سیاست خاورمیانه ای روسیه و نظم امنیتی منطقه ای (2018-2011) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
اهمیت ژئوپلیتیک و ژئواستراتژیک خاورمیانه سبب شده است، این منطقه از جایگاه ویژه ای در تفکر راهبردی روسیه برخوردار باشد. بررسی نظری و عملی رهیافت نخبگان و سیاستمداران روسیه در دوره پسافروپاشی شوروی، تأیید کننده تمایل جدی برای بازگرداندن روسیه به جایگاه قدرت بزرگ است. پویش ها و بحران های منطقه ای می تواند بستر مناسبی را برای تحقق چنین هدفی به وجود آورند. در این میان، آغاز تحولات بهار عربی در پایان سال 2010 و پدیدارشدن نشانه های گذار در نظم امنیتی منطقه ای و بین المللی، شرایط مناسبی را برای ورود مسکو به معادلات قدرت خاورمیانه فراهم کرده است. بر این اساس، جلوه هایی از دگرگونی در رویکرد روسیه به نظم امنیتی منطقه خاورمیانه پدیدار شده است. پرسش اصلی این نوشتار این است که: سیاست خاورمیانه ای روسیه در دوره پسا انقلاب های عربی، از چه ویژگی هایی برخوردار بوده و چه پیامدهایی را متوجه نظم امنیتی منطقه ای می کند؟ یافته های پژوهش با بهره گیری از روش تحلیل روند، نمایان گر آن است که رویکرد روسیه در برابر نظام امنیتی خاورمیانه پس از انقلاب های عربی بر اساس نشانه ها، از تأثیرگذاری همزمان دو بال امنیتی و اقتصادی در کنار هم سازمان دهی شده که بر اساس آن عامل موازنه قوا در کنار منافع اقتصادی، انگیزه های توسعه روابط روسیه با خاورمیانه را تشکیل می دهند. گردآوری داده ها و اطلاعات نیز با استفاده از منابع کتابخانه ای و اینترنتی انجام گرفته است .Russia’s Middle East Policy and Regional Security Order (2011-2018)
Introduction: The revolutionary uprisings that have occurred in many geopolitical territories of the Middle East and North Africa since December 2010 have highlighted signs of change in the Middle East security system. The continued presence and influence of the United States in the Middle East and the follow-up of the European Union from American policies, the increase in the role of other trans-regional actors, especially rebuilding the role of Russia and strengthening China's soft balance, the escalation of geopolitical competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the increase in power and influence of non-state actors have played a central role in changing the balance of regional powers and the emergence of a new regional order. In the meantime, the intensification of manipulation by the United States and the west in the process of Arab Spring developments, along with the appearance of the failure of Moscow’s follow-up policy in the crises of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, convinced the Kremlin officials to adopt a relatively independent and proactive approach to the security order of the Middle East by entering the regional crisis management process.Research question: What are the characteristics of Russia's Middle East policy in the period after the Arab Spring and what consequences does such an approach have for the security order of the region?Research hypothesis: The hypothesis of the above-mentioned question is that Russia's approach to the security system of the Middle East after the Arab Spring is based on signs of the simultaneous influence of two security and economic factions that are organized together, the balance of power factor along with the economic interests constitute the motivations for the development of Russia's relations with the Middle East.Methodology and theoretical framework: The method used in this research is the method of Trend analysis and the type of the research is basic. The nature of this paper is also qualitative. The data collection has been library method, using internet resources, articles and documents. Since the security order of the Middle East has always been influenced by the arrangement, competitions and interactions of regional actors and the interventions of extra-regional powers, in this article, an attempt will be made to use the theoretical assumptions of Neo-realism to explain Russia's Middle East policy and its effects on the regional system. The Neo-realism model provides the possibility of examining the components of the country's external environment with more emphasis to explain Russia's security strategy.Results and discussion: The abilities and capabilities of the country's leaders to play a role in a region and the possibility of accepting valid commitments are important determining factors for countries' strategies in regional systems, which in turn affect the type of regional system. The developments and the involvement of a wide range of regional and international actors in the Syrian crisis have convinced the Kremlin officials to use the direct balancing model with the United States. Based on this, Moscow was able to significantly improve its field of activity by using two strategies of soft balancing and direct balancing, while recovering its structural strength in the Middle East order. By strengthening its relations with Iran, Syria, and even Hamas, and being close to the traditional allies of the United States in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Egypt, Russia is trying to balance regional powers with the United States in the Middle East. Overall, Russia’s reemergence has transformed the Middle East security system in terms of structure, norms, agency, and patterns of interaction. Moscow intends to propose a new approach to the United States unilateral approach to the Middle East regional order, in which a diverse range of actors and agendas can be proposed. Adopting a middle position on regional issues and programs and avoiding a holistic approach to Middle East actors is organized and implemented with this central goal in Moscow's strategic doctrine.Conclusion: The economic factor along with the balance of power is one of the main motivations for the development of Russia's relations with the Middle East. The economic variables influencing Moscow's intervention in the Syrian crisis in the aftermath of the crisis and instability and the transformation of political and military achievements into economic achievements have also been particularly prominent. Russian companies have won many concessions in the field of Syrian oil, gas, electricity and mining infrastructure. Russia's arms trade is also organized through arms deals with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Libya and Syria. The scope of Russia's activity and role in the new regional order of the Middle East includes a wide range of governments and regional actors.
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