رویکردهای متقابل جمهوری اسلامی ایران و ایالات متحده نسبت به یکدیگر در پرتو برجام (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
تلاش های گسترده ای در راستای دیپلماسی هسته ای، بین ایران و 1+ 5 انجام شده است، که در نهایت منجر به توافق برجام شد. در این مقاله ضمن بررسی دوران پسابرجام، با استفاده از نظریه بازدارندگی به تحلیل سیاستگذاری ایران در قبال ایالات متحده امریکا و ارائه راهکار متناسب پرداخته خواهد شد. همچنین در مقاله پیش رو استراتژی مختلف طرفین، پیامد هر استراتژی را برای درک صحیح و راحت آن، به صورت کمی بیان می گردد. در این مقاله پرسش اصلی عبارت است از؛ راهبرد سیاست خارجی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در دوران پسابرجام در قبال ایالات متحده امریکا از منظر نظریه بازدارندگی بر مبنای چه رویکرد و مؤلفه هایی قابل تحلیل و ارزیابی می باشد؟ فرضیه اصلی؛ سیاست خارجی ایران در دوران پسابرجام بر اساس راهبرد تهاجمی امریکا در چارچوب رویکرد واقع گرایانه تدافعی بازدارنده مبتنی بر ارتباط ایران با کشورهای همسایه و تقویت محور مقاوت و احتساب عقلایی به منظور کاهش هزینه و افزایش منافع قابل تبیین و واکاوی می باشد. هدف اصلی؛ بررسی و واکاوی راهبرد سیاست خارجی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در دوران پسابرجام در قبال ایالات متحده امریکا از منظر نظریه بازدارندگی می باشد. در این پژوهش از روش کتابخانه ای برای گردآوری منابع و از روش توصیفی تحلیلی برای تجزیه و تحلیل مطالب استفاده شده است.Conflicting Approaches of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States towards each other in the light of JCPOA
Extensive efforts have been made in the direction of nuclear diplomacy between Iran and the 5+1, which ultimately led to the JCPOA agreement. In this article, while examining the post-JCPOA era, using the theory of deterrence, the analysis of Iran's policies towards the United States of America will be discussed and a suitable solution will be presented. Also, in the article leading to the different strategies of the parties, the consequence of each strategy is expressed quantitatively for its correct and easy understanding. In this article, the main question is; From the perspective of deterrence theory, the foreign policy strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the post-JCPOA era can be analyzed and evaluated based on what approach and components? The main hypothesis; Iran's foreign policy in the post-JCPOA era is based on America's offensive strategy in the framework of a realistic deterrent defensive approach based on Iran's relationship with neighboring countries and strengthening the axis of resistance and rational calculation in order to reduce costs and increase benefits. The main objective; The review and analysis of the foreign policy strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the post JCPOA era towards the United States of America is from the perspective of deterrence theory. In this research, a library method was used to collect sources and a descriptive analytical method was used to analyze the materials.IntroductionIran is always considered one of the most important issues in the US foreign policy. The political, cultural and economic geography of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Middle East region has created a special attraction for the United States of America, and during the last forty-four years, four different approaches have been used regarding Iran, which can be summarized as He pointed out the approach of compromise, the approach of war with Iran, the approach of changing the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and finally the approach of accepting Iran as a global nuclear power and adopting deterrence against it. On the other hand, after the JCPOA agreement, the Islamic Republic of Iran also discussed important issues such as the lifting of sanctions, the discussion and review of the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA, the creation of a mechanism to maintain trade exchanges with the European Union, the preservation and maintenance of the missile power of the Islamic Republic of Iran and review The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) was centralized, which was of particular importance.2.Theoretical FrameworkEmphasizing the authenticity of power in human relations, this view considers being armed as a factor of peace and stability. During the era when the United States of America had a monopoly on nuclear weapons, there was no systematic strategic theory of deterrence, before that, the policy of deterrence or deterrence emerged as suggested by international relations thinker George Kennan. He neither emphasized nor rejected the means of blocking penetration, but believed that these tools, along with the existing political and economic levers, form a part of the diplomatic tools. In July 2015, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council along with Germany reached a historic agreement with Iran to control and monitor Iran's nuclear activities. In exchange for controlling and monitoring Iran's nuclear program, it was decided to lift many sanctions against Iran. The JCPOA caused the sanctions to disappear and provided the ground for the entry of target countries and foreign investors, and finally attracted billions of dollars of money for Iran.3.MethodologyThe method of collecting sources in this article is library and descriptive analytical method is used to review and analyze the materials.4. Results & DiscussionIran's strategy based on expansion-oriented and conservation-oriented from the perspective of deterrence Foreign policy, if it is based on specific and achievable goals, a calculated plan and roadmap, is in accordance with the national and environmental capabilities and requirements, and is finally adjusted and implemented based on a precise and appropriate strategy, it will naturally be fruitful. . A quick review of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran during the last four decades reveals the existence of two main views in the national environment and its organizational environment. The expansion-oriented perspective, which in a word is the security-oriented approach, and the growth-oriented perspective, which is, in a word, the development-oriented approach. Examples and measures of interest in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran The most important issues on which the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran was focused are categorized at the international level. In addition, the topics that have been placed at this level have been involved in the most changes and ups and downs, we can mention things such as sanctions, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), missile defense capability and human rights; which are expected to be among the main foreign policy agendas of the Islamic Republic of Iran.5.Conclusions & SuggestionsThe volume of economic exchanges with neighboring countries was increasing rapidly, so that according to statistics, the export of Iranian goods to 15 neighboring countries from the beginning of September to the end of February 1400 was more than 44,529,185 tons worth 15 billion and 67 million. And it became 244 thousand 625 dollars, which recorded a growth of 44% in weight and 48% in value. As a result of the policy of attention and cooperation with neighboring countries, Iran's trade (exports and imports) with its neighbors reached more than 100 million tons of goods and the value reached 51 billion dollars, while the total volume of trade between Iran and European countries did not reach one billion dollars. Also, the Islamic Republic of Iran increased its support for the resistance axis. Iran is no longer interested in revitalizing the JCPOA, although negotiations continue without reaching an agreement between Iran and the other members of the 4+1. Iran's foreign policy has become aggressive again and has changed its direction from the perspective of the West towards the East and the neighboring countries and the axis of resistance. As mentioned, Iran must be able to implement a single consensus among its allies to achieve its goals in foreign policy. .
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