ارزیابی نیمه کمّی خطرپذیری خشکسالی با استفاده از مدل \"مدیریت ریسک\" مطالعه ی موردی: دهستان دولت آباد شهرستان جیرفت (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
خشکسالی به عنوان یک واقعیت بحرانی، در نوع خود پدیده ای پیچیده و دارای ابعاد مختلف می باشد و با وقوع در مناطق روستایی، زمینه ی بروز چالش های زیست محیطی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی و روان شناختی را فراهم می آورد؛ بر این اساس اتخاذ رویکرد سیستمی و همه جانبه نگر، جهت کاهش آسیب پذیری روستاییان در برابر پیامدهای خشکسالی با تأکید بر مدل مدیریت ریسک، ضروری به نظر می رسد. در تحقیق حاضر، به ارزیابی نیمه کمّی خطرپذیری خشکسالی با استفاده از مدل مدیریت ریسک پرداخته شده است. تحقیق حاضر، از نوع کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت و روش، به صورت توصیفی- تحلیلی بوده و برای گردآوری داده ها از روش گردآوری اطّلاعات به صورت کتابخانه ای و میدانی استفاده شده است. ارزیابی نیمه کمّی خطرپذیری خشکسالی در دهستان دولت آباد، توسط 30 نفر از کارشناسان و افراد صاحب نظر در اداره ی کل منابع طبیعی شهرستان جیرفت، سازمان جهاد کشاورزی منطقه ی جیرفت و کهنوج و هم چنین مسئولان روستاهای نمونه به صورت اظهارنظر آزاد صورت گرفته است؛ بدین ترتیب که ابتدا لیست خطرات و پیامدهای خشکسالی در محدوده ی مورد مطالعه استخراج و سپس تمامی این خطرات و پیامدها، ضریب دهی و اولویت بندی و در نهایت نتایج اطّلاعات به صورت نمودار رادار نشان داده شده است . نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد که بالا رفتن نرخ بیکاری و از بین رفتن فرصت های شغلی و خروج از بخش کشاورزی به عنوان خطرات اصلی خشکسالی در منطقه می باشد؛ بنابراین فرآیند مدیریت ریسک، این امکان را فراهم می سازد تا اولویت بندی اقدامات، درست در جایی که بیش ترین نیاز به اجرای آن وجود دارد، انجام پذیرد.Semi-quantitative risk assessment of drought risk management model Case study: Village Dolatabad city of Jirofrt
Introduction Drought as one of the most dangerous natural disaster, a wide range of climates and ecosystems, impact and threat to households and communities that depend for livelihood is agriculture. The consequences of the drought could lead to instability rural livelihoods. Dolatabad district in the central city of Jiroft in Kerman province, including rural areas, the incidence of consecutive droughts in recent decades, major losses for farmers and livestock of the villagers living in it are often brought. while the management and how to deal with this phenomenon as whether from the authorities and the villagers themselves and principles when faced with the mainly for Traditional reaction. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of drought in Dolatabad village using risk management and sought to answer this question is the most important risks and consequences of drought in the eyes of officials and villagers have what? Materials and Methods The present investigation has a descriptive- analytical nature. Data as library and field. Semi-quantitative risk assessment of drought in the area studied by 30 experts and experts in the Department of Natural Resources and Agricultural Jihad Organization of Jiroft and Jiroft city Kahnooj and officials (Dhyaryha and members of the Islamic Council) sample villages (Dolatabad, Aliabad, abasabad and Saghari) as canvassed, was done. So that the list of risks and consequences of drought in the area studied was extracted, then all of the risks and consequences of the index and prioritization, and ultimately results data are shown in a radar chart. Discussion and Results The results of the research suggests that total unemployment and loss of job opportunities and out of the agricultural sector the the highest priority of experts and those in power and officials in the villages of your sample is assigned to the case study and the incidence of mental and emotional disorders and increased migration to the cities raising the level of in the diagram curve final prioritizing risks of droughts have (according to the consequences) and In a nutshell increase the risk of drough. Conclusions Jiroft township with regard to the climatic conditions and features of the hydrological and meteorological, witnessed a drought in several times. In the rural areas did not escape the phenomenon of drought have had a high potential vulnerability to it, so in order to reduce the impact of relevant, holistic approach was required to all aspects, including economic, managerial, organizational, institutional, cultural, ecological and include policy and so on. In such a situation a Drought Risk Management or a series of measures that before it is carried out by the drought and in the course of action and surprise to the lowest possible rate observed. Because assessments undertaken in the field of drought, suggests that crisis management actions are reactions to hasty, inadequate and ineffective led. The results showed that the total unemployment and loss of job opportunities and out of the agricultural sector the highest priority of experts and those in power and officials in the villages of your sample is assigned to the case study and the incidence of mental and emotional disorders and increased migration to the cities raising the level of in the diagram curve final prioritizing risks of droughts have (according to the consequences) and In a nutshell increase the risk of drought. Therefore, the priority actions should be based on addressing these issues in the region. The first steps should be to reduce unemployment, to prevent the loss of jobs and made out of agriculture caused by drought, Further in this regard should be the most vulnerable areas of the region are identified and measures to inform and to be more prepared in this area. The results can be combined with the results of the estimate of damage in the region and the measures to be taken in the right place. Due to this that all measures for the entire region is essential, taking advantage of the risk management model can be used makes it possible to build up to prioritize actions, right where the greatest need to run there, and ultimately doing vulnerability reduced drought against the villagers. Keywords: Risk, drought, risk management, the city of Jiroft.
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