درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

Context/purpose: Factors affecting the technology, and innovation levels of crude oil treatment’s surface facilities, are numerous and extensive. Localization of surface facility as a high-tech Technology, which include oil and gas production and processing units, has always been one of the main issues, and technology management and innovation are essential priorities for these facilities. The purpose of this practical, heuristic, and quantitative research is to develop the studies and identify the current state of technology for crude oil treatment’s surface facility technology level in Iran and compare it with its global one. Methodology: Considering the wide range of factors that are used in evaluating technological and innovative capabilities with uncertainty. This research is applied in terms of purpose. Using a survey method and collecting qualitative data through a questionnaire, has led to descriptive results. This study by referring to experts and specialists, these factors according to their importance and priority in different classes of classification and then with statistical analysis, the relationship and correlation of these factors have been examined. For this purpose, 44 experts in oil and gas industry have been used for replying the qualitative questionnaire, then the fuzzy system model has been used to investigate the uncertainty in their answers and Quantitative results. Findings: The results of this study show that the most influential factors in surface facilities such as technological and innovative factors and managerial potential and human resources, etc. are not at an acceptable level compared to developed countries. Conclusion: The analysis of uncertainty between opinions of experts and factors investigated also confirms that attention to innovation and technology capacity and Technology capability and human resources in the National Iranian Oil Company should be increased.

Iran is one of the most important oil and gas producing countries in the world with 153.8 billion barrels of crude oil and 33.5 billion cubic meters of gas has 9.3% and 18% share of total oil and gas reservoirs, respectively. Rich hydrocarbon reservoirs along with a special geographical location are of the most important competitive advantages of Iran. The oil value chain has a special place in the social, economic structure and level of development of Iran. In policy-making, especially in global equations and in the long run, where uncertainty is an integral part it is necessary to pay attention to this area. As a strategic knowledge, futures studies can play an important role in mapping the future. In current study, the possible and plausible futures of Iran's fossil energies (oil and gas) in the 2035 horizon are presented in the form of four scenarios. In an environment where variables are dynamic and constantly changing and uncertainty is high, using scenario building methods is preferable for long-term horizons. In this study, 30 drivers with high uncertainty and impact on the future of Iranian oil and gas were produced. Using the cross impact analysis model and the balanced impact model, out of 41,472 possible scenarios, 10 scenarios with maximum compatibility were obtained, that presented in four scenarios namely: clean scenario (low carbon), a bipolar Middle East scenario, a cooperation and development scenario, and finally a postponed dream scenario.