تعیین شاخص های ایجاد شهر جدید با استفاده از روش AHP و ارزیابی میزان دستیابی به اهداف ایجاد شهرهای جدید، مطالعه موردی: شهر جدید پردیس (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
سیاست ایجاد شهرهای جدید در ایران باهدف مهار رشد بی رویه جمعیت و کنترل مهاجرت به شهرهای بزرگ، از سال1364 تصویب شد. اهداف اصلی ایجاد شهرهای جدید، توزیع متناسب جمعیت در منطقه شهری موردنظر، تمرکززدایی از کلان شهر موردنظر، ارتقاء معیارهای زیستی و خدماتی، جلوگیری از افزایش بی رویه قیمت زمین و مسکن می باشد. در این تحقیق به منظور تعیین شاخص های ایجاد شهر جدید به روش دلفی نظرات افراد خبره و کارشناسان بررسی و گردآوری شد و برای ارزیابی و وزن دهی معیارهای به دست آمده از روش AHP استفاده شده است. برای این کار مقادیر به دست آمده را وارد نرم افزار Expert Choice 11 نموده و نتایج استخراج شد. در ادامه به صورت میدانی نظرات جامعه آماری نسبت به شاخص هایی که بیشترین وزن را داشتند، با ابزار پرسشنامه و مصاحبه بررسی و در نرم افزار SPSS میزان دستیابی به اهداف ایجاد شهرهای جدید بررسی شد. در این تحقیق مشخص شد که اهداف کالبدی در ایجاد شهر جدید بیشترین وزن را نسبت به اهداف اقتصادی و جمعیتی داشته و اهداف اقتصادی در رتبه دوم قرار می گیرد. در واقع با ایجاد زیرساخت های لازم در شهر جدید در اهداف کالبدی زمینه برای ایجاد اهداف اقتصادی مهیا خواهد شد. با توجه به یافته های تحقیق و نظر کارشناسان این امر، درصورتی که اهداف کالبدی و اقتصادی در هر شهر جدید به خوبی ایجاد شود و ساکنین از آن رضایت داشته باشند، اهداف جمعیتی به دنبال آن خواهد آمد و می توان امیدوار بود که اهداف ایجاد شهر جدید حاصل شود. نتایج به دست آمده در این تحقیق نشان می دهد که شهر جدید پردیس تا حدودی توانسته است به اهداف طرح تفصیلی دست پیدا نموده، ولی ناکافی بودن زیرساخت های ایجادشده و عدم تناسب تعداد مشاغل و تعداد خانوار و عدم رونق و پویایی اقتصاد پایه در شهر، سبب ایجاد وابستگی به مشاغل خارج شهر شده و به نظر می رسد نتوانسته است به اهداف افق طرح دست پیدا نماید.Introducing various indicators for the development of new cities using AHP method and evaluating the achievement of goals assigned for new cities - Case study: the new city of Pardis
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Urban managers and designers are looking for ways to solve problems caused by population growth and increasing migration to large cities. Designing new cities on the outskirts of metropolitan areas to accommodate their overflowing population is one of these solutions. However, new cities will face demographic and ecological crises caused by rapid growth and sudden influx of population without purposeful and organized control and proper infrastructure. Developing new cities was first approved in 1985 as a policy to curb the uncontrolled population growth and migration to large cities in Iran. New cities are mainly developed to ensure proportional distribution of population in the desired urban area, decentralization of the metropolis, improvement of living and service standards, and prevention of unreasonable increase in land and housing prices. In accordance with the policies assigned for the development of new cities and serious restrictions on further development of Tehran metropolitan area especially on agricultural lands, and due to the high slope of land in the northern parts of the city, high groundwater level and inadequate soil penetration resistance in the southern parts of the city, the city being earthquake-prone, existing restrictions on the development of infrastructure, facilities, transportation network and water supply, inversion phenomenon and limitations the ecosystem will face with more population, development of 5 new cities in the suburban area of Tehran was approved by authorities.
Materials & Methods
Questionnaire and interview-based survey methods have been used in the present descriptive and analytical study. Data collection was performed using documentary and field study methods. Qualitative research techniques and content analysis tools have been used to select commonly used important research indicators from related literature. Following data collection from relevant organizations and institutions, a binary comparison questionnaire was prepared for each group of criteria. Using the Delphi method, urban planning experts were asked to comment on these tables. To evaluate and weight the obtained criteria, AHP method and Expert Choice 11 were used and the average was calculated in EXCEL. Pardis was selected as the case study to evaluate the opinions of new cities' residents. In survey and field study, tools such as questionnaires, interviews and observations were used to investigate the social and economic status in the new city of Pardis. A questionnaire was prepared based on Likert five-point scoring scale to determine the level of satisfaction in residents of Pardis city and to see whether in practice residents benefit more from the criteria assigned a higher weight by experts. The questionnaire was randomly distributed among 450 people and the results were evaluated in SPSS.
Results & Discussion
Findings indicate that proximity to the capital, acceptable roads, fair weather condition, fewer traffic jams, and lower house prices are among the reasons for satisfaction of Pardis residents. However, previous residents of Tehran expect a living standard similar to living standards in this city so there is still a long road ahead for Pardis city to fulfil its basic plans of offering settlements and employment for at least a population of 200 thousands and obviating the need for daily commutes. Findings indicate that 40% of the employed population commute daily which results in dissatisfaction and an unnecessary increase in household monthly expenses while turning the city into an unproductive dormitory town. Based on what was analyzed theoretically in the present study, as well as our knowledge of the prosperity, dynamism, population, and civilization level of new cities, it seems that a technocratic view based on instrumental rationality in a rent-seeking economy has ultimately led into the present situation in which large-scale urban development projects have been reduced into a series of housing projects. Therefore, various social issues and the problem of identity and dynamism have become a major issue in the urban system of new cities. However, paying attention to vitality and sustainable social development, as well as reviewing and redefining patterns and procedures have made an important turning point and created the required capacity for urban development management and foresight which shall be expanded to reach a useful executive plan and develop its theoretical and practical basis.
Conclusion
Results indicate that the new city of Pardis has achieved objectives of the detailed plan to some extent, but poor infrastructure, lack of sufficient number of employments for the households and lack of economic dynamism have created a city dependent on external employment and thus failing to achieve the utmost goals of the plan.
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