روسیه و افغانستان پس از ظهور طالبان (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
خروج ناگهانی نیروهای غربی از افغانستان و ظهور مجدد طالبان در این کشور، منجر به ایجاد صحنه جدیدی در عرصه سیاست افغانستان و تغییر جایگاه بازیگران داخلی وخارجی دخیل در این کشور گردید؛این تحولات و رخ دادهادر افغانستان، به چالش جدی برای روسیه تبدیل گردید.عقب نشینی ناگهانی نیروهای غربی باقیمانده از افغانستان و تصاحب قدرت توسط طالبان، منجر به کاهش خشونت جنگی در سراسر کشور گردید،اما به شدت میزان عدم اطمینان کلی را افزایش داد.از اینرو روسیه درصدد آمد با در نظر گرفتن اهداف منطقه ای و بین المللی به این بحران واکنش نشان دهد.این نوشتار با هدف شناسایی علل تجدید نظر در سیاست خارجی روسیه نسبت به تحولات افغانستان با توجه به ظهور مجدد طالبان ایجاد شده است.بنابراین سوال اصلی مطرح می شود، علل تجدید نظر در سیاست خارجی روسیه نسبت به تحولات افغانستان با توجه به ظهور طالبان در این کشور چیست؟برای رسیدن به پاسخ این سؤال، از روش پژوهش توصیفی – تحلیلی و با استفاده از ابزار گردآوری کتابخانه ای و سایت های اینترنتی استفاده شده است.همچنین نگارندگان این فرضیه را مورد بررسی قرارخواهند داد،افغانستان در موقعیت استراتژیک روسیه اهمیت زیادی داردو بی ثباتی پایدار در افغانستان پس از خروج نیروهای آمریکایی می تواند، یک تهدید امنیتی برای روسیه و سایر اعضای CIS ایجاد کند.یافته های مقاله نشان می دهد روسیه با اتخاذ رویکرد تاکتیکی و با هدف مدیریت و دفع تهدید در سیاست خارجی خود با افغانستان پرداخته است.اکنون روسیه درصدد است با رویکرد تهاجمی خود به عنوان یک قدرت جهانی وارد پروسه صلح در افغانستان شودوازاین طریق بتواند سیاست خود را برافغانستان تحمیل کند.Russia and Afghanistan after the rise of the Taliban
The sudden withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan and the reappearance of theTaliban in this country led to the creation of a new scene in the field of Afghan politics and the change of the position of internal and external actors involved in thiscountry;These developments andevents in Afghanistanbecame aserious challenge for Russia.The sudden withdrawal of the remainingWestern forces from Afghanistan and the seizure of power by the Taliban led to a decrease in fighting violence across the country,but greatly increased the overall level of uncertainty.Therefore, Russia tried toreact to thiscrisis byconsidering regional and international goals.This article is created with the aim of identifying the reasons for revision in the foreign policy of Russia regarding the developments in Afghanistan due to the re-emergence of theTaliban.Therefore, the main question is raised, what are the reasons for revising Russia's foreign policy regarding the developments in Afghanistan due to the emergence of theTaliban in this country?To find the answer to this question, the descriptive-analytical research method has been used,using library collection tools and internet sites.Also,the authors will examine this hypothesis,Afghanistan isof great importancein thestrategicposition of Russia,andstable instabilityin Afghanistan after the withdrawal of American forces can create a security threat forRussia and otherCIS members.The findings of the article show that Russia has dealt with Afghanistan by adopting a tactical approach with the aim of managing and repelling threatsin itsforeign policy.NowRussia is trying toenter the peace processinAfghanistan with its aggressive approach as a world power and in this way it can impose its policy on Afghanistan.
Introduction
Afghanistan has always played an important role in Russia's foreign policy and national security doctrines. Although Afghanistan is not considered one of Russia's neighbors and does not have a border with Russia, but according to the Russians, it is a country that, on the one hand, is a source of terrorism, extremism, and drug exports, and on the other hand, borders with areas close to Russia is considered as Central Asia. Therefore, Kremlin officials have mainly sought to reduce and weaken the threatening waves of Afghanistan. In other words, Russia's view of Afghanistan is defined by its view of Central Asia, which has considered this region as its backyard for decades and is sensitive to any destructive actions and the spread of insecurity and instability to this region, which was once a part of Russia. With the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, it provoked various reactions from Moscow, which has a long-term security experience in this country. Russia was able to make the most visible immediate response by adopting a strategic anti-US strategy. Therefore, by participating in multinational diplomatic dialogues and at the same time taking the opportunity to call for increased Eurasian strategic coordination through non-Western venues such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). ) and the triangle of Russia, India and China (RIC) to ensure its interests and security. Russia's strategy is to maintain as much stability as possible in Afghanistan while promoting its official position as a security provider in Central Asia. In this regard, the Kremlin will take advantage of its initial interaction with the Taliban and create a pragmatic approach for the Taliban government and quickly adapt to the new realities in Afghanistan with policies that are pragmatic and pursue its main interests, security in Afghanistan and strengthening regional influence. itself, especially in Tajikistan, it is clear that it adapts. Russia's adaptation to Afghanistan's new political order reflects the impact of more than a decade of covert and public diplomacy with the Taliban.
