Military capabilities

Futurology is an interdisciplinary field of research that predicts and presents possible futures using diverse methods. Also, Security is the most famous concept in human history and the pursuit of a secure state has been the first choice of political units throughout history. Accordingly, the futurology of the security of Iran is the main topic of this article, which tries to present the secure state and possible and optimal scenarios for the security of Iran in the twenty-year vision. In other words, the objective of this article is to identify the geopolitical criteria affecting the security of Iran and to introduce its desirable security future with a futuristic approach in the twenty-year vision. This article is fundamental research that uses quantitative and qualitative models. First, with the help of existing studies in security, its criteria are classified into six groups: military, economic, geographical, cultural, political, and environmental. Second, the effective criteria for the security of Iran are presented, and third, the opinions of experts are collected through a questionnaire. The data and key criteria for optimal security of Iran in the new century were analyzed and extracted by the TOPSIS method. The results showed that the three criteria of ‘Strengthen infrastructure’, ‘Impacts of Climate Change’, and ‘Increasing military capabilities' are the key geopolitical criteria of the security for Iran. These three criteria create eight security scenarios. Finally, the scenario of ‘strengthen multidimensional infrastructure, adapt to climate change, and increase hardware military capabilities’ with a higher score, should be the criterion for formulating the roposed security perspective of Iran in the new century.

Over the last thirty years, the significance of the regional level has surged to a point where "international security" is now often viewed as a product of "regional security." Regional powers, including Iran, are emerging as pivotal and influential actors. It is believed that regional powers must hold a significant advantage in power resources compared to other states in their region. Studies of regional powers through the lens of international system transformations indicate that states must enhance their interests and power indicators, such as economic and military strength, to stabilize their position as regional powers. This enhancement can lead to a security dilemma, with other states striving to boost their capabilities in response. Conversely, some states might take advantage of power vacuums to establish themselves as regional powers. Regional powers typically boast large populations, high GDP, strong conventional military forces, and, in some cases, nuclear weapons. Achieving regional power status offers extensive benefits but also involves significant responsibilities. This article aims to outline the agenda of regional powers and specifically highlights Iran’s evolving role as a regional leader.