Assessment of mortality risk in Poland due to cold and heat stress and predictions to 2100(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
منبع:
پژوهشهای تغییرات آب و هوایی سال اول زمستان ۱۳۹۹ شماره ۴
67 - 75
حوزههای تخصصی:
Cold and heat stress are environmental factors influencing the state of health of individuals and the wider population. There is a large number of research to document significant increases in mortality and morbidity during cold and heat waves in every climate zone. In spite of the well-documented nature of heat/cold-related health problems, only in few countries local or national authorities have developed any special adaptation strategies for their healthcare systems (HCS), with a view to addressing predicted increases in the frequency and severity of cold- and heat-stress events. Such strategies draw on epidemiological and climatological research. For example in Poland in the years 2012-2015 research project pursued to study regional differentiation in climate-related diseases in Poland, with regional-level predictions for their occurrence through to 2100. The results of the project were applied in a national strategy for adaptation to climate change This paper presents key results of the part of this project dealing with heat- and cold related mortality in various regions of Poland. Overall, in the near future a 4-28% increase in the number of days imposing heat stress is anticipated, and may result in heat-related mortality significantly higher by the last decade of the 21 st century than in the years 1991-2000 (at a level between 137 and 277%).