تحلیل اثر توسعه گردشگری بر قیمت مسکن در ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
گردشگری به عنوان یک صنعت کاربر به بهبود اقتصاد در زمینه اشتغال در مقاصد گردشگری، توسعه زیرساخت ها، حفظ منابع مالی و احیای اماکن گردشگری تاریخی و جدید و درک بهتر مردم جهان از یکدیگر کمک می کند. مجموعه عوامل مذکور می تواند به رشد اقتصادی بالاتر کشورهای میزبان منجر شود و به افزایش سرمایه گذاری در سایر بخش های اقتصادی بیانجامد. یکی از بخش های متأثر از افزایش رشد اقتصادی، بخش مسکن است. هدف از مقاله حاضر، تحلیل اثر توسعه گردشگری خارجی بر قیمت مسکن در ایران طی دوره زمانی فصل اول 1391 تا فصل اول 1400 می باشد. به این منظور، تعداد گردشگران خارجی ورودی به کشور به عنوان شاخصی برای توسعه گردشگری و متغیرهای قیمت دلار، جمعیت، تعداد بزرگراه های تحت حوزه استحفاظی وزارت راه و شهرسازی و تعداد پروانه های ساختمانی صادرشده به عنوان متغیرهای کنترل در نظر گرفته شدند و روش خودتوضیحی با وقفه های توزیعی برای برآورد به کار برده شد. نتایج حاصل از برآورد نشان داد که تعداد گردشگران خارجی بر قیمت مسکن در ایران طی دوره زمانی مورد مطالعه اثر منفی داشته است. قیمت دلار، جمعیت و تعداد بزرگراه های تحت حوزه استحفاظی وزارت راه و شهرسازی بر قیمت مسکن اثر مثبت و تعداد پروانه های ساختمانی صادرشده بر قیمت مسکن اثر منفی داشته اند.Analysis of the Effect of Tourism Development on Housing Prices in Iran
As a Labor-intensive industry, tourism helps to improve the economy through employment in tourist destinations, infrastructure development, maintaining financial resources, revitalizing historical and new tourist places, and better understanding of the world's people from each other. The mentioned factors can lead to higher economic growth of the host countries and increase investment in other economic sectors. The housing sector is one of the sectors affected by increased economic growth. Thus, this article aims to analyze the effect of foreign tourism development on housing prices in Iran from the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2021. For this purpose, the number of foreign tourists entering the country as an indicator for the development of tourism and the variables of dollar price, population, the number of highways under the protection of the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, and the number of issued building permits were considered as control variables. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used for estimation. The estimation results showed that the number of foreign tourists negatively affected Iran’s housing prices during the studied period. Dollar price, population, and the number of highways under the protection of the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development positively affect housing prices, and the number of building permits issued hurts housing prices.IntroductionTourism is an industry with social, cultural, and economic dimensions that affect countries’ economic development. If properly planned and managed, this industry can increase production and economic growth, improve society’s standard of living and welfare, and employ production factors. Despite its political conflicts and economic sanctions, international visitors are drawn to Iran because of its four distinct seasons, ancient and historical landmarks, ethnic groups, and diverse cultures and customs. Iran’s economy is currently confronted with a scarcity of foreign exchange resources, on the one hand, attributable to its reliance on crude exports and the singular nature of its product, and on the other, the imposition of foreign sanctions and the pronounced risk associated with investing in the country. Tourism development is one factor that can contribute to currency earnings and mitigate issues resulting from currency deficiency. However, apart from its critical role in ensuring shelter, the housing sector assumes a heightened significance owing to the inefficiency of financial markets in Iran and the substantial return that can be obtained from housing investments.For this reason, to effectively plan and manage the housing sector, it is critical to identify the variables that influence housing prices, such as the growth of the tourism industry. This article’s primary objective is to answer the inquiry regarding the impact of tourism development on housing prices in Iran. In contrast to the majority of studies conducted in the field of the relationship between housing and tourism in Iran, which have frequently examined the impact of tourism on the cost of land or housing in a specific city or village, the current study focuses on the overall influx of tourists into the country. It is evaluated nationally, and its impact on housing prices is assessed at the macro level. An additional innovation of the article is the analysis of short-term and long-term relationships, which can result in more precise policy recommendations for distinct periods. Literature ReviewRecent socioeconomic changes, including the accumulation of wealth, an increase in permanent income, a rise in the value of leisure time, and an increase in the number of retirees with disposable income and time, have increased the demand for housing intended for recreation, according to Biagi et al. (2015). Moreover, notwithstanding the tax advantages, the demand for housing intended for recreational and vacation purposes has been augmented by the emergence of the global real estate market, which facilitates the process of acquiring housing abroad. Additionally, many international visitors travel to invest in the local real estate market; thus, some of these tourists may contribute to increased real estate demand. Cró, S., & Martins (2023), in research titled “Does tourism activity influence the dynamics of housing prices? Evidence for countries dependent on tourism,” examining the effects of tourism over the period 2000-2018 using the vector error correction model (VECM), analyzed housing prices in eight countries that are significant in the tourism industry. Results indicated that tourism development has a positive and statistically significant impact on housing prices over the short- and long-term. Methodology In order to examine the impact of foreign tourism growth on housing prices in Iran, the present study employs the model proposed by Kariş & Altintaş (2021): (1)The dependent variable in Equation 1 is denoted as and represents the housing price per square meter in thousand Rials. The primary independent variable of foreign tourism development is denoted as . Additional independent variables consist of the subsequent: is dollar price, is population as the quantity of people, is the number of building permits issued for construction, and is the number of highways protected by the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development. The present study’s analysis uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method.ResultsOne can estimate the model and interpret the outcomes by considering diagnostic test results’ long-term and short-term desirability. Table 1 displays the outcomes of Model estimation conducted using the ARDL method over the short- and long-term. Based on the data presented in the table, it is evident that housing prices in Iran experienced a decline from 2012Q2 to 2021Q2. The growth of international tourism has been correlated with a decrease in housing costs. Dollar price, population size, and the number of highways protected by the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development positively affect housing prices, and the number of building permits issues hurt housing prices. On the other hand, the error correction coefficient is equal to -0.157. It is significant at the 95% confidence level, which indicates the adjustment of approximately 16% of short-term disequilibrium towards the long-term trend.
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