تحلیل ساختاری مدیریت روستایی در چهارچوب حکمرانی خوب در روستاهای شهرستان اردبیل با رویکرد آینده پژوهی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
با توجه به سرعت تغییرات فعلی در دنیا که در حال حاضر با آن مواجه هستیم، رویکرد حکمرانی خوب روستایی می تواند زمینه ایجاد یک سکونتگاه قابل زیست را برای همگان فراهم آورد. هدف از پژوهش حاضر شناسایی پیشران های کلیدی و مؤثر در بهبود وضعیت عملکرد شاخص های حکمرانی خوب در مدیریت روستایی استان اردبیل با استفاده از رویکرد آینده پژوهی است. این پژوهش کاربردی و روش آن ترکیبی است که در آن با استفاده از رویکرد متوالی اکتشافی موضوع بررسی شده است. در فاز اول پژوهش حاضر با استفاده از روش کیفی دلفی و نظرسنجی از کارشناسان مرتبط با موضوع بررسی شده (شامل 28 نفر)، عوامل و متغیرهای دخیل در امر حکمرانی خوب روستایی استخراج و در فاز دوم عوامل پیشران با استفاده از روش برنامه ریزی سناریو و نیز با استفاده از رویکرد وزن دهی و براساس نظر کارشناسان در نرم افزار MicMac مشخص و درنهایت، سناریوهای پیش رو با استفاده از نرم افزار ScenarioWizard بررسی شد. در این پژوهش 12 عامل کلیدی شناسایی شد که باتوجه به شباهت آنها به یکدیگر آن عوامل در 10 عامل ادغام و تعداد 26 وضعیت احتمالی برای عوامل کلیدی در نظر گرفته شد. سناریوهای ارائه شده در نرم افزار Scenario Wizard 902 سناریو بود که از این تعداد 16 سناریو معتبر بود و 3 سناریو سازگاری زیاد داشت. نتایج به دست آمده در این پژوهش ناپایداری سیستم را نشان می دهد که باتوجه به این نتایج بیشترین میزان اثرگذاری مربوط به شاخص شفافیت، عدالت محوری و پاسخگویی است. تأثیر گروه های صاحب نفوذ در تصمیم گیری های مربوط به مدیریت روستایی در هر سه سناریو وضعیت بحرانی ایجاد می کند. درنهایت، نظارت مردمی و مداخله روستاییان در مدیریت روستا نقش اساسی در پیشبرد هدف های حکمرانی خوب روستایی دارد.Structural Analysis of Rural Management in the Framework of Good Governance in the Villages of Ardabil County with a Future Research Approach
Given the rapid pace of change we currently experience, adopting a sound approach to rural governance can lay the foundation for creating sustainable and inclusive communities. This study aimed to identify the key drivers and effective strategies for enhancing the performance of good governance indicators in rural management within Ardabil Province. Applying a future-oriented research approach, the study followed an applied and mixed research method, employing a sequential exploratory approach. In the initial phase, the qualitative Delphi method was used, involving a survey of experts (comprising 28 individuals) associated with the research topic. This phase extracted the factors and variables that contributed to good rural governance. Subsequently, the scenario planning method was applied, utilizing the weight approach in consultation with experts. The software tool of MICMAC was employed to identify the driving factors, while the Scenario Wizard software was used to analyze future scenarios. Initially, 12 key factors were identified, which were later consolidated into 10 factors due to overlap. A total of 26 potential situations were considered for these key factors. The software generated 902 scenarios, of which 16 were deemed valid with 3 scenarios demonstrating high compatibility. The results obtained highlighted the system's instability with the most significant impact attributed to the transparency index, central justice, and accountability. The decision-making influence exerted by influential groups in rural management created a critical situation across all three scenarios, emphasizing the crucial role of public oversight and participation of villagers in advancing the goals of good rural governance.Keywords: Rural Management, Good Governance, Futurology, Ardabil Province. IntroductionRural management plays a crucial role in promoting sustainable rural development by organizing institutions and guiding the rural environment and society. Given the existence of social and economic relationships, establishment of effective management organizations in rural areas is essential. In light of the limited resources, challenges, and issues faced by rural communities, strong and integrated village management becomes even more critical for rural development. Such management should foster creativity, encourage active participation, and promote a comprehensive understanding of development. The concept of good governance first introduced in the field of economics in 1979 now encompasses the principles of exercising power in a manner that facilitates sustainable development. Good rural governance as a human-driven construct empowers rural communities to achieve their development goals through effective management. It involves the responsible regulation of public affairs, compliance with legal and legitimate requirements, and establishment of a government that aligns with both individual and collective social values. To expand the application of good rural governance, it is imperative to organize people and rural communities into civil organizations, forming small social networks that leverage their abilities, talents, and creativity. Such approaches are essential for sustainable rural development, which relies on capacity-building, empowerment, and networking mechanisms, such as institutional capital. Effective rural management necessitates the adoption of new managerial and institutional models and approaches. One such model is good governance, which