تحریم های انرژی اتحادیه اروپا علیه فدراسیون روسیه و تاثیر آن بر نظام تجاری جاری میان دوطرف (2022-2024) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
تهاجم روسیه به اوکراین در فوریه 2022، سبب اعمال مجموعه ای از تحریم ها توسط اتحادیه اروپا و دیگر بازیگرانی که "گروه بندی کشورهای ائتلاف تحریم علیه روسیه" خوانده می شوند، شده است. این تحریم ها دربردارنده جنبه های فردی، مالی و تجاری است. در این میان در مورد تحریم های انرژی اتحادیه اروپا، دو ملاحظه اساسی وجود دارد: نخست، به دلیل سطح بالای وابستگی متقابل میان دو طرف، تأثیر تحریم های اروپایی بسیار زیاد بوده است. دوم، تحریم بخش انرژی با توجه به حساسیت بالای کشورهای اروپایی و تجربه تحریم های 2014 بسیار دور از ذهن به نظر می رسید. باتوجه به این توضیح، هدف این مقاله پاسخ به این پرسش است که: تحریم بخش انرژی روسیه توسط اتحادیه اروپا چگونه بر نظام تجاری دو طرف و به ویژه روسیه، تأثیر راهبردی بر جای گذاشته است. در پاسخ می توان این فرضیه را طرح کرد که، تحریم سه بخش نفت، گاز و زغال سنگ روسیه توسط اتحادیهاروپا، سبب تحول بنیادین در الگوی زنجیره عرضه جهانی، برای هر دو طرف شده است و در نتیجه آن نظام تجاری جدیدی شکل گرفته است. برای آزمون این فرضیه از روش پنج عاملی دیوید پورتر بهره گرفته شده است. تحریم ها نیز با چارچوب مفهومی سیستمی، مورد تحلیل قرار گرفته اند. دستاوردهای پژوهش نشان می دهد که: نخست، تحریم های اروپایی در این بخش در کوتاه مدت و میان مدت کارایی لازم را نداشته است، اما در بلند مدت سبب تحول صنعت انرژی خواهد شد. دوم، تغییر راهبردی تجاری برآیند این تحریم ها در دو محور نیروهای افقی و عمودی به روشنی دیده می شوند.European Union Energy Sanctions against Russian Federation and Its Impact on their Trade System (2022-2024)
Introduction: The European Union's (EU) imposition of sanctions on Russia's oil, gas, and coal sectors following the 2022 Ukraine invasion represents a significant geopolitical and economic event. These sanctions are designed to limit Russia's ability to finance its military actions through energy exports, while simultaneously attempting to safeguard Europe's energy security. Given the pivotal role of energy in both economic stability and geopolitical strategy, the impact of these sanctions warrants a comprehensive analysis. This paper seeks to explore the strategic commercial implications of these sanctions on the global energy market, particularly focusing on Russia and the EU. The central issue addressed in this research is how the EU's sanctions on Russia's oil, gas, and coal sectors have strategically impacted the commercial dynamics between the two parties, with a particular emphasis on Russia. The sanctions aim to curtail Russia's revenue from these critical energy exports, which are crucial for its economy. However, these sanctions also have the potential to disrupt the global energy market, influencing prices, supply routes, and geopolitical alliances.Research question: How have the EU's sanctions on Russia's oil, gas, and coal sectors strategically impacted the commercial System between the two parties, particularly for Russia?Research hypothesis: The EU's sanctions on Russia's oil, gas, and coal sectors have fundamentally transformed the global supply chain patterns for both parties, resulting in the emergence of a new commercial system.Methodology and theoretical framework: This research adopts a qualitative approach to evaluate the impact of the sanctions. The method of research employed include Porter's Five Factors Analysis. This model provides a comprehensive tool to analyze the competitive dynamics within the energy market, focusing on the bargaining power of suppliers and buyers, the threat of new entrants and substitutes, and the intensity of competitive rivalry. Theoretical frameworks employed include Porter's Five Forces and Systems Theory to analyze the competitive and systemic changes in the energy market. This theory views the energy market as a complex system composed of interconnected and interdependent components, including producers, consumers, and regulatory bodies. The imposition of sanctions is seen as a systemic shock that reverberates through the entire market, affecting various elements in multifaceted ways.Results and discussion: The EU's sanctions have significantly curtailed Russian energy exports to Europe, forcing Russia to seek alternative markets, particularly in Asia. This shift has not fully compensated for the loss of the European market, leading to a substantial decrease in Russia's energy revenues. The EU has accelerated efforts to diversify its energy sources, reducing dependence on Russian oil, gas, and coal. This includes increased imports from the United States, the Middle East, and Africa, as well as a push towards renewable energy sources and liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure. The sanctions have contributed to increased volatility in global energy markets, with fluctuations in oil, gas, and coal prices driven by uncertainties in supply and demand. The reconfiguration of supply chains has also introduced logistical challenges and higher transportation costs. Countries like the United States, Qatar, and Norway have seen an increase in their bargaining power as Europe seeks alternative suppliers. These countries have leveraged the situation to negotiate more favorable terms and expand their market presence in Europe. The EU has intensified its investment in renewable energy technologies, viewing the sanctions as an impetus to accelerate the transition to a more sustainable energy system. This includes funding for wind, solar, and hydrogen projects, as well as research into energy storage solutions. The sanctions have induced systemic changes, prompting a reevaluation of energy security and supply chain resilience. The EU's strategic shift towards renewable energy and diversification of suppliers reflects a broader trend towards reducing dependency on single sources and enhancing long-term stability. The sanctions, while strategically significant, have proven inefficient in the short and medium term, as evidenced by ongoing disruptions and market adjustments. The immediate impacts have included supply chain reconfigurations and price volatility, without achieving a complete severance of energy ties or financial incapacitation of Russia. In the long term, however, the sanctions are expected to cause substantial harm to Russia's energy industry. This damage will manifest both vertically (through reduced production capabilities and loss of technological advancements) and horizontally (through diminished market share and geopolitical influence).Conclusion: The EU's sanctions on Russia's oil, gas, and coal sectors have had profound strategic commercial implications for the global energy market. These sanctions have not only diminished Russia's role as a dominant energy supplier to Europe but have also triggered significant shifts in energy sourcing, market dynamics, and strategic investments. The findings underscore the importance of viewing the energy market as a complex system, where changes in one component can lead to widespread ripple effects. This research contributes to the understanding of the commercial impacts of geopolitical actions on the global energy market. It highlights the need for comprehensive strategies to manage energy security and market stability in the face of such disruptions. The study also underscores the potential for accelerated innovation and investment in renewable energy as a strategic response to geopolitical challenges. The implications of this research are far-reaching, suggesting that policymakers and industry leaders must consider both the immediate and long-term effects of sanctions and other geopolitical actions. By adopting a systems perspective and employing frameworks like Porter's Five Forces, stakeholders can better navigate the complexities of the global energy market and develop more resilient and sustainable energy strategies. In summary, the EU's sanctions on Russia's oil, gas, and coal sectors have catalyzed significant changes in the global energy landscape, presenting both challenges and opportunities. The ongoing evolution of this situation will likely continue to shape the commercial dynamics of the energy market for years to come.
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