روش شناسی آینده پژوهی دولت: ارزیابی تناسب روش تحلیل علّی لایه بندی شده (CLA) برای آینده پژوهی دولت (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
تحلیل علّی لایه بندی شده یک رویکرد آینده پژوهی است که در آن، وضعیت و آینده های احتمالی پدیده ها در چهار لایه رویدادی (لیتانی)، ساختاری، گفتمانی و استعاری مورد مطالعه قرار می گیرد. مفروضه مقاله این است که مهمترین شرط پژوهش های علمی تناسب روش شناسی با هستی شناسی است. به عبارت دیگر روش منتخب باید با ویژگی های موضوع پژوهش تناظر و تناسب داشته باشد. مقاله به این سوال پرداخت که آیا روش تحلیل علی لایه بندی شده برای آینده پژوهی دولت مناسب است؟ مقاله براساس آثار مبدع این روش (سهیل عنایت الله) به صورتبندی این روش و کاربرد ها و دستاوردهای آن پرداخته است؛ سپس به ویژگی های هستی شناختی دولت، به ویژه در شکل های امروزین آن اشاره کرده و سرانجام با استفاده از روش قیاسی تناسب این را برای برای مطالعه دولت مورد بحث قرار داده و به این نتیجه رسیده که این روش به دلیل تناظری که با سرشت پیچیده و چندلایه دولت دارد بیش از هر روش دیگری برای آینده پژوهی دولت مناسب است. با استفاده از این رویکرد می توان کارکردهای روزمره (لایه لیتانی)، ترتیبات نهادی (لایه ساختاری)، مبانی مشروعیت (لایه گفتمانی) و بنیان های اسطوره ای (لایه استعاری) دولت را مورد بررسی و تحلیل قراردا و آینده های احتمالی آن را شناسائی کرد. البته چون این روش بیشتر بر سویه های تحلیلی متمرکز است و سویه های هنجاری و تجویزی چندانی ندارد برای آینده پژوهی دولت نیازمند تکمیل است. استفاده همزمان از دیگر روش های آینده پژوهی نظیر سناریو سازی، تحلیل تأثیر بر روند، تحلیل الگوها و تحلیل چرخه های آینده می تواند به تکمیل و بهینه سازی این روش در آینده پژوهی دولت کمک کند.A Methodology for State Studies: Assessing the Appropriateness of Causal Layered Analysis for Futures Studies of the State
IntroductionThe state, as one of the most sophisticated social phenomena, has been a central focus of philosophers and scholars for centuries. From ancient times to the present, philosophical reflections and empirical research have produced an extensive and rich body of literature on the nature, typology, structures, functions, and evolution of the state. Despite numerous forward-looking studies—whether examining the state as a general form of social organization or in its various manifestations across different societies and countries—it remains a vital area of inquiry that has consistently been on the research agenda. However, the related studies have largely adhered to conventional scientific approaches, such as positivism and interpretivism. While these methods have yielded valuable insights, they are often doomed to have been heavily influenced by ideological tendencies or theoretical preferences, leading to results that are not always accurate and desirable. As a different line of inquiry, the present research aimed to assess the appropriateness of causal layered analysis (CLA) for future studies of the state, hoping to capture its complex dimensions, characteristics, and transformations. As an effective analytical method, CLA has gained popularity in the Iranian scholarly community in recent years. However, the related studies sometimes display misunderstandings and oversimplifications in both the introduction and application of the method. In some cases, the ontological and methodological distinctions between the four layers of CLA are not properly considered, and the method is neither accurately presented nor applied. There are also instances where CLA is mentioned only in the title, while other methods are used in the body of the research. To address these shortcomings, the present study aimed to introduce CLA, highlight its distinct features and capabilities compared to other approaches in future studies and demonstrate its suitability for future studies of the state. The main research question is, how suitable is CLA for future studies of the state? The study also sought to address three sub-questions as follows: What are the components and techniques of CLA? How does CLA differ from other methods in future studies? And what capacities does CLA offer for future studies of the state?Materials and MethodsAs a descriptive inquiry, the current study intended to provide a detailed explanation of CLA, while also exploring the general characteristics of contemporary states. Additionally, it examined the appropriateness of applying CLA to futures studies of the state. The data was collected from scientific documents, including books and articles, and analyzed through an inferential approach.Results and DiscussionCLA was proposed to address the inadequacies of both evidential and interpretive approaches. It is based on the premise that human and social phenomena are highly complex, requiring at least four layers of investigation for a comprehensive understanding. The first layer, known as the litany, consists of the surface-level, everyday aspects of these phenomena, manifested in tangible dimensions and quantitative data. The second layer (the structural or systemic) covers more stable and general factors, including institutions, arrangements, and socioeconomic and political relations. The third is the discourse layer involving dominant worldviews and mentalities. Finally, the fourth layer (myths/metaphors) concerns the unconscious rooted in archetypes and myths. In CLA, each of these layers should be examined using a method appropriate to its nature. The first and second layers, being more objective, require objective data, quantitative methods, and statistical or structural analysis. In contrast, the third and fourth layers, which are more subjective, require qualitative data, interpretive strategies, and semantic analyses. Addressing all four dimensions and layers simultaneously, CLA has a great capacity for understanding both the current status and the objective and subjective factors influencing states' future, whether in general or within specific societies. The method offers a key advantage by encouraging researchers to move beyond one macro narrative to several different narratives, leading to a deeper and more reliable understanding of complex, multi-layered phenomena like political systems and states.ConclusionThe application of CLA can offer valuable insights into the state's direction, trends, and prospects. However, this method primarily addresses broad prospective studies and lacks specific techniques and tools for depicting accurate scenarios of possible, probable, and preferable futures. To address this gap, it is essential to use complementary methods such as retrospection, morphology, and trend research, in conjunction with future thinking techniques like driver analysis, visioning, and scenario building.
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