امید صفری

This paper aims to focus on inclusive growth and its impact on multidimensional poverty and inequality in Iran's provinces on the basis of social mobility index. The results suggest, that although the multi-dimensional poverty has decreased, participation of active labor force has a decisive role in inclusive growth and reduction of absolute multi-dimensional poverty of the provinces. But labor participation has been accompanied by inequality of income, which indicates that the opportunity for economic growth has been unevenly distributed, as higher income deciles have more benefits. Income inequality has moderated the positive and significant effect of GDP growth on its inclusiveness. Inflation also has a negative and significant effect on the inclusive growth of the provinces. The research findings indicate that the economic and financial policies, including the ratio of bank credit to GDP and government social expenditures, have a positive and significant effect on the acceleration of inclusive growth and have been able to generate inclusive, albeit unsustainable growth in the provinces. This inclusive growth has led to a reduction in poverty and inequality. However because of its volatility and instability, it has no significant impact on poverty and inequality and did not directly reduce poverty and inequality in the provinces.

Industrial investment in Iran, especially in the wake of sanctions’ intensification in the 2010s, decreased significantly. The government implemented fiscal policy which has been associated with uncertainty. In this paper, using a dynamic panel model and generalized method of moments, we examined the effect of fiscal policy uncertainty on investment in 24 industrial groups in Iran over the period 2002-2020. The results indicated that the growth of fiscal level shock,resulted in a low but positive effect on investment directly. However,the coefficient of cross effect between the growth of fiscal level shock and the fiscal policy uncertainty undermined the positive effect on industrial investment. The government has had two effects on industrial investment indirectly through the demand side shock. By creating demand, it has had a positive effect on industrial investment with the cross effect between the growth of the fiscal level shock and industrial sales. However, on the other hand, the growth of the fiscal level shock has been associated with the creation and growth of fiscal policy uncertainty, so that the cross effect between the growth of fiscal policy uncertainty and the growth of industrial sales on industrial investment shows a high negative coefficient. The results of these two effects suggest that due to high uncertainty,the indirect government effect on investment in 24 industrial groups is negative, which happens through the demand-side shock. Moreover, the growth of fiscal policy uncertainty, sanctions, and interest rates, respectively, have had the most adverse effect on investment in 24 industrial groups in Iran.