علی اکبر تقیلو

Purpose- The purpose of the study is to determine the land use change scenarios in Bash Qaleh dehestan. Design/methodology/approach- Research methodology is based on futures studies and scenario studies. First, a list of drivers using documents 34 domestic and foreign research in the field of land use was prepared and then through the view of villagers and farmers (318) (Using Likert scale) and experts (22) the importance and their impact on land use were studied. For development scenarios, a team of five experts (2 rural planners, 2 regional planners, one natural resource expert) was used. Mick Mac software and Wizard scenario were also used for data analysis. Findings- The results showed that people's income, production level, return on investment in activity, industrial agriculture and agricultural margin were the most effective and uncertain drivers of land use change. For these drivers, eight scenarios were developed and developed. Practical implications- Food security, encouragement of conservation of resources, encouraging policies for population growth, increasing community well-being, droughts, climate change, soil erosion, the emphasis of civil society on the rights of citizens and protection of the rights of the next generation, the emphasis of governments on economic self-sufficiency is only part of the opposite trends which has faced land use challenges. It is suggested that specific programs be developed and monitored to avoid them for any scenario.

Purpose - The ecological crisis of Lake Urmia began in 1995, and its critical state was announced in 2014. Previous studies have demonstrated that farmers and water management in agriculture sector are the main contributors to the crisis. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the role of neoliberalization in water financing, commodification, and privatization programs in reducing the water level of Lake Urmia. Design/methodology/approach - This research is descriptive-analytical in terms of method. The method of data collection is also documentary and field interviews. The documents include the laws of First Plans (1990) to the Fifth (2011) of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Fair Water Distribution Acts (1982), and the Provincial Agricultural, and Water Development Documents. The documentary analysis approach corresponds to the interpretive analysis paradigm of information analysis. Findings - What the represented results and the discussions indicate is that when politics and economics are together (as it always is today), separation becomes a neoliberal trick to restore order and self-preservation, and it causes, “The separation of the elements of water, the exploiter, the private interest from the public interest, and from each other”. In this way, by using fake tricks in the name of development and protection, it uses the environment and water resources to gain legitimacy and capital accumulation and transfers the costs of these conspiracies to the environment and the water source. Original/value- Nevertheless, it seems that the policies of structural adjustment and implementation of programs in different governments have created different "separations" and they have imposed enormous environmental costs on water resources.