چالش های سیاسی-اقتصادی فراروی هژمونی یوان چین در نظام پولی بین المللی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
با توجه به جایگاه در حال ارتقای چین در اقتصاد جهانی، یکی از مهم ترین مسائل نظام پولی بین المللی، دگرگونی در هژمونی دلار و جایگزینی آن با یوان است. رژیم کنونی مبتنی بر دلار ضعف هایی مانند ناکارآمدی سیستم برتون وودز و بحران مالی سال 2007 را نشان داده است. چین به عنوان رقیب اقتصادی قدرتمند ایالات متحده برای ایفای نقش بین المللی نیازمند نفوذ و مشارکت در حکمرانی در همه حوزه های بین المللی به ویژه نظام پولی بین المللی است. این پژوهش با مفروض قرار دادن تلاش چین برای ایجاد هژمونی یوان، ارائه پاسخ به این پرسش را مدنظر دارد که چه چالش هایی فراروی آن هژمونی وجود دارد؟ بر همین اساس این نوشتار با استفاده از روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و بهره گیری از داده ها و آمارهای اقتصادی و همچنین با تمرکز بر رهیافت های سه گانه تحلیلی رژیم های بین المللی، معتقد است که چالش های موضوعی گوناگونی فراروی تغییر در رژیم پولی بین المللی از منظر رئالیستی، نئولیبرالی و شناختی قرار دارد. یافته های این پژوهش نشان می دهند که بر اساس منطق رئالیستی دو چالش تداوم هژمونی کنونی ایالات متحده و بحران های امنیتی داخلی و خارجی چین، منطبق با رویکرد نئولیبرالی، چالش هایی مانند ضعف در مشارکت در حکمرانی جهانی، قدرت زیاد دلار در بازارهای بین المللی، عدم وجود نهاد های توسعه ای در شرق و سیستم اقتصادی نئومرکانتلیستی چین و در نهایت منطبق بر رویکرد شناخت گرایی، چالش های حقوق بشری، نگرش جهانی منفی نسبت به کمونیسم و زیربنای فرهنگی کنفوسیوسی آسیب زا به بین المللی شدن اقتصاد چین، به عنوان چالش های مهم در برابر هژمونی یوان برای دگرگونی در رژیم کنونی پولی بین المللی وجود دارند.Political-Economic Challenges to Yuan Hegemony in the International Monetary System
Regarding China's rising position in the world economy, one of the most important issues of the international monetary system is the transformation of the dollar hegemony and its replacement with the Yuan. As a powerful economic rival of the United States, China needs to influence and rule in all international spheres, especially the international monetary system, to create its superpower condition. Assuming China's effort to establish the Yuan hegemony, this research aims to provide an answer to the question of what challenges are there to that hegemony? Hence, this article, using the descriptive-analytical method and economic data and statistics, as well as focusing on the three analytical approaches of international regimes, believes that there are various thematic challenges facing the change in the international monetary regime from a realist, neoliberal and cognitive point of view. The findings showed that in accordance with the realism approach, the two challenges of the hegemony of the United States and China's internal and external security crises, also in accordance with the neoliberalism approach, challenges such as weakness in participation in global governance, power of the dollar in the international markets, the absence of development institutions in the East, and the economic system of China based on the neo-mercantilism and finally based on the cognitivist approach, the challenges of human rights, the negative views of communism at the global level and the harmful effect of Confucian cultural to China's economy are important challenges against the Yuan hegemony to replace with the hegemony of the dollarIntroductionMonetary hegemony is an economic and political phenomenon that can dominate and influence the functioning of international financial monetary systems. As a result of international monetary hegemony, the national currency of a country becomes an international currency, which ultimately increases the interests of a country. The decrease in the strength of the dollar in the world markets has led to the importance of other international currencies. One of the potential international currencies competing with the dollar is the Chinese yuan. In the first years of the new millennium, China's economy ranks first in terms of the world's gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity. In addition, China has the potential to be a great power in terms of a set of factors such as a large population, high economic growth rate and permanent membership in the UN Security Council. In fact, it can be said that the growth of China's economy has caused the country's currency to change from a local currency to a global currency. Considering the importance of the monetary hegemony debate, it seems that there are a set of political and economic challenges on the way to the realization of the hegemony of the yuan, which is the subject of this study. Considering China's growing power in the world economy and the inevitable spread of this power to the promotion of its national currency and its use at the global level, the current article describes the desire and movement of the yuan towards playing a role in the path of a powerful international currency and gaining a hegemonic position for it. Therefore, the current study seeks to analyze the challenges facing the hegemony of the yuan in the international monetary system. Theoretical Framework The international financial regime, like other regimes, has characteristics and structures that can be analyzed based on the analytical schools of the regimes. In the study of regimes, there are three analytical schools: realism, neoliberalism, and cognitivism. Realists focus on power relations, neoliberals base their analyses on