Drought

Purpose- The irrigated wheat farms of Doroudzan District in Marvdasht County, Fars Province face agricultural water deficit challenges due to mis-management of water resources. This research aims at investigating water conflict strategies among the irrigated wheat farms of Doroudzan Dam Network. Design/methodology/approach- The study was descriptive regarding its nature and used survey research procedure. The statistical population included 803 wheat farmer households residing in Ramjerd 2 and Abarj Dehestans in Doroudzan District. According to Krejcie and Morgan's (1970) sample size table, the samples were 260wheat farmers selected based on simple random sampling technique. Systematic questionnaires were used to collect data by means of face-to-face interviews. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by a panel of experts, and a pilot study was also done to assess the reliability of the questionnaire. The estimated Cronbach's alpha coefficients were between the accepted range (i.e. 0.50 - 0.75) for the different measures used in this study. Findings- Results revealed that the most prevalent conflicts were intra-group conflicts among the counterparts. Verbal conflicts were the current form of water conflicts regarding the conflict intensity in the region. Physical attacks and third party (police) controls were placed in the second and third position. The results of cluster analysis indicated three clusters of farmers; “educated aggressors”, “low-literate aggressors” and “peace-oriented farmers”. All the clusters were statistically different regarding their demographic characteristics (age and education level), farming-system portfolio (area under cultivation, annual income and cost) and water conflict in response to water shortages. According to the contingency table, collaboration strategy was the prominent conflict management strategy among the three groups followed by compromising strategy. Research limitations / implications- The lack of institutional support to get information on conflict attacks among the rural residents and the time-consuming nature of the survey study are the most important challenges in this study. Practical implications-According to the findings, it is of prominent importance to provide the context of problem solving with counterparts. As a result, it needs more attempts to share all the stakeholders’ interests to reach a common decision. It seems that reaching a satisfactory solution needs drawing out different parties’ expectations to help them get organized through collaboration. Originality/value- Numerous studies have been carried out on water deficiencies. However, this study is the first in the context of rural settlement and valued based on the analysis of the conflict management strategies among famer groups that has not been addressed in previous studies.

Purpose- Currently he occurrence of recent droughts in Iran and the severity of its damage indicate the vulnerability of farmers. The economic-environmental damages and the resilience farmers to this incident are evident in diverse ways. Therefore, recognizing the resilience of the population influenced by drought can offer a tool to prevent life-threatening disaster in high-risk areas. The aim of this study was to evaluate the economic resilience of rural households to drought in plain of Kermanshah and answer the following questions. What is the extent of economic resilience of rural households in Mahidasht to drought? What are the most important factors affecting the economic resilience of rural households to drought? Design/methodology/approach- This is an applied research and a descriptive-analytical method along with library analysis and field surveys were adopted for data collection. The statistical population of this study consisted of 5081 households, out of whom 357 samples were selected according to Cochran's formula. Descriptive and inferential statistics (One-sample t-test) and structural equation modeling were used for data analysis. Findings- According to the results of t-test, the variables of vulnerability of villagers' property and assets (mean=3.99) and the impact of drought on the value of assets (mean=3.86) gained the highest average in terms of resilience. On the contrary, the two variables of ability to compensate (mean=1.67) and membership in cooperatives and agricultural companies (mean=1.67) had the lowest averages. Moreover, the test results of all four variables of evaluating farmers’ knowledge and awareness indicate a correlation between the independent variables (prevention, preparedness, reconstruction, institutional management) and the dependent variable (economic resilience). Therefore, it can be contended that the economic resilience of Mahidasht is fairly weak.

Climatic events, especially severe droughts, have played a key role in cultural evolution and the challenge of civilizations. Climate change, which affects the natural resources and, consequently, the health and subsistence system of human societies, can lead to increased violence, migration, war, and the spread of epidemics. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the possible effects of climate on important events of the Sassanid era. Extensive regions of the Near East and Central Asia have been more vulnerable to droughts, which often recurred during cooling periods, due to semi-arid to hyper-arid environmental conditions. From the second half of the fifth century AD with the beginning of the cold event of the early Middle Ages, the occurrence of droughts and cold waves caused famines and epidemics. These tensions seem to have triggered many social and political events in the Sassanid realm and neighboring regions. These conditions in the sixth and seventh centuries AD caused the gradual decline and eventual fall of the Sassanid government due to Arab invasions. Historical and paleoclimate studies show that successive wars with Central Asian invaders in dry periods, and the frequent outbreak of plague associated with falling temperatures, especially following the floods of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in AD 628, were affecting factors in the dynasty’s weakness and collapse. Besides, some civil wars and revolts, such as the Mazdaki movement, can be considered as indirect effects of climate tensions that contributed to the gradual decline of the Sassanid Empire. 

