تحلیل پیامدهای اقتصادی و اجتماعی خشکسالی های اخیر بر کشاورزی مناطق روستایی (مطالعه موردی: روستاهای دهستان اسماعیلی سفلی شهرستان جیرفت) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
خشک سالی یکی از بلایای طبیعی است که خسارات زیادی بر زندگی انسان و اکوسیستم های طبیعی وارد می آورد. منطقه ی جیرفت به دلیل موقعیت جغرافیایی ویژه ای که دارد، همواره با این پدیده مواجه بوده و ارکان اقتصادی و اجتماعی روستاهای منطقه، تحت تأثیر این پدیده قرار گرفته است. این پژوهش با هدف "تحلیل آثار اقتصادی و اجتماعی خشک سالی بر کشاورزی مناطق روستایی شهرستان جیرفت" و به صورت توصیفی تحلیلی انجام شده و گردآوری اطلاعات به صورت پیمایشی می باشد. جهت انجام این مطالعه، ضمن بهره گیری از یک چارچوب مفهومی، از طریق تکمیل 217 پرسشنامه، داده ها جمع آوری گردیده و با استفاده از نرم افزار SPSS مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفتند. سال 1386 به عنوان سال پایه ی خشک سالی درنظر گرفته شد و به بررسی آثار خشک سالی در سال های 1384 و 1388 (دو سال قبل و دو سال بعد از خشک سالی) بر وضعیت اشتغال، درآمد، سطح زیرکشت در بخش کشاورزی و نیز مهاجرت خانوارهای روستایی پرداخته شد. نتایج حاصل از تحقیق نشان داد در اثر خشک سالی های 3 دهه ی اخیر حجم آب های زیرزمینی، سطح زیرکشت محصولات زراعی و باغی در سطح بالایی آسیب دیده است. هم چنین نتایج نشان داد در منطقه ی مورد مطالعه تأثیر خشک سالی بر خروج دائمی نیروی کار از بخش کشاورزی و مهاجرت روستایی بسیار اندک بوده و تغییر در اشتغال بعد از خشک سالی به صورت موقتی بوده است. هم چنین نتایج تحلیل همبستگی نشان می دهد که بین تأثیر خشک سالی و میزان درآمد و پس انداز، رابطه ی معنی دار و مثبت وجود دارد. درآمد خانوارها از بخش کشاورزی کاهش قابل توجهی یافته و میزان سرمایه گذاری در بخش کشاورزی نیز کاهش یافته است، در این نوشتار ضمن تحلیل اثرات خشک سالی بر ساختار اقتصادی و اجتماعی راهکارهایی جهت مقابله با خشک سالی ارائه گردیده است.Economic and social consequences of the recent droughts On agriculture, rural areas (Case study: Esmaeli villages, Jiroft Township)
Introduction
Considering geographical status of Iran & its location in the dry climatic zone in the world and shortage of rainfalls, we should claim that as studies on drought phenomenon in Iran show, the outbreak of water & drought crisis are typical characteristics of this country. Although occurrence of such crisis are not often involved for the country in general, none of the areas in the country were safe from this phenomenon & according to their natural position, experience the effects of this wrecker phenomenon (Ghayoor, 1998:28) Jiroft is not an exception here, so that given the low rainfall during recent years, it has been categorized among cities facing with drought. The extent of drought effects in some rural areas of Jiroft has been so much that has had remarkable effect on the decline of agricultural products & yearly economical income of villages. In this regard & because of the same geographical characteristics in rural areas of Jiroft, the effect of drought on agriculture of Esmaili Sofla village has been surveyed randomly. Although it's an important issue, unfortunately no comprehensive study has been done about the effect of drought &its consequences on rural areas of Jiroft & so this can reduce the effectiveness of plans against drought & lead them to the problems. So given the urgency & importance of the matter, the present study has been done with the purpose of analyzing drought effect on villages of Esmaili rural district of Jiroft environs.
Materials and Methods
The general approach of research and quantitative research methods of data collection based on the library data - documents and field surveys. First, to identify indicators of socio - economic consequences of the drought and its related indicators with special emphasis on rural areas of expertise related studies was used. Accordingly, The 23 indicators of economic and social consequences of the drought were identified, And the design of the questionnaire as a research tool in the field studies. To increase the validity of the method or technique, formal and content validity were used, In this regard, the validity of the study was to verify the number of experts in specialized fields. The Cornbrash’s alpha technique was used to measure the reliability of 0.757 was obtained, indicating the reliability of the tool of research. According to Cochran formula, 217 households in the village Esmaili questionnaire was distributed to a random stratified sampling. In order to analyze the data collected from field studies of statistical tests were applied.
Discussion and Results
So the key point in perception of drought is understanding its environmental economical & social dimensions. So in the present research it is tried to survey the effect of drought of 1386 on both economical & social dimensions. At first in order to evaluate the economical & social effects of drought before & after 1386 according to the Likert, Wilcoxon test was used to measure the items. Statistical analysis of difference between before & after drought with respect to sample society from Wilcoxon rating test, suggests significant difference among items before & after drought & alpha is less than 0/05. As table 4 indicates in all items this gap is obvious so that Negative ratings are much more than positive ones. In terms of economical dimension most obvious gap is among indicators of reduced performance in horticultural crops and also drought leads to reduction in current & fixed assets of rural households. In addition, with respect to social dimension after drought, confidence in villagers has declined & also smuggling among residents has increased. On the other hand conflicts between residents & farmers during drought than before that have had remarkable rise. In order to examine the relation among impacts of drought on income of farmers, area under cultivation, employment in agriculture & investment in agriculture it is used from descriptive table of Summers, compatibility table of Kendall tai eBay & correlation coefficient tests of Kendall tai c. The results are separately mentioned.
Conclusions
One of the most important effects in the village under study is economical effect that has led to the reduction in area under cultivation and current investment and income. According to the findings of the analysis there is a positive meaningful relation between drought effect & level of income & investment. So that shares of incomes lower than 900thousands RLS have increased after drought. From among 217 samples under study (i.e. 68/70 percent of total participant) that have evaluated the effect of drought on reduction of agricultural income in a ‘very much’ level, number of 118 people (i.e. 68 percent of total samples), have rated the effect of drought in an ‘average’ level. One of the other effects of drought is on the area under cultivation, & that results from analysis showed that most of the villagers are active in a cultivation level of 0/5 to 1 Hectare, before & after drought. But share of lands have reduced to 1/5 hectare & large farm have been restricted because of drought effect & lack of water. One of the other important effects of drought is its social dimension. One of the factors of social dimension is migration. In general results of the present study show that after drought there hasn’t been much tendency to migration in household & this can because of temporary job changes after drought, so that 60/37 percent of households have changed their job temporarily & 42/86 percent of them have started up service affairs that most of them were busy with agriculture before drought.
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