interests, and cognitivists emphasize the dynamics of knowledge, communication, and identities. Methodology To answer the main question, this article uses the descriptive-analytical method of data analysis and economic statistics. It also tries to evaluate the hypothesis by focusing on three analytical approaches of international regimes. Results and Discussion Considering China's rising position in the global economy, the yuan has emerged as a serious competitor for the dollar, and it is necessary to analyze and investigate the possibility of hegemonic transformations at the international monetary level in the future. From the perspective of explanatory approaches of international regimes such as realism, neoliberalism and cognitivism, there are major challenges against the hegemony of the Yuan. According to realism, the two challenges of the hegemony of the United States and the internal and external security crises of China are considered key challenges. While many people are talking about the decline of hegemony and the role of this country, relying on the recent actions of America in reducing its security and political commitments in some regions such as the Middle East, the evidence shows that despite the internal problems in this country, Washington still has the largest number of military bases in the world, And influence in many international institutions and extensive relations with many countries have not left its international role. In this regard, the country's perceived alternative in the international arena, i.e. China, is facing numerous political and security challenges. From the type of political system to the border challenges and the international pressures of America, there are important obstacles to the role of China and then its national currency in the field of global political economy. Based on the neoliberal logic, challenges such as weakness in participation in global governance, the high power of the dollar in international markets, the absence of development institutions in the East as a weakness in structural strength, China's neo-mercantilist economic system and international consequences There are reasons for creating yuan for China's foreign trade, which cannot be easily overlooked because of their contribution to the strengthening of the yuan, and finally, by the cognitivist approach, human rights challenges, negative global attitudes towards communist and socialist systems, and the Confucian cultural infrastructure. There is a reason for the internationalization of the Chinese economy against the hegemony of the yuan. Conclusion The results of this research show that the role of the United States in producing these challenges for the hegemony of the Yuan is central. To maintain the value and strength of the dollar, the United States will make every effort to challenge the yuan; Such as by expanding its political-economic relationship with Taiwan, hindering the expansion of China's participation in international institutions and even spreading negative propaganda against China in Hollywood films and international media, especially in the field of human rights, that country has caused special challenges that disturb China's focus on the issue of internationalization and the hegemony of the yuan. Although it can be said that China, with its communist-confucian political and economic culture, has inherently opposed the culture of liberal democracy, and the aggressive reactions of the United States are justified; Therefore, this performance of the United States, although it will be done against any currency that wants to challenge the power of the dollar, but it will be stronger against China as the cultural-political counterpoint of the United States than what it wants to do against the Euro. On the other hand, considering these challenges and their future, other points can be raised. First, although the hegemony of the yuan is the subject of many discussions, the sustainability of the hegemony of the yuan in the case of achieving its goal is another matter. the sustainability of the hegemony of the yuan in case of achieving its goal is another matter. If the hegemony of the yuan is realized in the international monetary system, the supporters of the current hegemony will try to prevent it from continuing. Even the opponents who now exist for the current hegemony of the dollar and the projected hegemony of the yuan will try to challenge both hegemonies. One of these opponents is the European Union. Second, maybe the Western group has come to the conclusion that the transformation of the international financial regime is possible in the future, but they will prevent one country from becoming hegemonic in the international financial regime and will create a multipolar order. Third, despite declaring an egalitarian approach, China is ultimately forced to behave as a national government in the current order, and therefore it is not far from the expectation that it will sacrifice any relationship for its national interests. The lack of strong support for Russia in the recent Russia-Ukraine war and the caution in the military attack on Taiwan and the signing of a long-term agreement with the Arabs by expressing unrelated issues about the three Iranian islands make China an opportunistic and non-committal government in the international system..
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