مطالب

Monetary policy is one of the most important tools for policymakers to influence macroeconomic variables including production. However, implementing this policy sometimes yields unintended consequences. Understanding monetary policy transmission mechanisms is therefore critical for effective implementation. Research following the 2008-2009 financial crisis indicates that the shadow banking activity can disrupt the monetary policy transmission and weaken its effectiveness. An analysis of Iran’s financial system reveals increasing shadow banking activity. This paper therefore examines how shadow banking affects monetary policy transmission in Iran using a DSGE model that innovatively incorporates the shadow banking sector. We compare two scenarios: a financial system without shadow banking and one including shadow banking. The effects of two contractionary monetary policies—interest rate increase and reductions in money supply growth—on GDP, investment, and inflation were analyzed under each scenario. The findings indicate that shadow banking diminishes monetary policy’s impact on all three variables by weakening the credit channel of monetary policy transmission. In the scenario without shadow banking, In the scenario without shadow banking, all three variables will decline in response to the monetary shock of decreasing money supply growth. However, in the scenario with shadow banking, investment levels are not declining but rising. The impact of monetary policy on output and inflation is diminished in the presence of shadow banking. In the case of interest rate shocks, the results also indicate a negative impact of shadow banking on the effectiveness of monetary policy.

Every ethical system possesses at least six core elements: a theory of moral value, fundamental moral principles, rules of inference, incentives for adhering to ethical principles and rules, enforcement mechanisms for those principles and rules, and a justification for the necessity of being moral and for the validity of the said ethical system. This system is constructed and refined based on sources of moral knowledge and ethical foundations and is presented to its target society. Within this system, the theory of moral value is recognized as the principal element, upon which all other elements rely in some manner. Within Jewish ethical systems, two distinct theories are observed concerning the theory of moral value: "A deontological perspective and a teleological perspective. Some scholars currently argue that Jewish ethics is deontological and present reasoning for this position." This paper, with reference to the Tanakh (the Old Testament) and the foundations of ethics in Judaism, emphasizes the teleological viewpoint and critiques the arguments put forth by deontologists. The difference between these two perspectives has been notably evident in the conduct of the Zionist regime and its supporters over the past two years. From a deontological viewpoint, it is sufficient for a religious scholar to justify, based on their own interpretation, the massacre of the people of Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran by citing a divine command; in this scenario, no rational, empirical or even emotional argument can prevent such crimes.

Accurate stock market forecasting is a challenging and complex problem for the market analysts and decision makers. During the past decade’s accuracy of different methods are examined yet there is no consensus on optimum forecasting method. In this regard, the main objective of present study is to investigate eligibility of nonlinear time series, such as exponential smoothing and regime-switching models beside Box-Jenkins scheme in forecasting of stock return time series. Data set consist of daily observations of Apple and Microsoft corporations as of 2024 to 2025. The Terasvirta-Lin-Granger procedure chaotic behavior of data generating process of the selected samples being examined. The Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive procedure combined with GARCH component (SETARMA-GARCH) and ARMA model combined with EGARCH component (ARMA-EGARCH) in order to capture the heterogeneous variance of financial time series, which yield dynamic hybrid models. Moreover, due to the overwhelming application of Artificial Intelligence methods in computation, besides the Exponential Smoothing (ES) approach as a non-parametric method, a recently developed Multilayer Perceptron Network (MLP) based on Feed-Forward-Back Propagation (FF-BP) algorithm being developed either. Both of the in-sample and out-sample forecasting are carried out and performance of models is evaluated using standard error criteria. Finally, the Diebold-Mariano test is employed in order to determine the significance of forecasting differences among the models. Findings indicated that the behavior of the return series for the both of the corporations are chaotic and nonlinear methods are appropriate in modeling. The exponential smoothing method outperformed the developed SETARMA-GARCH and ARMA-EGARCH procedures in terms of the majority of error criteria in the both of in-sample and out-sample forecasting. However, the MLP has outweighed the ES model based on every calculated error criteria. The estimated S-statistic of Diebold-Mariano test confirmed results of the forecasting in favor of the MLP method. This finding suggests application of the dynamic nonparametric methods in modeling and forecasting of the selected time series. Implication of such finding recommends use of dynamic nonlinear and nonparametric methods in financial series prediction.

The Noble Quran and the Testaments share the common feature of being composed of various parts or chapters. These chapters are called "Surahs" in the Quran and "Books" in the Testaments. Unlike the Testaments, whose content mostly possesses a linear order similar to human books, with each book usually centered on a specific or general topic, the Surahs of the Quran—with the exception of the shorter Surahs and some collectively-revealed ones—typically lack a specific topic and order, appearing as if diverse and varied subjects are scattered throughout them (the "Scattered" nature of the Quran). Some believe the human-like order of the Testaments indicates their human origin, while the non-human order of the verses in the Quran's Surahs is a sign of its divine origin. However, according to this research, conducted using library resources and critical analysis method, neither the structure of the Testaments and their similarity to human books is proof of their non-divine origin, nor is the scattered structure of most long Quranic Surahs and their dissimilarity to the order found in most human books proof of its divine origin.