رقابت راهبردی روسیه و آمریکا: ابعاد و پیامدهای بین المللی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
رقابت روسیه و آمریکا در دو دهه گذشته و از زمان روی کارآمدن ولادیمیر پوتین، روند فزاینده ای یافته و از سال 2014 و در پرتو بحران اوکراین به بزرگ ترین مسئله راهبردی جهانی تبدیل شده است. جنگ سال 2022، این رقابت ها را تا حد زیادی بازگشت ناپذیر و چشم انداز صلح و ثبات بین المللی را برای آینده ای طولانی مبهم کرده است. مسئله اصلی این نوشتار، مشکلات برخاسته از روابط موجود آمریکا و روسیه و دشواری های آن برای صلح و امنیت بین المللی است. این پرسش مطرح است که رقابت روسیه با آمریکا در مسائل راهبردی، چه پیامدهای بین المللی مهمی دارد؟ در پاسخ، این فرضیه مطرح می شود که رقابت های روسیه با آمریکا در مسائل راهبردی به هجومی ترشدن سیاست خارجی روسیه تا مرز یک جنگ بزرگ اروپایی و پیگیری یک سیاست شرق گرایانه تر منجر شده است و چنانچه این روند تداوم یابد و ساختارهای باقی مانده از دوران پس از جنگ جهانی دوم و دوران جنگ سرد مانند نظام ملل متحد و نظام کنترل تسلیحات راهبردی یا ثبات راهبردی جهانی نیز از میان برود، جهان با بحرانی بسیار بزرگ و هرج ومرج گسترده روبه رو می شود. رویکرد نظری مورد توجه در اینجا، واقع گرایی راهبردی بر اساس مؤلفه های مطرح شده توماس شیلینگ است و از روش تحلیل کیفی با رویکرد تحلیل محتوای داده ها و تحلیل های موجود بهره می بریم. یافته اصلی این پژوهش این است که رقابت اصلی در روابط مسکو و واشینگتن بر سر مفهوم ثبات راهبردی جهانی مبتنی بر همپایگی راهبردی دوران جنگ سرد در دهه های 1960 تا 1980 است که آمریکایی ها از دهه 1990 آن را منکر شده و به تدریج از زیر بار تعهدهای آن خارج شده اند. روسیه نیز برای حفظ این وضعیت در معرض خطر، به نظامی گری و جنگ روی آورده است.Russia-America Strategic Competition: International Dimensions and Consequences
Introduction: At the beginning of the third decade of the new century, the relations between Russia and the United States have become more hostile than ever. After the Ukraine crisis of 2014, the political process of resuming relations, which was proposed by the so-called “Reset” in 2009, completely ended and the two sides began to face each other on some global issues after two decades. Basically, relations among Russia and the United States play an important role in the world politics. As various analysts claim that Moscow and Washington have emerged as nuclear superpowers, by maintaining a significant influence on the process of international affairs, if they maintain partnership and cooperations, they can make a significant contribution to solving global problems such as fighting terrorism, preventing drug trafficing, cooperation in the field of energy and preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. But these cooperations continued only for a decade and with the Ukraine crisis and Russia's strong criticism of the expansion of NATO in Eastern Europe, it turned into a major global tension. Research Question: What are the important international implications of the strategic competition between Russia and the United States? Research Hypothesis: It has been hypothesized that Russia's competition with the United States in strategic matters has led to the aggressiveness of its foreign policy to the point of war with Europe. If this trend continues and the structures left over from the post-World War II and the Cold War era, such as the United Nations and the strategic arms control system are destroyed, the world will face a very big crisis followed by widespread chaos. Methodology and Theoretical Framework: Our theoretical approach is strategic realism based on the components of Thomas Schilling, which emphasizes the limited and wise use of power to prevent a full-scale nuclear war. In this research, we have used the method of qualitative analysis and explanation with the approach of selective content analysis of data and at the same time the specialized analysis of the subject under discussion has also been taken into consideration. Results and Discussion: It seems that a major part of this strategic competition is due to the idea that from the Kremlin's point of view, the United States and its allies have observed the feeling of insecurity in Russia by exerting pressure on this country in the strategic space. Russia's opposition to the expansion of NATO to Eastern Europe is due to the fact that by changing the military-strategic point of view, this issue not only leads to greater vulnerability of Russia, but also provides the basis for creating new spaces for the influence of western powers. Kremlin leaders are trying to make Russia play a role in important international issues by becoming a great power. Weakening the United States is one of the ways to achieve this goal. Given Moscow's understanding of the growing decline of the liberal world order, Russia wants to fill this void and play a role in it. By not accepting the international system and regional arrangements that were established after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has sought to return to the international system after the end of World War II. As a result, Russia is placed among powers that determine the fate of the world. They compete with each other and mutual respect for interests and spheres of influence is the only factor preventing this competition. Russia does not recognize the idea of a rules-based order promoted by the US and the West, as the West seeks to create rules and impose them on the world community. Conclusion: Examining the contexts, dimensions and consequences of the strategic competition between Russia and the US, shows that Russia's view of the international system is geopolitical, security and realistic, which has made international relations a dangerous and unreliable environment. Although this attitude on the US side is justified with less hardware concepts, in practice it is not much different from Russia and has continued to expand its rival military alliance. Despite such a tense, critical and military atmosphere, both great powers have refused to enter into a big and direct war with each other based on Thomas Schilling's strategic realism, because the strategic wisdom of their elites is well aware of the terrible dimensions of such a war and in the 2022 war in Ukraine, we saw that in order to preserve their existence, the two sides did not enter each other's red lines but the military adventures were drawn into a direct confrontation. But the main issue in the competition between the United States and Russia is the situation of "global strategic stability". This concept means the balance of fear between Moscow and Washington, which is considered the guarantor of global stability and security. Despite many ups and downs, the Russians still emphasize it and in all their strategic documents, including the latest foreign policy planning document published on March 31, 2023, they still consider it the main guarantor of peace and security. It seems that the war in Ukraine has dealt a final blow to this concept and it will be difficult to revive it. The world will enter a more dangerous period after this situation.
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