climate change

Climate change is the main phenomenon that directly affects the world environment, and changes in the environment affect economic sectors differently. The most important impacts of climate change would be on enhancing the average global temperature and the decrease in precipitation. The agricultural sector is the first and most affected sector in the climate change. We examined the impact of temperature and precipitation variables on the agricultural yield for three common products namely fruits, rice and corn in 14 OIC countries including Iran. The share of employment in the agricultural sector as compared to the total employed is a control variable. By estimating the model using the panel data method over the years 1992 and 2015, the results indicate a negative effect of temperature on the agricultural sector. Precipitation has a positive effect and the share of employment in agriculture has a negative effect.

Climate change is one of the most important issues affecting different economic sectors. Although this phenomenon has had a larger effect on the agricultural sector due to the heavy dependence of agriculture on weather conditions as compared to the other economic sectors, other economic sectors such as the industry, mining and service sectors are also influenced by weather changes due to their intra-sector dependence on the agricultural sector. Accordingly, the effect of climate change on the economic growth of Iran was examined in this research using the DynamicComputable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model. Our investigation revealed that the decrease in the precipitation in the twenty-year horizon (2011 to 2030) will reduce consumption in all sectors. Moreover, while production in the agriculture and mining sectors declines, it escalates with a descending trend in the industry and service sectors. Based on our findings, as a result of the decreased investment in the other sectors, investment in the agriculture, industry, and mining sectors decreases, whereas it rises in the service sector. Given the research results and the challenge of climate change facing this country, the Iranian government must devise a master practical plan to adapt to and confront this phenomenon and reduce its adverse effects.

Cold and heat stress are environmental factors influencing the state of health of individuals and the wider population. There is a large number of research to document significant increases in mortality and morbidity during cold and heat waves in every climate zone. In spite of the well-documented nature of heat/cold-related health problems, only in few countries local or national authorities have developed any special adaptation strategies for their healthcare systems (HCS), with a view to addressing predicted increases in the frequency and severity of cold- and heat-stress events. Such strategies draw on epidemiological and climatological research.  For example in Poland in the years 2012-2015 research project pursued to study regional differentiation in climate-related diseases in Poland, with regional-level predictions for their occurrence through to 2100. The results of the project were applied in a national strategy for adaptation to climate change This paper presents key results of the part of this project dealing with heat- and cold related mortality in various regions of Poland. Overall, in the near future a 4-28% increase in the number of days imposing heat stress is anticipated, and may result in heat-related mortality significantly higher by the last decade of the 21 st century than in the years 1991-2000 (at a level between 137 and 277%).

Ian McEwan’s Solar has been the subject of many a debate, mostly due to its controversial representation of climate change’s cause and the solution offered for the global disaster. The paper explores the novel’s judgment over climate change’s fountainhead and the protagonist’s vain project to save the earth. The scope of the study encompasses the narrator’s accounts of the characters and events in the story. In the light of David Harvey’s notion of ‘spatial fix,’ the study, through a close reading of the novel, focuses on the context within which the story unfolds in order to elaborate on the transformation of the earth into a globalized monolithic built environment called ‘the planet’ for the sake of efficiency and free flow of capital and commodities. It also argues that the protagonist’s solar energy generation project is a neo-liberal initiative to replace a less lucrative production mode and tackle the system’s critical spell of overaccumulation, rather than global warming.

Climatic events, especially severe droughts, have played a key role in cultural evolution and the challenge of civilizations. Climate change, which affects the natural resources and, consequently, the health and subsistence system of human societies, can lead to increased violence, migration, war, and the spread of epidemics. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the possible effects of climate on important events of the Sassanid era. Extensive regions of the Near East and Central Asia have been more vulnerable to droughts, which often recurred during cooling periods, due to semi-arid to hyper-arid environmental conditions. From the second half of the fifth century AD with the beginning of the cold event of the early Middle Ages, the occurrence of droughts and cold waves caused famines and epidemics. These tensions seem to have triggered many social and political events in the Sassanid realm and neighboring regions. These conditions in the sixth and seventh centuries AD caused the gradual decline and eventual fall of the Sassanid government due to Arab invasions. Historical and paleoclimate studies show that successive wars with Central Asian invaders in dry periods, and the frequent outbreak of plague associated with falling temperatures, especially following the floods of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in AD 628, were affecting factors in the dynasty’s weakness and collapse. Besides, some civil wars and revolts, such as the Mazdaki movement, can be considered as indirect effects of climate tensions that contributed to the gradual decline of the Sassanid Empire. 

