید و صادرات گاز طبیعی از سوی دیگر، توسعه زیرساخت های تولید و صادرات گاز طبیعی می تواند کاهش صادرات و درآمدهای نفتی ایران را در دوره انتقال از سوخت های فسیلی به انرژی های تجدیدپذیر، را جبران نماید.Iran’s Geoenergics During Energy Transition Period: With an Emphasis on Geoenergics of Natural Gas
As a branch of postmodern geopolitics, geoenergics has a special place in the economic growth and development of countries today and in the early decades of the 21st century. in the last three decades after the end of the Cold War, despite the geoeconomics and geoenergics privileged position, our country has not reached a position commensurate with the capacities and potentials of its geographical economy. . The main problem of the research is, how is the role and importance of natural gas in global energy trade and Iran's geoenergics, in the period of energy transition and until the end of the first half of the 21st century at the regional and global levels? The research method is based on the purpose of the applied type and based on the nature of the descriptive and analytical type. The results and findings of the research show that due to the advantages, increasing demand and consumption of natural gas in the transition period on the one hand, and the geographical location and unique geoenergics capacities of Iran for the production and export of natural gas on the other hand, the development of production and export infrastructure Natural gas can compensate for the decrease in Iran's oil exports and revenues during the period of transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies.IntroductionWithin the field of postmodern geopolitics, geoenergics plays a unique role in the economic progress and advancement of countries currently and in the early 21st century. Iranian oil and gas reserves are regarded as the country's most valuable economic assets. Nevertheless, this country has not attained a position commensurate with the capabilities and potentials of its geographic economy in the last three decades following the end of the Cold War, despite its advantageous geo-economic and geo-energetic position. The primary question of this study is as follows: How significant is natural gas to Iran's international energy and geoenergic trade, both locally and globally, during the energy transition and until the end of the first half of the 21st century? Accordingly, this study hypothesizes that natural gas plays a fundamental role and is important in Iran's global energy and geoenergic trade during the transition period and until the end of the first half of the 21st century. This study first explains the importance and place of geoenergics in postmodern geopolitics and then discusses the geoenergics of natural gas, with an emphasis on Iran's natural gas reserve. As a result, aims to analyze the growing importance of natural gas as a transition fuel in Iran's geoenergics and global energy geopolitics in the coming decades. Theoretical FrameworkThe study of international politics and national security in the context of global energy is known as geoenergics or energy geopolitics. Geoenergics is a science that greatly determines the dominant position of countries over a relatively long historical period. This makes energy a major geopolitical issue because it fits within the three categories of geography, power, and politics as well as their dimensions. Because of its quantitative methodology, geoenergics, as a subset of postmodern geoeconomics and geopolitics, concentrates well on concrete findings. In contrast to traditional geopolitics, geoenergics is based on a scientific framework that studies the main energy sources found in the physical environment and how their production, trade, and transfer affect regional and global political competition as well as economic competition. MethodologyThis was an applied, descriptive-analytical study that employed desk studies (review of articles and papers, library resources, and statistical reports of research centers and organizations related to energy) and interviews to examine the hypotheses. Results and DiscussionPredictions indicate that natural gas will play a bigger role in providing energy to human societies than oil and coal because of its relative advantages during the transition period and at least through the end of the first half of the twenty-first century. As a result, natural gas is known as a “transition fuel” that offers a means of cutting greenhouse gas emissions. The growing importance of natural gas as a “transition fuel” in the energy shift from fossil fuels to clean and renewable fuels, as well as increasing its consumption in the coming decades, provides an opportunity to review Iran’s economic diplomacy and, as a result, its energy diplomacy, in line with the country's geoenergic capacities to increase natural gas production and export. Although Iran possesses the second-largest natural gas reserves in the world, this country does not have much time to change its energy policies and utilize its enormous and distinctive capacities because it is time-consuming to provide the necessary infrastructure. Nevertheless, the transition from fossil fuels to clean and renewable sources of energy has been underway for more than 20 years and is moving forward quickly.5.Conclusion and RecommendationsIran has never had a "comprehensive energy strategy" to properly utilize its geoenergic resources, particularly its vast reserves of natural gas, to further its economic development and national interests as well as to improve its position in the international political and economic arena on a regional and global scale. The study findings showed that the benefits of natural gas during the transition period, i.e., its rising demand and consumption, on the one hand, and Iran's unique geoenergic capacities and geographic location for natural gas production and export, on the other, can make up for its declining oil exports and income during this time of shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources by developing the infrastructure for the natural gas production and export. Furthermore, providing the framework for the growth of natural gas export and production can give Iran the leverage it needs to draw in foreign investment and acquire renewable energy technologies in the course of energy transfer. The development of natural gas infrastructures in tandem with de-carbonization strategies can reduce investment costs and project implementation time because they can be utilized in the future for the transfer of low-carbon gases, low-emission hydrogen, biomethane, and artificial methane. .
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