Introduction: Drought is considered as a complex and creeping natural hazard associated with pervasive socio-economic and environmental impacts. Given the water reserves, per capita consumption, and average rainfall, Iran can be regarded as one of the countries facing the risk of lack of physical water resources and therefore proper management of drought in the country is an important issue. The main objective in the present study was to identify the dimensions gaining less attention in the context of executive drought management measures. METHODS: This was an applied-developmental study performed with the field method along with documentary studies. The data collection tool, data collection method, and data analysis method were a researcher-made questionnaire, structured interview, Q methodology using factor analysis, respectively. The statistical population of the study consisted of 12 executives of the Forests, Range, and Watershed Management Organization, Deputy ABFA of ministry of energy, Agricultural Promotion, Training, and Development Organization, and Deputy Minister of Water and Soil of Ministry of Agricultural Jihad active in drought management executive actions in the country. To derive the questionnaire items using the expert opinion, 24 items on drought management performance measures were selected in four technical-structural, socio-economic, managerial, and environmental-climatic aspects and factor interpretation was performed on them. FINDINGS: Based on the factor analysis of the results, the two technical-oriented and management-centered technical-oriented subjective models that both criticized the executive actions in the socio-economic dimension, were specified among the executives of the drought management field. Thus, according to the experts, most problems in the country in the field of drought management were in the socio-economic sector and most of the achievements in the technical-structural dimension. CONCLUSION: The results of the viewpoints of the executive managers indicated that most of them considered health promotion in drought crisis as one of the achievements of the executive measures in this field in the country which can be used as a strength in future planning.

Iran attempts to expand the non-oil exportsfor diminishing the dependency on oil export income. This research tries to examine the export and trade balance of Iran's agricultural sector. Accordingly, the gravity model was used for export, applying panel data from 1997 to 2017. Also, the trade balance of Iran's total agricultural and the related sectors’commodities was examined. It should be noted that for the trade balance, time series data from 1978 to 2018 were used. The results of the gravity model show a negative effect for the variable of distance. The coefficients of Iran’s per capita GDP and also the GDP of trading partners are positive, as expected. It was found that a one percent increase in the per capita GDP of Iran causes a rise of 3.42 percent in the export of agricultural products; however,that of importing countries haslow statistical significance. Based on the coefficient obtained for the population, an increase in the population of the importing countries raises the demand for Iran's agricultural products.The degree of trade openness revealed a positive and significant effect on the export of agricultural products. The coefficient for the real exchange rate was found to be around 0.9 percent. It was also found that the volatility of the exchange rate is related directly to the export of agricultural products. Comprehensive sanctions have a negative and significant effect, while less restricting sanctions have an insignificant effect on the export of agricultural products. The global economic crisis has also had a dampening effect on exports. For trade balance, the results show that the value added of the agriculture has a positive effect on the trade balance of entire agriculture and sectors. The real exchange rate has a negative effect on the trade balance of agricultural commodities as a whole and livestock and agronomy sectors, confirming the J-Curve theory while it was not supported for the horticultural sector. Also, the variable of exchange rate volatility was included in the model using two measures of positive and negative series of exchange rate changes and the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effect, but their effect on the trade balance was not the same in terms of both the direction and statistical significance. The trade openness for the agricultural and horticultural sector was found with a positive coefficient, indicating that their production is based on comparative advantage. However, for the sectors of agronomy and livestock, it illustrated a negative effect. Sanctions have also harmed the trade balance.

Purpose- Social sustainability, especially in rural areas, is one of the most important goals of policymakers, planners and managers. However, social sustainability in local communities, such as villages, can be challenged through environmental instabilities. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to analyze the tensions and social dangers in rural areas of Neyshabur, one of the provinces of Iran. Design/methodology/approach- In order to measure the relationship between the independent variable of drought and the dependent variable of social tension, 24 variables were identified in the context of drought, existing tensions and social damage caused by water scarcity in the study area. The required information was collected from documentary studies and also through interviews and questionnaires. One-sample t-test, Pearson correlation, single-variable regression, and VIKOR model were used to analyze the data. Findings- The results show that there is a relationship between water deficit deduced from drought and 22 social unsustainability variables. Based on the results of the regression test and the amount of obtained beta, respectively, the greatest effects of water shortages deduced from drought was on intensifying rural poverty (0.932), increasing living expenses (0.931), and the destruction of small crop and small cultivation (0.924). Also, the results of the VIKOR model showed that there is a difference between the studied villages in terms of the severity of social tensions. Originality/value- This study has been promising to focus on the effects of drought and water scarcity as an environmental unsustainability in shaping and exacerbating tensions and social injuries. Therefore, the results of this study can be effective in recognizing the social impacts of environmental changes in geographical areas and countries facing environmental changes.

