جایگاه اقیانوس هند در رقابت های راهبردی هند-چین (2022 -2013) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
در حالیکه دول نوظهور آسیاییْ در حال تغییر توزیع بین المللی قدرت با کسب منابع مادی میباشند، پویش های درون آسیایی تحت تاثیر خیزش سریع هند و چین در دوران چرخش قدرت بین المللی به سمت آسیا قرار گرفته است. این دو قدرت در ترسیم افق های آتی، کنشگری در پهنه های آبی بین المللی را مؤلفه ضروری برای قدرت یابی جهانی تلقی میکنند. طی دهه اخیر اقیانوس هند، عرصه نوظهور در آبهای آزاد، به کانون رقابت این دو دولت برای کسب قدرت بزرگی تبدیل شده است. اما آثار موجود در این حوزه تصویر جامعی از رقابت های هند و چین در اقیانوس هند ارائه نکرده است. مقاله حاضر با استفاده از روش تحلیل داده به بررسی مناسبات دریایی دو دولت تحت تاثیر حضور فزاینده چین در اقیانوس هند پرداخته است. فرضیه مقاله در پاسخ به این سوال که حضور چین در اقیانوس هند چه آثاری بر مناسبات دریایی هند و چین ایجاد کرده؟ بر این مبنا قرار دارد که نقش آفرینی گسترده چین در اقیانوس هند، دور جدیدی از رقابت های راهبردی را میان دو کشور پدید آورده است. در این خصوص استدلال می شود، هند در برابر اجرایی ساختن استراتژی های پیشرو دریایی، شبکه تجارت و سرمایه گذاری، مدرنیزاسیون نیروی دریایی و توسعه بنادر و پایگاه های دریایی چین در اقیانوس هند، از طریق افزایش توانمندی دریایی، تعمیق مناسبات با کشورهای حاشیه ای و جزیره ای اقیانوس هند و مشارکت راهبردی با رقبای چین در چارچوب چشم انداز دریایی ایندو-پاسفیک در راستای برقراری موازنه علیه چین گام برداشته است.The Indian Ocean in India-China Strategic Competitions (2013-2022)
While the Asian emerging countries are changing the international distribution of power by acquisition of material resources, Intra-Asian dynamics have been affected by the rapid rise of India and China during the shift of international power towards Asia. In drawing the future horizons, these two powers consider international water areas as a necessary component for gaining global power. During the last decade, the Indian Ocean, as an emerging field in international open seas, has become the center of competition between these two countries. However, the existing works have not provided a comprehensive picture of India and China competition in the Indian Ocean. This article, using data analysis method, examines the maritime relations between the two states under the influence of the mounting China appearance in the Indian Ocean. To answer the question of what are the effects of China's emergence in the Indian Ocean on India-China maritime relations? This article claims that China's increased role in the Indian Ocean has created a new round of strategic competition between the two states. In this regard, it argues that India in response to Chinese implementation of advanced maritime strategies, trade and investment network, modernization of the military force, and development of ports and naval bases in the Indian Ocean, through increasing maritime capabilities, deepening relations with the marginal and island countries of the Indian Ocean, and forging strategic partnership with China's competitors in the framework of the Indo-Pacific maritime landscape, take balancing measures against China. Extended abstract 1- INTRODUCTION Given the power shift towards Asia in recent era, Intra-Asian dynamics are pivoted towards the simultaneous rise of India and China aspiring to acquire some of the most important material resources of power. During the last decade, India and China consider that playing an effective role in the Indian Ocean, one of the emerging areas of international waters, is an essential factor of gaining the status of global power. However, the existing works have not provided a comprehensive picture of India and China competition in the Indian Ocean. This article, using data analysis method, examines the maritime relations between the two states under the influence of the mounting China appearance in the Indian Ocean. To answer the question of what are the effects of China's emergence in the Indian Ocean on India-China maritime relations? This article claims that China's increased role in the Indian Ocean has created a new round of strategic competition between the two states. In this regard, it argues that India in response to Chinese implementation of advanced maritime strategies, trade and investment network, modernization of the military force, and development of ports and naval bases in the Indian Ocean, has taken balancing measures against China by increasing maritime capabilities, deepening relations with the marginal and island countries of the Indian Ocean, and forging a strategic partnership with China's competitors in the framework of the Indo-Pacific maritime landscape. 2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Supremacy and dependency in the international system is directly related to the dominance of open waters by only a handful of superpowers. According to Walter Raleigh’s[1], “dominating world trade through command the sea”, Alfred Mahan’s[2] “the transformation of nations into great powers through influence of the sea”; and Barry Posen's “overarching dominance of the United States through the exercise of global power over the sea”, sea plays an important role in the empowerment of political units. Historically, European primacy in the colonial period, the Soviet Union and the United States competition during the Cold War, and the United States’ comprehensive power in the international system have been made possible by the superiority in the open seas. The theoretical framework of "water and the empowerment of great powers" is a useful theory for explaining the strategic relations between India and China in the Indian Ocean. 3- METHODOLOGY Data analysis includes methods of obtaining results through the processing of data. "Analysis" means breaking the whole into separate parts in order to understand its main characteristics, and "Data" refers to a set of values based on the interaction of "Data item", "Data unit" and “Data observations”, appears in numerical and descriptive form. In this method, relations of the variables are carried out in the five steps: defining question, collecting data, removing irrelevant data, analyzing data and visualizing results. Data analysis is used to examine the data related to China-India maritime competition in the Indian Ocean. 4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION The Indian Ocean is one of the most important epicenters of China and India competition in the open seas. About 67% of energy import, more than 90% foreign trade, and threats from extra-regional powers (the United States), regional powers (India), failed states, piracy, and terrorism have turned the Indian Ocean into a strategic area for China. Therefore, China through the “advanced maritime strategies” in the economic (Belt-Road) and military fields (“management of the seas and oceans”), military spending and marine modernization, forming a chain network of military and logistic ports, improving relations with the coastal and island countries of the Indian Ocean in the framework of the economic packages of “Silk Road Economic Belt” and “Maritime Silk Road of the 21st Century”, has played an active role in the Indian Ocean. In return, the Indian Ocean has an inherent value for India in terms of strategic depth expanding, superior power reconstructing, an economic gateway and a cultural bridge to neighboring countries. China's permanent and complete access to the Indian Ocean and India's strategic containment is India's main concern and driver to increase its competitiveness and balance against China. In this regard, India increased naval spending and capabilities, strengthened the command of naval forces in the Indian Ocean (Coco, Andaman and Nicobar Islands), established a coastal radar chain in the Indian Ocean, expanded naval bases in the countries with strategic positions to confront China (the diamond necklace strategy), sent its ships in China's strategic backyard, deepened relations with the marginal and island countries of the Indian Ocean, and participated strategically with the United States, Australia and Japan as China's competitors in the framework of Indo-Pacific approach (India-Japan-United States, India-Japan-Australia-United States, India-Japan-Australia). 5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS China and India after centuries of lagging behind European and American countries, have taken a high rise in the direction of becoming an international power. In this regard, they are clearly seeking to achieve supremacy in Asia by dominating the international waters of the Indian Ocean. The importance of examining India-China maritime behavior originates from the fact that their naval competition in the Indian Ocean has strategic effects on the redistribution of power in Asia and then the future regulation of the international system. The findings of this article, while emphasizing the deep and inevitable effects of the mentioned maritime competitions on the India-China current political equations in the Asian continent, provide the basis for presenting a detailed analysis, identifying threats and enumerating its opportunities. This issue requires further future studies based on a scholarly and scrutinizing approach.
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