درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

In this research, the effect of changes in energy prices on output of different sectors by using of regional input output of Hormozgan province is investigated. The AFLQ method is used for regionalization of national I_O table. Three scenarios for the increase in energy prices have been considered. The results showed that except of water, electricity and gas/ sector, the output of other sectors has decreased. In the first scenario, the increase in the output of Water, Electricity and Gas/ sector was equal to 38574.52 million Rials whereas the output of transportation sector had the largest decrease in production. Industry and agriculture sectors are the other sectors that have the largest decrease in output after transportation.Total decrease of regional output in first scenario was 1896633.17 million Rials. As a result of the research, 20% increase in the price of energy carriers, about 0.28% of the total production of the province has decreased. In the second and third scenario total decrement of regional output was 512973.80 and 3048927.86 million Rials, respectively. Decrement of agriculture output in these two scenarios was 362099.15 and 512973.80 million Rials. Considering the importance of the agricultural sector in food production, supporting the production of this sector is necessary using appropriate policies such as guaranteed purchase or decrease of tax rate and technology subsidies in different sectors. These policies can provide the necessary incentives to adjust towards more efficient energy technologies, in order to ultimately reduce the negative effects of the increase in the price of energy.

During the last three decades, financial sanctions have been imposed on Iran by the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations Security Council. This paper aims at estimating the effect of financial sanctions on the import of capital and intermediate goods in Iran, which was carried out for two independent time periods. The first period (2010-2013) includes multilateral financial sanctions, and the second period (2016-2019) includes multilateral sanctions and the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA. We examined the impact using the difference-in-difference (DID) method. The results of the first period indicate that the decrease in the imports of capital and intermediate goods in Iran depends more on the countries that "provided the sanctions plan" than the countries that did not provide the sanctions plan, because the coefficient of dummy variable for implementation in the random effects model is statistically significant. The negative effect of 0.007 on imports shows that the effect is weak, because this group of countries behaved differently. In the second period, the random effects model is statistically significant. In this model, the negetive effect of 0.22 on imports indicates a significant effect. Therefore, the reduction of Iran's imports in this period depends more on the countries that provided the sanctions plan than the countries that did not provide the plan.

Using appropriate policies to overcome food insecurity is one of the pillars of economic prosperity of countries. Economic decisions that change macroeconomic parameters can directly or indirectly affect food production and prices and affect food security. Therefore, achieving a clear understanding of how macroeconomic policies affect different dimensions of food security in the country can lead to providing solutions to improve the food security index. In this study, a framework of simultaneous equations is presented in order to investigate the relationship between monetary and financial policies with food production and prices in the country. In this regard, using the method of generalized moments, behavioral equations were estimated separately using the data of 1978-2018. The model was then implemented as a system of equations using the Gauss Seidel method. Different scenarios were simulated in this model to investigate the effects of changes in interest rates, money volume, and general government investment on various aspects of food security. The results indicated that government investment in the agriculture sector and public investment expenditures have a positive impact on food production through capital stock. Additionally, changes in interest rates have minimal effects on food production but significant negative effects on food prices. Overall, monetary policy decisions result in increased food prices alongside decreased food production due to the demand for money and private investment. Therefore, the implementation of these policies should be done more carefully in order to encourage farmers to increase production and therefore ensure food security for consumers.