Purpose- The consequences of drought and the damages inflicted on the rural community, which are major challenges confronting rural communities to achieve sustainable development, mirror the poor resilience of farmers against this risk. Therefore, the main issue of the current research is to explore the factors affecting Pakdasht farmers' drought resilience. Design/Method/Approach: This paper adopts a descriptive-analytical research method. The data collection is based on library study analysis and field surveys. The main data collection instrument is a questionnaire completed by the subjects (n=381 farmers). Data analysis was conducted using SPSS software as well as t-test, regression, analysis of variance, the COCOSO technique and the COPELAND technique. Finding- The t-test was used to investigate the drought resilience status of villagers. The socio-cultural, psychological, and economic components, except for those related to the extent of damages, environmental factors and institutional performance, and the scale of civil and physical development in the region under study, were in a balanced and favorable condition, but the items of the institutional framework, institutional relations, and technological level and infrastructure were not desirable. The correlation between researches indices in the region is 0.747, meaning that mentioned indices can explain 74% of the variances. The result of the ANOVA test suggested that the villages of Pakdasht County were not significantly different in terms of the psychological index (Sig=0.085) of resilience. Informed by the findings of the COCOSO technique, the farmers of Filestan village are more drought-resistant than the farmers in other villages. Greater participation of people, diversity of economic activities, appropriate physical and civil development, technological advancement and more suitable infrastructure are some of the factors that contribute to the higher resilience of farmers in this village. According to Copeland’s method, the variables of education and awareness as well as the diversity of economic activities of the farmer's household ranked high in terms of importance. Originality/value- The results of this research can help organizations in charge of handling drought in the villages of Pakdasht to gain deeper insights into the existing conditions so that they can enhance the resilience of farmers during drought using the presented solutions. It also allows officials to diversify economic activities and promote complementary businesses as effectively as possible.

Purpose- Village as a residential system has always suffered a lot of damage due to natural hazards such as drought throughout history, and due to the dependence of the rural economy on the agricultural sector, any threat against this sector leads to the weakening of the economic foundations, the village and eventually the economic stagnation of the country. Therefore, the aim of the current research is to evaluate the drought-resilient measures to reduce the vulnerability of rural households located in Rastaq district in Khalil-Abad City, Khorasan-Razavi Province.Design/methodology/approach- The type of research is applied research, and the data was collected by applying a descriptive-analytical method by using documentary sources and field studies (questionnaire). The statistical population of the research is comprised of the heads of rural households living in the study area. As a result, 337 people were selected using Cochran's method. For ranking and spatial analysis of the village, Copras and Vicor techniques were used, and Shannon technique and SPSS software were used for statistical data analysis.Findings- The results showed that among the weights obtained from the paired comparison of the dimensions raised in resilience measures with drought in reducing the vulnerability of rural households, modern irrigation measures with a score of (0.290) have the highest score in resilience measures. Avarane took over with the drought. Finally, in the study area, Niqab village performed better than other villages in terms of resilience measures in dealing with drought.Research limitations/implications- Not having access to statistical information when referring to Jihad Agriculture and Governorship, as well as filling out the questionnaire depending on the topic at the village level and the costs of conducting this research are among the challenges of the present research.Practical implications- In the end, according to the obtained results, it is considered necessary to provide solutions for the resilience of rural households at the level of the villages of this district and to implement the solutions.Originality / value- The present research is significant due to its expression and recognition of different issues surrounding the resilience of households in the face of drought. An important step can be taken in the direction of reducing the vulnerability of rural households to deal with drought in the coming years.

Rural migration crisis is one of the most challenging problems in the socio-economic space of Iran. In this study, the fuzzy approach is applied to examine the effects of some variables like poverty, rural unemployment rate, the rural Gini coefficient, urban to rural wage ratio, drought situation and literacy rate on migration. In order to find the appropriate model, the Tanaka and FLSR fuzzy regression approaches are compared. The effects of the socio-economic variables on rural migration in Iran are examined during the period 1990-2018