2.Theoretical Framework
According to the theorists of aggressive realism, the goal of all revisionist governments is to reach a hegemonic position in the international system.Therefore, this group of governments is strongly seeking to gain power and if the conditions are right, they want to change the distribution of power in their favor.Therefore, the great powers are interested in hegemony in their region and at the same time, they prevent the alignment and hegemony of other great powers in their respective regions.Of course, this does not mean that governments are unquestioningly subject to the process of international developments, but rather their aggressive behavior in foreign policy and their actions are based on backgrounding capabilities on the functioning of other units and even changes in power equations.It is effective.If the weaker states in the international system find an opportunity to change the balance of power in their favor, they will never miss it. According to the theory of realism, countries that face real and permanent threats have a revisionist nature and behave aggressively.Therefore, the main goal and motivation of countries is to maximize power and security. They try to maximize their influence and relative power.In the conditions of time and place where the benefits of power maximization are more than its cost, countries do it at the cost of reducing the security of others.Due to the ambition of hegemony, Afghanistan has been managed in the last several decades with an extrapolated order resulting from the intervention of great powers.The non-compliance of this order with the realities of the region has been one of the important factors of instability and an important obstacle to establishing a stable domestic order.interfere and not allow other regional powers to enter. Therefore, when a great power uses force or the threat of force against anyone, it must consider strategies to maintain its power and continue it until a decisive victory is achieved.
Methodology
In this study, descriptive-analytical method and within the framework of offensive realism to express the variables of the research, "Taliban gaining power in Afghanistan" as an independent variable and "expanding cooperation between Russia and the Taliban with the aim of filling the void of American presence in Afghanistan" and "controlling religious extremism in Central Asia" is assumed as the dependent variable.
Results & Discussion
Russia sees various threats from Afghanistan, the most important of which is considered to be against the interests and security of the Russian Federation. Russia always feels threatened by the Islamic State in Afghanistan, and with the expansion of ISIS in Moscow, it expresses concern about the spread of this group to the northern regions of Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Russia. The issue of drugs is another threat to Russia. river Afghanistan is a supplier of drugs to the world, most of which are produced in areas controlled by the Taliban. Most of these drugs are smuggled to Russia and every year a large number of Russian people die from its use. Russia has also had a realistic view on the issue of Afghanistan, and Afghanistan is and expresses increasing concern about the prospects of stability in this country after the withdrawal of American forces. The findings of the article show that Russia has dealt with Afghanistan by adopting a tactical approach with the aim of managing and repelling threats in its foreign policy. Now Russia is trying to enter the peace process in Afghanistan with its aggressive approach as a world power and in this way it can impose its policy on Afghanistan. Considering that the Afghan government cannot accept this approach and from Afghanistan's point of view, Moscow should adopt the approach of the Afghan government and people based on the will of the people and Afghanistan in the peace process. In this regard, Russia is trying to maintain its geopolitical goals by maintaining its security approach and at the same time expand its influence in the region with its efforts and policy design, and by doing this, it can form a more diverse approach at the national level. so that in this way he can consolidate his sovereignty and maintain his international position.
Conclusions & Suggestions
In fact, Russia's policy in Afghanistan is walking on a tightrope with the reactivation of the Taliban, because Moscow's scope of action is limited. It prefers the Taliban to consolidate power, because it considers this group as a potential guarantor of stability in Afghanistan. This can be understood from the movements and rhetoric of Russian diplomacy regarding the Taliban and other third parties. However, at the same time, Moscow cannot become a direct supporter of the Taliban. There are important caveats regarding recognizing this group as the Afghan government or directly supporting this group. Doing so runs counter to Moscow's reputation as a fighter against international terrorism and risks alienating some of its Central Asian allies. However, Russia's agenda in Afghanistan differs from that of the Taliban, meaning that engagement with the Taliban is preferable but not necessary to achieve its goals in the country. In fact, Moscow is not interested in this group itself, but in the Taliban for the security guarantees they can provide.
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