مؤلفه های پایش مناقشه و همکاری در حوضه های آبریز فرامرزی و پیاده سازی آن در حوضه آبریز دجله و فرات (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
پایش همکاری و تعارضات در حوضه های فرامرزی جهت مدیریت پایدار منابع آبی مشترک و امنیت منطقه ای ضروری می باشد. بخصوص اینکه تغییراقلیم، توسعه طرح های آبی و عدم توازن قدرت بین کشورهای ساحلی بستر را برای تشدید مناقشات در این حوضه ها مهیاتر نموده است. واقعیتی که پایش پویای وضعیت مناقشات و همکاری را ضرورت می بخشد. مقاله حاضر تلاش دارد تا روش شناسی را بدین منظور ارائه دهد و برای تشریح آن، حوضه فرامرزی دجله و فرات به عنوان منطقه مطالعاتی درنظر گرفته شده است. بدین منظور، مؤلفه هایی برای توسعه چنین سامانه هایی احصاء شدند که مهم ترین آنها عبارت بودند از: الف) درک صحیح از مسائل حوضه و محرک های داخلی و خارجی مؤثر بر مناقشه و همکاری، ب) پایش طرح های توسعه و تبعات آنها بر موافقت نامه ها و یا مغایرت آنها با کنوانسیون های بین المللی، ج) پایش رسانه و گفتمان مسئولین کشورها و د) پایش نحوه فعالیت کمیته های فنی مشترک و بعضاً فراتر از آن، «شوراهای عالی همکاری راهبردی» بین کشورها. در نهایت، نمایش مجموعه اطلاعات فوق با استفاده از ابزارهای استانداردی مانند مقیاس های BAR و iBAR یا ماتریس TWINS. قطعاً عملیاتی شدن این سامانه ها یک کار میان رشته ای است که نیازمند تعامل متخصصان مختلف مانند حوزه های روابط بین الملل، مهندسی منابع آب و علوم سیاسی می باشد.Conflict and Cooperation Monitoring Components in the Transboundary Basins and Implementation in the Euphrates and Tigris Basin
Introduction
Transboundary river basins (TRB) play a pivotal role in supplying water resources of the respected riparian countries. However, these resources are under pressure due to climate change and unilateral developing projects. Additionally, power imbalance and the foreign policy of riparian countries are also serious drivers to exacerbate the aforementioned pressure. Unfortunately, these drivers have paved the ground for more conflicts in transboundary basins and make them at risk. To manage these issues; developing a dynamic conflict and corporation monitoring system is an essential tool for sustainable management of the shared water resources and regional security, which constructs objective of this study.
Methodology
To develop such a system, identification of the influential components in the TRB’s conflict and corporation are the most important steps. It also needs to be dynamic due to inherent drivers that shape conflict and corporation. To explore the methodology of this research, the Tigris and Euphrates transboundary basin (TETB) was selected as the case study.
Results and Discussion
The results showed that the most important components for such monitoring system, include: a) deep understanding of transboundary basin issues and the internal and external drivers affecting conflict and cooperation, b) monitoring development plans and their consequences on previous agreements or their contradictions with the international conventions, c) monitoring the media and the discourses of the states' officials regarding the issues of basins and d) monitoring how the joint technical committees, high councils of strategic cooperation and etc. between the states are operational; finally, illustration of the above set of information using standard tools such as the BAR and iBAR scales or the TWINS matrix.
Conclusions
As stated before, the developed methodology for monitoring was described with a focus on the TETB. Based on the specific findings for this basin, these issues should be considered for its monitoring system: a) the basin is influenced by internal drivers, such as changes in power balance, development plans, and population growth as well as external drivers including climate change and the role of third parties. They change the basin issues into a complex, multi-layered, and multi-dimensional status, b) as stated before, it emphasizes on a dynamic/multi-disciplinary data gathering to track climate, hydrological, media, developing plan and political variables at proper spatial and temporal resolutions. For instance, from political point of view; in the 2000s, Turkey's efforts were intensified to join the European Union. During this period, the basin had very corporative environment, but it was not successful. Notably, the Turkey’s policy as well as the pervious corporative situation was changed in the 2010s. Other crises like the Syrian civil war and emergence of non-state group like ISIS worsen the situation, too (Mitchell, 2000). During this period water used as a leverage by Turkey and as a weapon by ISIS, c) data and information availability is one of the main constraints in transboundary basins (Hajihossaini et al., 2016). Although, sharing data and information is primarily addressed in the basin’s bilateral agreements among riparian countries (Kibaroglu and Scheumann, 2013), however it isn’t still operational. Therefore, other sources should be applied like the global climate database. Linking these databases and satellite data to hydrological models like SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) has been considered to obtaining the TETB’s hydrological information, d) monitoring the basin’s water-related development projects (especially Turkey’s GAP mega-project) and their consequences on the water inflows to downstream countries (Syria, Iraq and to some extent Iran due to Hoor-Alazim marches) is a very important component. Likewise, how these projects effect on the previous agreements or international conventions (such as the 1997 convention). These can be evaluated from "environmental justice" as stated by Zeitoun (2013). It is obvious that such assessments need hydrological simulations, where integrated models like SWAT can be helpful, e) media and news construct parts of the basin’s public policy. They can also be sources to monitor "water events", where they are such important to be reflected in media, f) monitoring of how the joint the TETB’s institutions like the Joint Technical Committees (JTC), Strategic Cooperation Councils and High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council (HSCC) are active and their agreements are implemented is another aspect and last not least, g) proper presentation of these information is another factor. Application of hydropolitical scales/models like the BAR, iBAR and TWINS is already applied for the basin. They can properly present show the time series of previous corporation and conflicts and their importance, the trends and possible future directions.
The abovementioned framework as the objective of this study eventually emphasizes on corporation and avoiding conflict as well as realizing the win-win" strategies. It has the required potential to be implemented in other transboundary basins, while considering their specific issues and characteristics.
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