INTRODUCTION: Since Iran is located in the semi-arid belt, it has faced such issues as drought, dust crisis, and intensified migration. The assessment of the effects of climate change includes identifying some key aspects of uncertainties used to estimate its impacts, such as uncertainties in the context of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs): in regional-scale climatology, in statistical or dynamic downscaling methods, and parametric and structural uncertainties in different models. One of the most important sources of uncertainty in climate change is the use of different AOGCMs that produce different outputs for climate variables. METHODS: In this study, to investigate the uncertainty of AOGCM models, the downscaled data of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections dataset obtained from 21 AOGCMs with medium Representative Concentration Pathway4.5 scenario were downloaded from the NASA site for 81 cells in Hamadan Province, Iran. After the validation of the models, they were evaluated against the criteria of the coefficient of determination and model efficiency coefficient in comparison with the data of the Hamedan synoptic station in the statistical period of 1976-2005. To reduce the uncertainty of AOGCMs, the ensemble performance (EP) of models was used in Climate Data Operators software. FINDINGS: It was revealed that MRI-CGCM3, MPI-ESM-LR, BNU-ESM, ACCESS1-0, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and MPI-ESM-MR models had better performance than similar models. It was also found that IPSL-CM5A-LR, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, CESM1-BGC, and GFDL-ESM2M had the lowest correlation between observational and simulation data of mean monthly precipitation. CONCLUSION: According to the results, this method could provide a good estimate in the base period (1976-2005), compared to the data of the Hamedan synoptic station, and was more accurate compared to the single implementation method of each AOGCM model. The results of EP of models in the future period (2020-2049) showed that precipitation will not change considerably in the future and will increase by 0.23 mm. In addition, the average, maximum, and minimum annual temperatures will increase by 1.54°C, 1.7°C, and 1.40°C, respectively.

Trade liberalization of agricultural products and its effect on food prices, because of the importance of food in the household consumption basket, is one of the most important goals of governments for public access to health and food security. The present study investigated the effect of trade liberalization on domestic food prices in Iran. In this context, the single-equation error correction model (SEECM) was applied using the required time series data during 1989-2019. The results show that in the short-term, only increases in global food prices, liquidity, and exchange rates significantly affect domestic food prices. However, domestic food prices show more reaction to exchange rate fluctuations than to world prices. The estimated long-run equilibrium relationship demonstrated that world food prices have a positive and trade liberalization has a negative effect on domestic food prices. In addition, in the long run, the effect of liquidity on the domestic food price of food is more than other factors. The estimated error-correction term indicates that in the long run, if a shock occurs to the domestic food price, the domestic market can adjust it by only 35% annually. Considering the fluctuations of global prices and exchange rates, and their impacts on domestic prices, it is necessary to pay attention to these fluctuations in revising trade policies.

This paper examines some key aspects of the formal and figurative discourse on ‘nature’ as manifested in the philosophical tradition and with reference to contemporary life. Instead of building a straightforward, self-enclosed argument for the sake of argument, it will demonstrate how someone living today may arrive at certain kinds of judgments in the light both of our collective human inheritance, of which Ḥikma is a major element, and a philosophical reasoning that penetrates into areas of life with which philosophy is not directly or primarily concerned but which are of fundamental importance to all human beings. It begins by sketching a picture of the present historical moment, which many specialists consider a historical anomaly precipitated by the abrupt rise to world domination by a single geographical region. A few basic themes relating to ‘nature’, which by tradition has been approached either figurately or formally, will then be discussed. Their upshot is that for man to live ‘naturally’, he cannot reduce his own nature to that of other animals. Every being has its particular nature. Therefore, the concept of nature cannot be considered only unconditionally or as something common to all animals. Finally, this paper poses two basic questions: Why has our necessary—but equally ‘natural’—separation from the nature of other beings been allowed to go as far as it has? Are we so alone in our modern troubles that we must cast off our human inheritance and pretend to reinvent the universe at every turn?