emphasizes participation, performance, transparency, accountability, responsibility, legality, consensus, efficiency, justice, and effectiveness. Ardabil City not only faces the aforementioned challenges, but also grapples with inadequate conditions in terms of good governance dimensions and criteria, weak development management, lack of effective non-governmental organizations, low levels of public participation in local management, and relatively low indicators. Against the backdrop of the complexities and uncertainties of the present era, this research aimed to identify the key drivers that enhance the performance of good governance indicators in rural management using a future-oriented research approach. Materials & MethodsThis study adopted an applied research design with a mixed method, aligning with the principles of futurology. A sequential exploratory approach was employed to examine the current state of rural management within the framework of good governance, encompassing an analysis of the past and present to inform future projections. In the initial phase, the qualitative Delphi method was utilized, drawing insights from various scholarly sources to finalize the indicators of good governance in rural management. Subsequently, the quantitative method of scenario planning was employed to identify the primary drivers. Both library research and fieldwork were conducted to gather data for this study. A questionnaire served as the data collection tool, incorporating open-ended questions to ascertain the research variables and closed-ended questions to assign weights to the variables for the analysis of key drivers. The target population for this study comprised experts, specialists, and officials in relevant fields, such as geography and rural planning, geography and urban planning, political geography, public administration, organizational management, and sociology. A sample of 28 qualified individuals was selected using non-probability sampling methods in Ardabil Province in 2019. Research FindingsThis study aimed to analyze the most significant determinants and influencing factors in enhancing the state of good rural governance in Ardabil City. The research identified 12 key factors, which were subsequently merged into 10 factors due to their similarity. These factors encompassed influential variables, risk variables, and regulatory variables, all crucial in determining the state of good rural governance. To explore potential future scenarios, 26 different situations were considered for Ardabil City. Among these scenarios, 12 were favorable, 5 were static, and 9 were critical. A questionnaire in the form of a matrix of mutual effects was designed and administered to experts to gauge their perspectives. From this extensive set of potential situations, a total of 51,378 combined scenarios were extracted, covering the entire range of possible future scenarios for good rural governance in Ardabil City. Using Scenario Wizard software, 9,020 scenarios were generated, of which 16 were deemed valid and 3 exhibited a high level of compatibility. Among the three scenarios with high compatibility, the first and second scenarios presented favorable conditions with 9 favorable and 1 critical sub-scenarios. The third scenario, however, depicted critical conditions with 9 critical and 1 static sub-scenarios. From the examination of 32 variables across 8 indicators of participation, accountability, legality, central justice, transparency, collective agreement, efficiency, and effectiveness, the influential and key factors were identified. Among the variables investigated, 12 variables exhibited scores higher than the average and were thus selected as the influential and key factors for improving the state of good rural governance in Ardabil City. Notably, the transparency index, central justice, and accountability were found to exert the greatest impact based on the obtained results. Discussion of Results & ConclusionCurrently, good rural governance stands as a critical approach in the realm of rural management. Given the rapid pace of changes we are currently experiencing, this approach holds the potential to create sustainable and livable settlements for all as evidenced by its indicators. Among the key factors examined, the complete implementation of conflict of interests emerged as the most compatible and influential aspect. This finding underscored the need to strengthen favorable situations and mitigate critical ones to improve the state of good rural governance in Ardabil City. Additionally, the second category highlighted the importance of involving village residents in decision-making and development planning processes. This aspect emerged as a significant factor that could either bolster or weaken good rural governance in Ardabil City. Transparency, in particular, served as a catalyst for the interconnectedness of other key factors and drivers. These elements formed a networked flow where the implementation of one factor impacted the implementation of others, influencing and shaping their outcomes. This category emphasized the crucial nature of transparency in the villages of Ardabil City, necessitating careful consideration and attention.
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