حسن حیدری

Risk and uncertainty are inherent characteristics of economic activities. This study aimed to investigate how fluctuations in macroeconomic variables affected the economic growth of Iran, in the period 1989-2021. To this end, fluctuations in macroeconomic variables were measured using EGARCH method, and then Iran’s economic growth equation was estimated based on the Markov Regime-Switching GARCH. The MRS(2)-AR(2) model was estimated. The model estimation results revealed two regimes of prosperity and recession in Iran's economy, the latter was more durable than the former in the studied period. The different effects of OPEC oil price fluctuations in the two regimes, indicating the asymmetric effects of this variable on Iran's economic growth. In other words, the effects of this uncertainty on Iran’s economic growth are smaller during a period of recession than a period of prosperity. The results on real exchange rate fluctuations showed that fluctuations in this variable had similar destructive effects on Iran’s economic growth. The results revealed the positive and negative effects of inflation rate fluctuations on Iran’s economic growth during periods of recession and prosperity, respectively. The IQI coefficient showed the positive effects of this variable on Iran’s economic growth; higher institutional quality increases physical capital and, thereby, economic growth. Based on the model estimation results, it is impossible to propose a single solution to control fluctuations in macroeconomic variables in Iran during different periods. economic policymakers should adopt and implement the best policies considering the periods of recession or prosperity as well as the development priorities.

This paper investigates the responses of Iran’s macroeconomic variables to the oil embargo against Iran. The article applies a Bayesian time-varying parameter SVAR model along the quarterly data of oil export, real exchange rate, inflation, real GDP and money supply of Iran over the period of 1991:Q2-2020:Q2. Applying time varying parameters in this study helps us to consider the economic structural changes and transition mechanism in analyzing the response of macroeconomic variables to oil embargo. The oil embargo against Iran has been intensified since 2012. To consider the effect of the oil embargo on Iranian macro variables, the model has been estimated in two different periods of time, before and after 2012. The results indicate that the escalation of the oil embargo from 2012 has caused a stagflation period and ends in a decline in real GDP and national currency depreciation. In addition, it has intensified money supply and triggers existing inflation. These results have some policy implications to overcome difficulties raises when the economy faces sanction.

This paper attempts to compare a Markov-Switching Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (MS-DSGE) model by including deep habits consumption to a MS-DSGE model without deep habits. It is concluded that the deep habit adjusted model with regime switching is able to fit the Iranian data better. The results of estimating parameters indicate that deep habit formation, together with the persistence of habit stock, are significant parameters. The results also confirm that current and future consumption demand, expected marginal cost and stock of habits are effective driving forces in extracted New Keynesian Philips Curve considering deep habits. However, in contrast with Ravn et al (2006, 2010) findings, it is shown that presence of deep habit consumption in the model for Iranian economy, cannot lead to reduce inflation in response to monetary shock while the amount of increase in inflation in response to monetary shock in the model with deep habit is less than inflation increase in model without deep habits. Furthermore, in response to fiscal shock in the model considering deep habits, the negative effect of wealth could not be compensated in Iranian economy. Therefore, consumption begins to decrease in response to fiscal shock, although these reduction in the model without deep habits takes more longer than in the model with deep habits.

Human identity and sense of self are heavily dependent on the body and its physical attributes. Accordingly, human evaluation of these physical characteristics affects thought, feeling, attitudes, perception and behavior, and bring about a diverse array of consequences. Though research findings have revealed that body image is associated with a number of mental, psychological, and behavioral deficiencies in life, the effect of this construct on variables of marital quality of conflicting couples is rarely investigated. Thus, the current research was an attempt to investigate the relationship between body image disturbance (BID) and two of its related sub-constructs, i.e. perceived partner’s ideal beauty (PPIB) and actual partners rating (APR) with sexual self-esteem (SEE) and quality of marital relationship (QMR). To this aim, 73 conflicting couples were selected through convenience and purpose sampling from a population of subjects referred to a counseling center in the city of Qom. These participants were administered appropriate scales on different variables. The data were collected and analyzed through SPSS. The results of Pearson’s correlation revealed a strong, negative correlation between the BID and the SEE, which was statistically significant (r = -.897, n = 73, p = .000). Also, a multiple regression analysis showed that both PPIB and APR statistically significantly predicted SSE, F (2, 70) = 145.927, p < .0005, R2= 0.807 and QMR, F (2, 70) = 97.758, p < .0005. R2= 0.736. It was concluded that in spite of a meager difference between husbands’ and wives’ views about body image, this variable and the two sub-constructs associated with it correlated with SEE and served as statistically significant predictors of SEE and QMR. These findings have implications for psychologists, psychotherapists, and counselors.