In recent decades, the significance of the issue of climate change has escalated due to its intensified impacts, potentially diminishing or halting economic growth, particularly in developing countries and vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. Climate change may be considered the most important and complex human challenge. Among the economic effects, trade variables have been examined inadequately. Accordingly, the focus of this study is to investigate the impact of climate change on the export and import of agricultural products in Iran over a forty-year horizon, which was carried out using a dynamic input-output model. This study uses scenarios of temperature anomaly to examine the impact of climate change on different sectors of Iran’s economy. The findings indicate that climate change has a significant impact on the growth of both exports and imports of agricultural products. Under normal conditions without climate change, the average annual growth rate of agricultural product imports is 2.7 percent. However, this rate decreases to 1-1.8 percent when different climate change scenarios are taken into account. Regarding the exports, the corresponding value is 2.75 percent, expected to be reduced to 0.55-1.8 percent.  In addition, it was found that agricultural trade will be dominated by cereals import. Also, the total trade of the Iranian economy will change in favor of non-agricultural commodities

The purpose of this research is to investigate the possibility of environmental terrorism due to the impact of the consequences of climate change in Iran. Therefore, an attempt is made to answer the question of whether the consequences of climate change in Iran, while creating security challenges, can create the conditions for conflict over resources that are the background. The analytical -descriptive method and the latest data from Iran's research centers are used too for ans the question about The emergence of environmental terrorism,? To answer this question, the impact of climate change on the watersheds of the country as a pole of agricultural production is investigated first. And it is expected that due to the increase in temperature and frequent droughts and as a result the reduction of food production efficiency in the most important watersheds of Iran, along with the increase of conflicts over natural resources, double pressure on scarce resources and biological facilities as an efficient weapon appear. It can serve the extralegal activities of divergent forces from the central government and lead to the emergence of institutions and groups with radical ideologies or strategies.

A sensitivity analysis of the flood safety of Solaimantangeh dam using a regional climate change simulation is presented. Based on the output of the CCSM (Community Climate Change System Model) general circulation model, the NIRCM (North of Iran Regional Climate Model) computes regional scale output with 50 km spatial resolution and 21 vertical layers. Using the SRES (Special Report Emission Scenario) “B1” Climate Change Scenario when applied to the Tajan river basin, where Solaimantangeh dam is located, NIRCM reduces significantly the bias in Annual Maximum Event total Precipitation (AMEP) & Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation (AMDP) that CCSM shows. The stream flow change scenario is then simulated using SSARR (Stream flow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation) model. A rainfall-runoff model was implemented using precipitation and temperature projected by CCSM and NIRCM. The model demonstrated that average Stream flow would increases 38.7% and the variability would increases 14.3%. This remarkable increase in projected annual maximum flow for the next 20 years (2004-2023) should be a significant negative signal to water resources managers. The results indicate that the number of floods remains almost the same, but that the magnitude of a single flood event and the recovery from it become worse.

Score for exposure factor is the sum of scores for the five criteria of precipitation, temperature, wind, weather phenomena, and horizontal visibility. Hourly data on precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, weather condition codes, and horizontal visibility obtained at 23 synoptic stations in the Province, and from those located in an area within a radius of 100 kilometers from the borders of it, since the time they were established up to the end of 2012, was first received from Iran Meteorological Organization. Those stations were then selected that had data related to eight daily measurements in the interval 1990-2010. Based on this, data processing was carried out for nine stations (five in Kermanshah Province and four in neighboring Provinces) within MATLAB environment. The scores for exposure factors for climate change in two five-year intervals were calculated to assess climate vulnerability of Kermanshah Province. In the next stage, the study period was divided into three intervals: the base interval (from 23, 9, 1990 to 21, 9, 2000), the first interval (from 22, 9, 2000 to 22, 9, 2005), and the second interval (from 23, 9, 2005 to 22, 9, 2010). Following that, exposure criteria and markers were determined. It was then necessary to define and measure a broad range of markers because of the temporal-spatial non-uniformity in the climate of Kermanshah Province that results from land location and variety in this Province. In the present research, climatic data was processed in the framework of five criteria that included 29 markers. In general, it was found that Kermanshah Province is faced with increased hazards resulting from current changes in climate.