شهاب الدین شافی

The Russia-Ukraine war has ignited a complex geopolitical landscape with far-reaching implications. Global trade disruptions, economic strain, and heightened geopolitical tensions are only few of the consequences. This crisis serves as a microcosm of broader power struggles, influenced by historical, regional, and resource-based factors. Iran, although geographically distant from the conflict, is deeply intertwined in this complex web due to overlapping geopolitical interests. Ukraine's strategic position as a grain exporter, coupled with the broader context of NATO expansion and Russia's regional dominance, have placed Iran in a pivotal position. A central question emerges: What type of geopolitical pattern does Iran exhibit in response to the Ukraine crisis? Is it interactive, confrontational, dominance-seeking, influence-oriented, or competitive? To answer this, we will examine Iran's behavior across the various dimensions of geopolitics: geoeconomics, geoculture, geostrategy, and politics. By understanding Iran's approach, we can better assess potential opportunities and risks stemming from this crisis. Grounded theory approach was used for qualitative analysis, focusing on patterns and themes. MaxQDA software was used to analyze data and extract key concepts. Authors conclude that Iran-Ukraine geopolitical relations pattern are confrontational in all three dimensions: geostrategy, geoculture, and geoeconomics.

Futurology is an interdisciplinary field of research that predicts and presents possible futures using diverse methods. Also, Security is the most famous concept in human history and the pursuit of a secure state has been the first choice of political units throughout history. Accordingly, the futurology of the security of Iran is the main topic of this article, which tries to present the secure state and possible and optimal scenarios for the security of Iran in the twenty-year vision. In other words, the objective of this article is to identify the geopolitical criteria affecting the security of Iran and to introduce its desirable security future with a futuristic approach in the twenty-year vision. This article is fundamental research that uses quantitative and qualitative models. First, with the help of existing studies in security, its criteria are classified into six groups: military, economic, geographical, cultural, political, and environmental. Second, the effective criteria for the security of Iran are presented, and third, the opinions of experts are collected through a questionnaire. The data and key criteria for optimal security of Iran in the new century were analyzed and extracted by the TOPSIS method. The results showed that the three criteria of ‘Strengthen infrastructure’, ‘Impacts of Climate Change’, and ‘Increasing military capabilities' are the key geopolitical criteria of the security for Iran. These three criteria create eight security scenarios. Finally, the scenario of ‘strengthen multidimensional infrastructure, adapt to climate change, and increase hardware military capabilities’ with a higher score, should be the criterion for formulating the roposed security perspective of Iran in the new century.